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2019-nCoV death rate

2019-nCoV death rate
Category:
Other
By
sanko
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Description

Predict new coronavirus mortality rate as of 04/15/2020. Now it is 305/(305+443)=40.7%

Decision Logic

We will use "total deaths" and "total recovered" from https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 taken at 13:00 UTC 04/15/2020. Then calculate (total deaths)/(total deaths+ total recovered) percent.

CLOSING IN2020-02-29 00:00:00

7:01PM, Feb 2, 2020 UTC

12:00AM, Feb 29, 2020 UTC

1:00PM, Apr 15, 2020 UTC

WAITING FOR OUTCOME

Total Volume: 0.0155

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>50%
Volume:0.0001
0.000112
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30% to 50%
Volume:0.0002
0.0005265
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20% to 30%
Volume:0.0001
0.000112
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10% to 20%
Volume:0.0001
0.0002505
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<10%
Volume:0.0150
0.061925
# of Bets:2

Discussion

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sanko 2:10PM, Feb 3, 2020 UTC
@Duckio Now it is 362/(362+520)=41% Also created faster bet: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/2019-ncov-death-rate-feb-2020-4916
Duckio 10:43AM, Feb 3, 2020 UTC
This isn't a good bet, because almost all diseases have a less than 10% mortality rate, even Spanish Flu. You should instead have divided it between 0.1-1%, 1-2%, 2-3% etc.

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