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Bitcoin to top $600 before Aug 2016

Bitcoin to top $600 before Aug 2016
Category:
Bitcoin
By
etile
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Description

The price of one Bitcoin in USD will rise over $600 before Aug 2016 as per Bitstamp .

The bet will resolve early if it passes $600 before then.

Decision Logic

When the difference between a given "Yes" bet time and the event time is less than week, that bet will be refunded.

Should Bitstamp have failed or gone rogue, we will use Coinbase index.

6400
CLOSING IN2016-06-11 23:15:00

6:55PM, Apr 20, 2016 UTC

11:15PM, Jun 11, 2016 UTC

8:20AM, Jun 12, 2016 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 3:25PM, Jun 12, 2016 UTC

Total Volume: 6.717

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "Yes"

6.71721204 was split between 26 bettors.
YES
Volume:4.902
28.69273874
# of Bets:26
NO
Volume:1.815
14.50407145
# of Bets:17

Discussion

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Avalon 12:11AM, Jun 14, 2016 UTC
@praine @etile @kolotoure77294 Just an FYI the 'Avalon' account is used by multiple moderators. That said, apparently what happened was that our mod panel can't refund all but 1 in a given time frame like in this bet; so we couldn't easily keep his bet in unfortunately, and for 0.03 (split between 26 users), we decided not to involve the dev team. I have added this to our feature list for future iterations. -Adam
jagsbeach 6:06PM, Jun 13, 2016 UTC
Interesting challenge here... dealing odds swings, floating time events, and imminent outcomes. All I can say is: I'm so glad I lost and lost BIG!
praine 5:22PM, Jun 13, 2016 UTC
I agree with @kolotoure77294. Conditions were pretty clear.
etile 11:26AM, Jun 13, 2016 UTC
InflatableOrc knew that some Yes side bets can be refunded. InflatableOrc has made No bet with big time-multiplier. See the diffrence: "When the difference between a given "Yes" bet time and the event time is less than week, that bet will be refunded" and "When the difference between a given bet time and the event time is less than week, that bet will be refunded"
kolotoure77294 7:59AM, Jun 13, 2016 UTC
@Avalon But if InflatableOrc's bet had won, no-one would have been refunded and his payouts would have remained the same. He knew the situation (Bitcoin was close to 600) and the odds reflected that, he took a chance and lost - he shouldn't be refunded IMO.
Avalon 5:52AM, Jun 13, 2016 UTC
@goldend819 - we have determined we cannot keep InflatableOrc's wager active while others are refunded as his bet would have been made with a specific payout in mind at the time. If we are returning a materially-significant amount of wagers prior to his bet, his should be returned also. We've considered a case like this previously and determined it would set a dangerous precedent where wagers were kept open even though the payouts would have significantly changed for them.
Avalon 5:46AM, Jun 13, 2016 UTC
@protus - bet outcome was ~23:20 UTC June 11. As per the terms set by the host the bet, all bets within 7 days were to be backed out (23:30 UTC June 4 or later). Your bet was made after this time.
protus 3:06AM, Jun 13, 2016 UTC
@etile So why was mine from 4:50PM, Jun 4, 2016 refunded? There were four others on Jun 4th that didn't get their's refunded?
protus 3:04AM, Jun 13, 2016 UTC
This bet was a real **** show...wasn't it?
praine 11:59PM, Jun 12, 2016 UTC
I'd also like to say that what @topnotch said is very important, especially for the other @etile bets that are currently running. They only become true once they pass the price, not AT the price.
kolotoure77294 7:10PM, Jun 12, 2016 UTC
@Avalon The bet says any bets within a week of $600 for YES will be refunded. So 600 happened 11th June, therefore all bets for YES from 5th - 11th June should be refunded if you follow the terms of this bet.
Avalon 3:54PM, Jun 12, 2016 UTC
@sirlanka source? We see a close tick above 600 at 23:30 utc, which means the actual high would've been between :15 and :30.
Avalon 3:49PM, Jun 12, 2016 UTC
@etile what source are you using for the June 4 date? We do not see anything close to 600 on June 4th
etile 3:29PM, Jun 12, 2016 UTC
Incorrect payouts, moderator notified
etile 3:27PM, Jun 12, 2016 UTC
all Yes side bets after 4th June are refunded
praine 11:42AM, Jun 12, 2016 UTC
Typical sri lanka trying to make a quick buck right before it hits. Read the description next time.
kolotoure77294 11:29AM, Jun 12, 2016 UTC
@sirlanka Read the terms: "When the difference between a given "Yes" bet time and the event time is less than week, that bet will be refunded." ___ Therefore all bets after 4th June are refunded.
sirlanka 9:53AM, Jun 12, 2016 UTC
@Avalon : @etile and @topnitch are correct. Price reached 600 at 23:40, and over at 23:41 GMT. All of my bets were made before this
topnotch 9:03AM, Jun 12, 2016 UTC
The resolution "2016-06-11 23:40:00 597.01 600 597.01 600" is off by a minute. At 23:40:00 BTC reached $600.00 on Bitstamp. It went above $600 one minute later. The conditions "rise over $600" and "passes $600" are not true at $600. They become true above $600, i.e., $600.01 or higher. In this case this doesn't affect the final outcome. In other case it could make a difference.
etile 4:13AM, Jun 12, 2016 UTC
All Yes side bets after 6:46PM, Jun 4, 2016 Anonymous Yes 3.18178365 are refuned
etile 4:11AM, Jun 12, 2016 UTC
2016-06-11 23:40:00 597.01 600 597.01 600
praine 12:21AM, Jun 12, 2016 UTC
All the people who bet after it resolves are hilarious.
Vinh 11:45PM, Jun 11, 2016 UTC
yeh the price keeps rising wth
sirlanka 11:41PM, Jun 11, 2016 UTC
Resolves as yes
etile 10:38AM, Jun 8, 2016 UTC
We need more No bettors! :-)
InflatableOrc 4:24AM, Jun 8, 2016 UTC
I really want to see No win.. hang in there guys! :P
Jamphone 12:56AM, Jun 7, 2016 UTC
This one may be close to over...
praine 7:57AM, Jun 4, 2016 UTC
Or we can win it, then it can blast past the threshold. I prefer that option better. :P
AForceNinja 3:43AM, Jun 4, 2016 UTC
Im with jagsbeach
jagsbeach 9:47PM, Jun 3, 2016 UTC
Here is a bet I hope to lose!

Direct Link (click to highlight):

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Anonymous Bet - care to Login or Sign Up?

Placing bet on ""

Send winnings to:


*For use with standalone wallets (bitcoin-qt, electrum).
Shared wallets (exchanges, multifactor) will not work!

Proceed

Send your bet to this address:

1EbocQk64Kh3bXVEebPcsCtcJoB2mRwNhk

* Minimum bet is 0.0001 BTC

Your bet will be automatically entered when picked up - no confirmations needed!

Done