Bitcoin Halving Effect On Price

Category:

Description

One month after the halving, what effect will it have had on the price of Bitcoin...
Will the price of one bitcoin be Higher or Lower a month after the Halving?

EDIT: if you are betting after the halving please be aware that bets may be refunded if there has already been significant price change. I have requested for this to close to new bets at the halving.

Decision Logic

When block 420,000 (halving block) is mined I will record the price of bitcoin and post it in the comments. I will also note the date and time of the block. That price will be compared to the price of bitcoin one month later.

Price source: Bitstamp USD

3208

CLOSING IN2016-07-10 20:00:00

11:22AM, May 18, 2016 UTC

8:00PM, Jul 10, 2016 UTC

12:00PM, Aug 11, 2016 UTC

RESOLVED AT 1:03PM, Aug 11, 2016 UTC

Total Volume: 0.5137

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "Lower"

0.51372486 was split between 6 bettors.

Higher

Volume:	0.3687
0.36872486
# of Bets:	6

Lower

Volume:	0.1450
0.145
# of Bets:	6

Related see more from Bitcoin

Discussion

RevelationX 3:50PM, Aug 11, 2016 UTC

Man, I should have given this one more thought. In hindsight, I find the question misleading! There were many events that have occurred affecting Bitcoin's price besides "the halving". I should have known better than to leave out the entire population of human element! My mistake, in this case.

kolotoure77294 6:49AM, Aug 10, 2016 UTC

Resolves as Lower.

kolotoure77294 8:05AM, Jul 15, 2016 UTC

Halving was 3 minutes before my previous post. This bet resolves August 9th at the same time of day the halving occurred a month earlier.

topnotch 5:43AM, Jul 15, 2016 UTC

"One month later" should be defined as August 9, otherwise some might claim it means 30 days later, which would be August 8. Also, it would be a good idea to post the exact time of day when the Bitstamp price at halving was determined. Then we know at what time of day the price will be determined one month later.

kolotoure77294 4:49PM, Jul 9, 2016 UTC

Bitstamp price at halving $631.82

kolotoure77294 3:31PM, Jul 9, 2016 UTC

Hi, although there is only just over 1 day left to run I have requested this bet close to new bets when the halving happens, as was my intent when creating this bet. This is not a time-weighted proposition and bets made after the halving have the advantage of seeing the price movements post-halving which is why I believe it should close to new bets at the halving. So if you are betting after the halving please be aware that bets may be refunded if there has already been significant price change.

praine 5:26AM, Jul 2, 2016 UTC

@999silver Ok, well to me "winning the presidential election" and "becoming president" are the same thing... To become president you have to win the election, right?

999silver 4:16AM, Jul 2, 2016 UTC

@praine Read my msg carefully. It says nothing about WIN.

praine 6:07PM, Jul 1, 2016 UTC

@999silver I just asked the question in positive form rather than negative form to make it less confusing for bettors. Voting "Yes" on "Will someone other than Trump/Hillary win" is the same thing as voting "Yes" on "Neither Hillary nor Trump will win". Betting "No" means you believe Hillary or Trump will win.

999silver 3:36PM, Jul 1, 2016 UTC

@praine Thanks for that. I probably wouldn't have spotted it. What I bet is, you'll note, NOT the same thing. ciao

praine 7:04AM, Jul 1, 2016 UTC

@999silver I already made "Will someone other than Hillary or Trump win" and someone already bet "No" on it. https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-someone-other-than-trump-hillary-win-the-election-1950#bets-1

999silver 6:14AM, Jul 1, 2016 UTC

@sirlanka I can't host any bet because I'm new here. Here's a few I'd like to see. NEITHER Hillary NOR Trump will become president in Jan 2017 Resolves TRUE if NEITHER becomes president. Resolves on 2 Feb 2017 12:00 noon New York time. German DAX will go below 6000 by 2017 S&P500 will go below 1100 by 2017 DOW 30 will go below 9000 by 2017 NASDAQ will go below 2500 by 2017 FTSE 100 will go below 3000 by 2017 NIKKEI 225 will go below 9000 by 2017

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