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GDP Q4 2017 3.0% or greater (USA)

GDP Q4 2017 3.0% or greater (USA)


The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the US Department of Commerce publishes official Real GDP numbers for the USA. They publish 3 estimates, with the third one being considered the final, official number.

Decision Logic

This bet evaluates to Yes if the BEA's third estimate for 4Q 2017 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) scheduled to be announced on March 28, 2018, is 3.0 percent or greater; otherwise, it is No. If the announcement is made early, then we will resolve early. If the announcement is postponed, then we will cancel this bet.

To be clear, we are talking about "Real GDP, percent change from preceding quarter, the seasonally adjuated annual rate" as shown on the related picture. For Q3 2017, the metric we are looking at was 3.2 percent.

CLOSING IN2018-03-12 23:00:00

7:41AM, Jan 1, 2018 UTC

11:00PM, Mar 12, 2018 UTC

10:16PM, Mar 14, 2018 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 10:00PM, Mar 28, 2018 UTC

Total Volume: 0.0521

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "No"

0.0521 was split between 6 bettors.
# of Bets:1
# of Bets:6


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anon12345 9:59PM, Mar 28, 2018 UTC
Well, you guys all win, I lose. But I got really close! I knew the first two reports were going to low ball the actual growth, and only the third would show the full number, which came out to 2.9%: "GDP grew 2.9 percent in the final three months of last year, 0.4 points higher than the prior estimate, the Commerce Department said. And that rate was significantly faster growth than analysts were expecting."
anon12345 10:37PM, Mar 14, 2018 UTC
Hi All, not sure happened here other than that I must have screwed up my submission... My description above clearly says the bet will resolve on March 28 when the 3rd and final estimate is posted. So today is two weeks too early.
panaczech 8:20PM, Mar 4, 2018 UTC
The revised value is 2.5%:
anon12345 7:38AM, Feb 3, 2018 UTC
Hey guys, they almost always revise GDP up for the previous quarter as more data about what happened comes in... But of course you never know.

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