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2020 US Presidential Election - Who wins popular vote?
2020 US Presidential Election - Who wins popular vote?
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Description
Which party will win the POPULAR vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?
Decision Logic
The political party who wins the popular vote will be the winner of the bet. The popular vote winner is the candidate with the most total votes - NOT necessarily the electoral college winner.
No early resolution is possible. Betting runs for 1 year, ending 1 month before the results. Bet resolves the day after Election day: November 4th, 2020. In case of a recount that could change the winner of the popular vote, the outcome date will be extended to a point in time when winner is known. Official news source confirms winner.
CLOSING IN2020-10-05 04:59:00
4:42PM, Oct 4, 2019 UTC
4:59AM, Oct 5, 2020 UTC
2:00AM, Nov 5, 2020 UTC
RESOLVED AT 4:37PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Total Volume: 0.6674
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "Democrats"
0.66742799 was split between 25 bettors.
Democrats
| Volume: | 0.4125 |
| # of Bets: | 25 |
Republicans
| Volume: | 0.2537 |
| # of Bets: | 16 |
Other
| Volume: | 0.0012 |
| # of Bets: | 3 |
Discussion
jamieben
9:35PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
The result can only be declared by the official sources after the electoral college has voted. It appears as though the FAKE NEWS have been taken as the official source. Just because all the media (who are all owned by the same few people) decide to start saying Biden won doesn't make it so.
Avalon
7:50PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
@Guedez That said, we do err on the side of caution and accuracy when resolving - which is why many of the election props are being held until Jan 6/7 even though they could practically be resolved already. In this prop specifically though, there is nothing on the horizon that would change the outcome.
Avalon
7:48PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
@Guedez - unfortunately not. We base our resolutions and outcomes as they happen, as trusted sources of information are provided and known. Think about it this way - let's say in 5 years it was determined there was 'massive widespread election fraud' of 'millions of votes'. Do we refund 5 years later? No because the world would have moved on by then. If however, it comes out within the next few weeks, that would be different.
Guedez
2:53PM, Dec 3, 2020 UTC
@Avalon With refund I meant if the Supreme Court or something were to call the election invalid. What would happen then? Wouldn't all election related bets refund?
Avalon
2:05AM, Dec 3, 2020 UTC
It wasn't close at all, and there will never be an invalidation of the results because it is not contested beyond the politically-motivated battleground states where the final outcome was semi-close, all of which combined aren't enough to change this particular prop's outcome.
Avalon
2:03AM, Dec 3, 2020 UTC
With regards to refunds or your thoughts on this being an incorrect decision; consider that even if there were a few *hundred thousand* votes in *all* battleground states that were *all* corrupted (only voted for Democrats) which was NOT the case and was already proved in PA (audit) and GA (hand recount), even then Dems would have won the popular vote.
Avalon
2:00AM, Dec 3, 2020 UTC
@Guedez - this happened because the host has not resolved the prop for more than a few days past their outcome date (afk or missing host) at which point it goes to our moderator team. We have no reason to resolve incorrectly, so there is no sense in waiting or disputing the outcome since we were the ones to resolve it in the first place.
Guedez
11:35AM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC
@Avalon Although I believe the best I could get out of this bet was a refund if the election were to be called invalid, I am much more worried about the fact that it was instantly resolved (without the usual 24 hour waiting, and thus couldn't even be questioned) than that it was actually resolved. But I won't pursue any more of this unless something big actually happens before the next president is decided.
jamieben
9:21AM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC
Avalon: Some reports are saying the voting machines were so corrupt that Trump may have won in a landslide and they were used in 2016 and he possibly won the Popular Vote against Clinton ALSO !! There's a lot more evidence being exposed day by day. I wouldn't pay out any more just yet.
jamieben
9:16AM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC
Avalon: I refer to the voting/Democrats as corrupt NOT Betmoose...
jamieben
9:14AM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC
Avalon: Who's voting figures are you going by? This is an injustice but hey ho....guess corruption runs deep in the world.
Avalon
3:40AM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC
@Guedez There are no pending recounts at this point that would change the overall popular vote count.
jamieben
4:24PM, Nov 27, 2020 UTC
CNN is not 'Official news source'. No bets should be paid out.
Guedez
11:21AM, Nov 27, 2020 UTC
Hey @Avalon ,why was this instantly resolved by an admin? Don't usually bets get a 24 hour waiting period before payout? This bet also have the very same ending as most others in waiting " In case of a recount that could change the winner of the popular vote, the outcome date will be extended to a point in time when winner is known. Official news source confirms winner.".
f84jf85hg7g
4:13AM, Nov 27, 2020 UTC
It's seriously scary how many people believe Trump's baseless claims. I guess this is how personality cults work in third world countries? It's like the same phenomenon as getting scammed by televangelists. I don't understand human beings.
Guedez
3:55AM, Nov 27, 2020 UTC
What the hell was this? Why it 'paid out in 0 hours' rather than the usual 24 hours for reporting?
No evidence? Are you serious? There is a gigantic lawsuit from affidavits to mathematical impossibilities as evidence for voter fraud in Georgia: https://defendingtherepublic.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/COMPLAINT-CJ-PEARSON-V.-KEMP-11.25.2020.pdf
It will inevitably flow out into other states once a precedent is set. Why was this 'ninja resolved'?
Nolyism
4:10PM, Nov 25, 2020 UTC
Doesnt look like there is any actual evidence that votes were switched or really anything related to dominion that would have caused fraud but ok buddy keep hope alive lol. Btw are you talking about these claims?
"AP FACT CHECK: Trump legal team's batch of false vote claims" https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-trump-legal-team-false-claims-5abd64917ef8be9e9e2078180973e8b3
Also an interesting thing yo note is once they get in the court room their not providing evidence of fraud anyway.
Guedez
1:24PM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
Yes there is, the sues regarding the dominion voting machines AND the constitutional sues regarding mail in votes. Both of these can flip the popular vote.
Nolyism
8:02AM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
Ok not sure why this bet hasn't been resolved when other have. Especially since the decision logic stated on this one is the national al popular vote. There isnt anything in the foreseeable future that will shift the votes by millions to take the popular vote from biden.
Nolyism
10:41PM, Nov 20, 2020 UTC
Even Tucker Carlson isnt buying the nonsense that was spewed at the hair dye press conference.
Nolyism
5:07PM, Nov 20, 2020 UTC
Guedez the federal agency that oversees election security said there is no evidence of votes being deleted changed or compromised.
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/trump-dominion-voting-systems-false-accusation/#app
CBS isnt usually what I think of when I think liberal media.
But I'm fine with waiting. I'm fine with recounts and court cases. It's a waste of time but if that's what it takes to ensure election integrity I'm all for it.
Guedez
2:03PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
It is officially contested and to be solved in the courts, there was already a historical discrepancy of 2600 votes which gave Trump a net gain of 800 votes IN A SINGLE COUNTY (there are 3,141 of those in the US). There is more than enough EVIDENCE (Not proof) to suggest a flip is POSSIBLE. Forgive the caps for emphasis.
Carnitastaco
6:38PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
Biden by 5.6M and growing, please settle.
Guedez
1:59PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
There is plenty of evidence (which is not proof, mind you) to not risk the site integrity and all future profits to simply appease to someone random on the comments by calling it early.
Guedez
1:58PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
Not really, if the Dominion Voter System is really a fraud machine, the popular vote can flip once it gets fixed. There were plenty of 'glitches' that switched votes. And the Chairman of Smartmatic, which is liked to Dominion, is on Biden's transition team, at least a interesting conflict of interest: https://www.ptnewsnetwork.com/chairman-of-smartmatic-tied-to-dominion-a-biden-transition-team-member/
NOB
2:02AM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
Pay already, the popular vote is obvious and trump is making baseless claims which are not reason to keep this going
Guedez
1:16PM, Nov 13, 2020 UTC
Trump just twitted that up to 2.7 million votes were "DELETED". Not sure what this mean, because the other accusations of 'glitches' were vote switches. Depending on what goes from this, the popular vote could very well easily flip
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1326926226888544256
Guedez
6:04PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
In case of a recount that could change the winner of the popular vote, the outcome date will be extended to a point in time when winner is known.
I don't think this should be called in yet. Considering Trump got more votes than Obama
NOB
3:55AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
any rough timeline on payout?
Guedez
11:49AM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
I wonder if there was enough fraud that recounts actually flip that. One can only dream
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