Democrats to seize Senate in 2020 US Election

Category:

Description

The current U.S. Senate has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and 2 Independents (as of December 31, 2019). The 2020 Senate election takes place on November 3, 2020. There are 35 seats up in 2020, of which 23 are held by Republicans (does not include any special elections).

Decision Logic

Simple majority needed for control, any Independents elected in 2020 will not be counted. Current Independents, Senators Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont caucus with the Democratic Party and therefore will be considered Democrats. A tie will be decided by the party affiliation of the Vice-President elected in the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. Outcome Date will be extended until resolution of any recounts that may impact outcome.

1431

CLOSING IN2020-11-03 04:00:00

5:38PM, Dec 31, 2019 UTC

4:00AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC

4:00AM, Nov 5, 2020 UTC

RESOLVED AT 2:34PM, Jan 7, 2021 UTC

Total Volume: 0.1425

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "Yes"

0.14247 was split between 11 bettors.

YES

Volume:	0.0788
1.3856035
# of Bets:	11

Volume:	0.0637
1.3038849
# of Bets:	11

Related see more from Politics

Discussion

bill_b 2:19PM, Jan 6, 2021 UTC

The Georgia election is "too close to call" as of this morning. Per Decision Logic, "Outcome Date will be extended until resolution of any recounts that may impact outcome". If Democrats win both GA elections, then bet will resolve "Yes".

Carnitastaco 6:24PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC

thanks MooseMe, not sure why anyone thought this should be settled yet

MooseMe 7:25PM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC

I want to thank everyone for their patience. As of this afternoon, it's looking as if this bet cannot be resolved until the two Georgia runoff elections on January 5th are complete and the winners confirmed.

bill_b 2:58PM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC

Update: Current score is 48-48 with Republicans leading in NC and AK. If those hold, then outcome will be known if Trump is declared President or when the results of the January 5th Georgia runoff election are known. (https://www.wsj.com/articles/control-of-u-s-senate-hinges-on-georgia-results-11604596900)

bill_b 1:51PM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC

Update: Results have not been finalized, but as of this moment "Republicans appear poised to retain a narrow Senate majority after winning a number of tough races and with others remaining too close to call." (https://www.npr.org/2020/11/04/929175457/democrats-hopes-for-senate-majority-fade-as-gop-beats-back-challenges) Will resolve bet as soon as results are clear.

bill_b 6:26PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC

If the results are in doubt or too close to call, then resolution will be pending outcome. "Outcome Date will be extended until resolution of any recounts that may impact outcome."

MooseMe 3:47PM, Oct 2, 2020 UTC

My lawyer tells me to expect the elections to be challenged and for the final confirmed sit-in-Congress winners not to be firmly known for possibly months after November 3rd. While, of course, bet winners will want payouts ASAP, I'm concerned that there will be numerous wrongly announced winners, and because of that, this bet could get resolved wrong before we have the final sit-in-Congress winners. Thoughts?

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