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Coronavirus Reported Cases

Coronavirus Reported Cases
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Description

What will be the estimated number of Coronavirus cases effective May 31, 2020?

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/14/disease-modelers-see-future-of-covid-19/

For tracking 4 cases were reported on January 20, to 67,090 on inital bet date.

Decision Logic

Based on the WHO situation report figures, the global number of confirmed cases. Based on the figures recorded on the graph for May 31, 2020

This bet may close early if the reported cases exceed the maximum before the closing date.

Source: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

CLOSING IN2020-03-24 04:00:00

9:07AM, Feb 15, 2020 UTC

4:00AM, Mar 24, 2020 UTC

6:26PM, Mar 26, 2020 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 6:31PM, Mar 26, 2020 UTC

Total Volume: 0.0515

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "500001 + Cases"

0.05146084 was split between 7 bettors.
200000 Cases or Less
Volume:0.0000
0
# of Bets:0
200001 to 350000 Cases
Volume:0.0001
0.0008735
# of Bets:1
350001 to 500000 Cases
Volume:0.0110
0.07768
# of Bets:2
500001 + Cases
Volume:0.0404
0.25789165
# of Bets:7

Discussion

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freedom 6:17PM, Mar 26, 2020 UTC
New bet created https://www.betmoose.com/bet/coronavirus-reported-cases-5027#bets-1
freedom 5:57PM, Mar 26, 2020 UTC
Bet date Start 67,090 Feburary 15, 2020 Ended March 26th 510,108 41 Days (Net gain 510,108-67090 =443,018 Cases over 41 Days) Total average gain = 10,805 Cases per Day!
freedom 5:54PM, Mar 26, 2020 UTC
Thanks D_D saw it as well 510,108 HOLY! Last Updated at (M/D/YYYY) 3/26/2020, 11:26:21 AM
d_d 5:41PM, Mar 26, 2020 UTC
Total Confirmed 510,108
freedom 8:37AM, Mar 26, 2020 UTC
Should be done tomorrow ... 3/26/2020, 2:06:19 AM 472,790 ..... Here is Bill Gates new Ted Talk on it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe8fIjxicoo
freedom 7:00AM, Mar 22, 2020 UTC
DAMN 100,000 in 4 days ... this will close at this rate 307,280 Expect a remake ...
freedom 7:11AM, Mar 18, 2020 UTC
March 18 update 200,000 incoming 198,155
freedom 7:43AM, Feb 28, 2020 UTC
Wow https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/14-of-recovered-coronavirus-patients-in-chinas-guang****-tested-positive-again 14% relapse rate Feb 28 count 83,391 20% in less than 15 days
freedom 9:22AM, Feb 15, 2020 UTC
By WHO meant John Hopkins, since they are sourcing differently that will also affect the John Hopkin number. Anyways one of those bets I hope to lose, less is more in this epidemic and that undercounting didn't mess up the model.
freedom 9:16AM, Feb 15, 2020 UTC
This one is interesting for counting purposes the retroactive cases China is reporting will be counted as long as WHO considers them accurate based on their data. There are also concerns about how North Korea may deal with it and if we are peaking or not. Also stats that 1 in 20 cases are being reported. Hard to gauge if it hits 300,000 by next week well .... if Containment is successful and it aims to the lower range of 100,000 then this will be an uphill battle for the virus to make 200,000.

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