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Atlanta Black Male Murder Rate in December

Atlanta Black Male Murder Rate in December
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Description

According to the APD Uniform Crime Reports, out of all the homicides committed in Atlanta in December 2016, how many male perpetrators will be identified as black?

Outcome date is subject to change based on availability of data.

Decision Logic

The winning bet will identify the range in which the ratio of black male homicide perpetrators falls in December 2016.

Information will be pulled from http://www.atlantapd.org/uniformcrimereports.aspx.

The section titled "HOMICIDE COMPARISON BY RACE, SEX, AND ETHNIC ORIENTATION" (or equivalent, if renamed) will be used as the source.

Any homicide where the perpetrator's ethnicity is unknown will be discarded.

Female perpetrators will be discarded.

Example: if there are five black male perpetrators and five white male perpetrators, the 40-60% range would resolve as Yes.

If the December report is not published before the next month's report, the soonest report published after December will be used.

4:47AM, Dec 3, 2016 UTC

4:55AM, Jan 1, 2017 UTC

3:00AM, Jun 2, 2017 UTC

CANCELLED

This bet has been cancelled!

Reason: Source unclear.

0-20
Volume:0.0000
0
# of Bets:0
21-39
Volume:0.0000
0
# of Bets:0
40-60
Volume:0.0000
0
# of Bets:0
61-79
Volume:0.0000
0
# of Bets:0
80-100
Volume:0.0000
0
# of Bets:0

Discussion

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garbagebaby 3:38AM, Feb 8, 2017 UTC
I placed a phone call today to the Atlanta PD to see if they could provide more sources directly. While they directed me to a few different places, none of them contained ethnicity data. Seems like we're out of luck here. Sorry to create work for you guys Avalon!
Avalon 10:14PM, Feb 7, 2017 UTC
We have not found any source which shows murder rate by ethnicity with known perpetrator (as per decision logic). Unless anyone here has any legitimate source we can verify, this prop will be cancelled soon.
garbagebaby 5:12PM, Feb 6, 2017 UTC
*with Betmoose's goahead, that is.
garbagebaby 5:12PM, Feb 6, 2017 UTC
Perpetrator ethnicity was unknown for all all homicides. Per rules, "Any homicide where the perpetrator's ethnicity is unknown will be discarded." Put simply, no data is available, so I do not think it would be fair to resolve this bet for any of the brackets. Betmoose's goahead, bets will be refunded.
sanko 7:05AM, Feb 6, 2017 UTC
Police published December report. 0%
garbagebaby 8:54AM, Jan 26, 2017 UTC
They seem to be restructuring their site a little bit, but, not to fear, the uniform crime reports are still available at http://www.atlantapd.org/i-want-to/uniform-crime-reports/-folder-35 -- I will keep an eye on this. Hopefully they publish December soon, they seem very backed up and were actually supposed to have released it by now!
garbagebaby 12:38AM, Dec 7, 2016 UTC
bill_b: Black Hispanic will count as its own group for the purposes of this market. Only B/M (Black Male) will be counted.
garbagebaby 12:38AM, Dec 7, 2016 UTC
bill_b: Black Hispanic will count as its own group for the purposes of this market. Only B/M (Black Male) will be counted.
bill_b 9:33PM, Dec 6, 2016 UTC
How will HB ("Black Hispanic") be counted?

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