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2024 US Presidential Election a Landslide?

2024 US Presidential Election a Landslide?
Category:
Politics
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Description

Do you think the US presidential election will be LANDSLIDE, CLOSE, or RAZOR thin? Choose the winning electoral count.

TRUMP is the presumed Republican nominee. BIDEN is the Democratic incumbent.

US States and DC assign a total of 538 electors, which determines the US presidential election winner. In 2016, Trump won 306-232 which he called a "Massive Landslide Victory". The 2020 the electoral college awarded Biden the same 306-232 margin. Bush-Gore 2000 was a 271-266 razor.

Decision Logic

This bet is resolved based on electoral college COUNT and PARTY (Republican or Democrat) NOT a specific candidate.

Resolved when Steve Kornake announces a final electoral college count. Or by NBC News, if Kornake does not announce the call for the network.

The PARTY does not matter if the highest count is 271 or less. If you are choosing RAZOR, it does not matter which party wins.

CLOSING IN2024-11-05 05:00:00

5:51PM, Jun 21, 2024 UTC

5:00AM, Nov 5, 2024 UTC

5:00AM, Nov 6, 2024 UTC

RESOLVED AT 3:04AM, Nov 10, 2024 UTC

Total Volume: 0.0216

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "LANDSLIDE(R) Rep wins 306+"

0.0216 was split between 5 bettors.
LANDSLIDE(D) Dem wins 306+
Volume:0.0050
0.086875
# of Bets:1
CLOSE(D) Dem wins 272-305
Volume:0.0042
0.0659745
# of Bets:4
RAZOR(D or R) 271 or less
Volume:0.0022
0.037822
# of Bets:3
CLOSE(R) Rep wins 272-305
Volume:0.0044
0.069381
# of Bets:5
LANDSLIDE(R) Rep wins 306+
Volume:0.0058
0.099283
# of Bets:5

Discussion

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jagsbeach 3:07AM, Nov 10, 2024 UTC
312 (R)
jagsbeach 12:44PM, Nov 7, 2024 UTC
Still waiting for AZ, NV announcement. Highly likely to be Landslide(R).
jagsbeach 2:02PM, Nov 6, 2024 UTC
waiting for media announcement. Result will be Landslide(R) or Close(R).
Avalon 3:45AM, Jul 23, 2024 UTC
Done.
jagsbeach 6:40PM, Jun 21, 2024 UTC
@Avalon I wonder if you could replace "The PARTY does not matter if the margin is 5 (271-266) or less" with "The PARTY does not matter if the highest count is 271 or less" in the decision logic. There are no bets now except seed.
jagsbeach 6:31PM, Jun 21, 2024 UTC
A point of clarity on the decision logic. The winning count (271) is what matters. The margin against the primary opponent may be different than against all other opponents. So better stated: The PARTY does not matter if the highest count is 271 or less. Yes, a tie is possible.

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