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Dr. Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto

Dr. Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto


Dr. Craig Wright will provide evidence that he is the real Satoshi Nakamoto. Craig will provide publicly verifiable evidence for that claim before the 1st of June, 2016.

Decision Logic

Evidence means either:

  • providing proof of ownership of Satoshi's PGP private key
  • providing proof of ownership of private keys related to the Genesis block or the 10th block (block with height == 9), since the address linking to the latter is known to be in Satoshi's control as he sent money to Hal Finney from there.

Any other "evidence" will be disregarded. So if he moves coins from addresses linking to block 3 or 4, but does nothing else, this will not count as valid evidence.

CLOSING IN2016-05-05 12:40:00

9:53AM, May 4, 2016 UTC

12:40PM, May 5, 2016 UTC

7:50AM, May 6, 2016 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 12:03AM, Jun 1, 2016 UTC

Total Volume: 0.3160

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "No"

0.316 was split between 6 bettors.
# of Bets:3
# of Bets:6


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todu 1:59AM, May 30, 2016 UTC
I have not seen any proper evidence released from Dr. Craig Wright that he is Satoshi Nakamoto. If no one can show any publicly published evidence that I may have missed, then I'm going to resolve this bet as a "No" on 1st of June, 2016 so that payouts to the winners can be made.
antler 4:27PM, May 6, 2016 UTC
One final update — Having spoken more with the site support, I now agree with the action they took. They pointed out that with such influential new information present, the fair thing to do with respect to early bettors would be to create a new bet.
antler 3:42PM, May 6, 2016 UTC
I haven't thought deeply about the issues involved in running a prediction market, but it would seem to make sense — in the future, to avoid that this kind of thing happens again — that bets can only be declared pre-resolved by the bet originator.
antler 3:40PM, May 6, 2016 UTC
I've spoken with site support, and now understand what has happened — all bets made after Craig's most recent update were returned, as the site moderators felt the outcome had been determined. This is unfortunate. Craig's behaviour over the past few days has been erratic and irrational; that's what made this bet interesting. @todo pointed out that the bet should not be closed, and @Avalon publicly agreed with him, but unfortunately _after_ several bets had been refunded.
antler 9:19AM, May 6, 2016 UTC
@Avalon Not sure if I need to @ address you to get pinged. Please see my question below, as I try to understand why my bet was returned. Thanks.
antler 9:14AM, May 6, 2016 UTC
Can you please explain by what policy my and others bets, that as far as I can see were placed legitimately, were "returned"?
Avalon 8:56AM, May 6, 2016 UTC
@todu - we agree with you, him saying he won't does not necessarily invalidate this bet. You're welcome to make a new one if you'd like with a different timeline/condition. Would be very good odds for anyone who still dares to say Yes at this point.
todu 8:45AM, May 6, 2016 UTC
@Avalon: Ok, thanks for clarifying. I choose to wait until the original "Outcome Determined" date (2016-06-01) before resolving this bet. The reason I think this is the most fair I can do is because Craig Wright seems to change his mind a lot and that it's possible that some bet participants still think that there's a chance Craig will yet again change his mind and post actual valid evidence publicly. It's only 24 more days until 2016-06-01 so the wait is not long in any case.
Avalon 8:28AM, May 6, 2016 UTC
@todu No, not in this case. Feel free to leave it unresolved for a week or more. We had to close the bet because the circumstances have now changed. You're welcome to resolve it whenever/however you see fit. If there are any disputes, we will arbitrate at that point only. Otherwise your resolution will be the final one.
todu 8:21AM, May 6, 2016 UTC
@Avalon: So I assume that you as a site-wide moderator are expecting me as a bet moderator to resolve this bet now to a "no"? Because I got an email that requested me to choose a resolution for this bet. You've also changed the "Outcome Determined" date to 24 hours from now, from the original 2016-06-01 "Outcome Determined" date.
Avalon 8:05AM, May 6, 2016 UTC
FYI we'll be leaving this open for about a week post resolution due to all the drama/commotion. @kolotoure77294 is correct in that the outcome can still happen, though for the time being the bet is closed.
praine 6:35PM, May 5, 2016 UTC
It doesn't really matter if he still claims to be Satoshi or not. The decision logic for this bet is that he has to PROVE he is Satoshi Nakamoto, and he clearly stated that he will not prove that he is Satoshi Nakamoto, thus leaving the criteria for "Yes" unable to be fulfilled.
kolotoure77294 6:12PM, May 5, 2016 UTC
But he still claims to be Satoshi, or at least he has NOT admitted it was a hoax. He could still change his mind and decide to move the coins, if he is indeed Satoshi.
praine 3:09PM, May 5, 2016 UTC
Craig Wright declared he would no longer be posting proof to claim he is Satoshi Nakamoto on his website before 12:40 PM UTC. All bets after this post should be disqualified.

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