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Bitcoin Cryptography Broken in 2015

Bitcoin Cryptography Broken in 2015


The digital signature scheme of bitcoin with SHA256+secp256k1 ECDSA will be broken before 1 September 2015 by cryptography researchers.
The attack should allow to forge digital signatures for at least a proportion of 1/1 million bitcoin users and steal money from them.
It should be done faster than 2^100 point additions total including the time to examine the data.

Decision Logic

The decision will be based on the best attack known in academic cryptography literature.
The result should be disclosed or publicly demonstrated before 1 Sept 2015.
It should confirmed by a majority of at least 3 other independent researchers with a PhD in cryptography.
Attacks in which the message was not signed correctly e.g. repeated identical randoms are NOT valid attacks.

CLOSING IN2015-08-31 22:55:00

6:39PM, Sep 5, 2014 UTC

10:55PM, Aug 31, 2015 UTC

10:55PM, Sep 1, 2015 UTC

RESOLVED AT 12:14AM, Sep 11, 2015 UTC

Total Volume: 1.290

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "No"

1.29023461 was split between 22 bettors.
# of Bets:6
# of Bets:22


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Nightshader 7:10AM, Sep 11, 2015 UTC
Thank you! :)
Avalon 12:15AM, Sep 11, 2015 UTC
@Nightshader - sorry for the wait, getting through everything now!
Nightshader 9:28PM, Sep 9, 2015 UTC
When will the resolution finish?
Nightshader 9:28PM, Sep 9, 2015 UTC
When will the resolution finish?
clf99 3:31PM, Apr 3, 2015 UTC
i think the encryption could be broken without a massive decline in the btc price because the phd cryptographers who break it want the coin to succeed and will help fix the bug quickly. broken doesnt mean broken by anyone in 30 seconds. it might have taken all year to break one key
wizocwykalvoac 2:51AM, Dec 2, 2014 UTC
@Mozi, yes! Makes no sense at all vote on "Yes". Guaranteed loose.
Mozi 12:22AM, Nov 15, 2014 UTC
Its kinda like betting on the end of the world or more likely economic crash or civil unrest. There is a chance if your right you might not receive the payout.
wizocwykalvoac 1:26AM, Sep 15, 2014 UTC
Who bet on yes is pretty dumb, because if the bitcoin break will not win anything anyway.
SpaceTire 7:03AM, Sep 12, 2014 UTC
What a horrible bet!! lol.
InflatableOrc 6:42PM, Sep 5, 2014 UTC
If someone bets a lot on Yes I'm selling my BTC just in case ;)

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