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2024 US Presidential Election a Landslide?

2024 US Presidential Election a Landslide?
Category:
Politics
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Description

Do you think the US presidential election will be LANDSLIDE, CLOSE, or RAZOR thin? Choose the winning electoral count.

TRUMP is the presumed Republican nominee. BIDEN is the Democratic incumbent.

US States and DC assign a total of 538 electors, which determines the US presidential election winner. In 2016, Trump won 306-232 which he called a "Massive Landslide Victory". The 2020 the electoral college awarded Biden the same 306-232 margin. Bush-Gore 2000 was a 271-266 razor.

Decision Logic

This bet is resolved based on electoral college COUNT and PARTY (Republican or Democrat) NOT a specific candidate.

Resolved when Steve Kornake announces a final electoral college count. Or by NBC News, if Kornake does not announce the call for the network.

The PARTY does not matter if the highest count is 271 or less. If you are choosing RAZOR, it does not matter which party wins.

CLOSING IN2024-11-05 05:00:00

5:51PM, Jun 21, 2024 UTC

5:00AM, Nov 5, 2024 UTC

5:00AM, Nov 6, 2024 UTC

3.425xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier

Total Volume: 0.0216

LANDSLIDE(D) Dem wins 306+
Volume: 0.0050
0.086875
# of Bets: 1
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

CLOSE(D) Dem wins 272-305
Volume: 0.0042
0.0659745
# of Bets: 4
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

RAZOR(D or R) 271 or less
Volume: 0.0022
0.037822
# of Bets: 3
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

CLOSE(R) Rep wins 272-305
Volume: 0.0044
0.069381
# of Bets: 5
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

LANDSLIDE(R) Rep wins 306+
Volume: 0.0058
0.099283
# of Bets: 5
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Discussion

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Avalon 3:45AM, Jul 23, 2024 UTC
Done.
jagsbeach 6:40PM, Jun 21, 2024 UTC
@Avalon I wonder if you could replace "The PARTY does not matter if the margin is 5 (271-266) or less" with "The PARTY does not matter if the highest count is 271 or less" in the decision logic. There are no bets now except seed.
jagsbeach 6:31PM, Jun 21, 2024 UTC
A point of clarity on the decision logic. The winning count (271) is what matters. The margin against the primary opponent may be different than against all other opponents. So better stated: The PARTY does not matter if the highest count is 271 or less. Yes, a tie is possible.

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