Grexit, Will Greece and the EU reach a deal on Sunday

Category:

Description

Euro zone members have given Greece until the end of the week to come up with a proposal for sweeping reforms in return for loans that will keep the country from crashing out of Europe's currency bloc and into economic ruin.

"The final deadline ends this week," said European Council President Donald Tusk

EU Leaders will meet again on Sunday to make a final decision on whether to approve another bailout for the distressed nation.

Will a deal be reached this Sunday?

Decision Logic

This bet resolves to a YES if a deal will be reached on Sunday July 12 between Greece and the other leaders of the EU.

This bet resolves to NO if no deal will be reached or the decision will be postponed.

3955

CLOSING IN2015-07-11 22:55:00

5:11AM, Jul 8, 2015 UTC

10:55PM, Jul 11, 2015 UTC

7:00AM, Jul 13, 2015 UTC

RESOLVED AT 7:11AM, Jul 13, 2015 UTC

Total Volume: 0.1154

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "Yes"

0.1154 was split between 3 bettors.

YES

Volume:	0.0754
0.103975
# of Bets:	3

Volume:	0.0400
0.054275
# of Bets:	3

Related see more from Politics

Discussion

Avalon 3:55AM, Jul 14, 2015 UTC

@scrooge - I agree that the bet wasn't perfectly worded, but the host is still within a reasonable limit to call it 'Sunday' (but just barely). We also do not care about the flags and never use them to judge. As for the cryptography bet - you're absolutely right and are the first to have pointed that out (we do not pre-moderate any of the bets). We will adjust the outcome time the host has chosen to better reflect his decision logic.

scrooge 8:34PM, Jul 13, 2015 UTC

@Avalon: also, the referral to the outcome time is not valid. Consider f.e. the bet: "bitcoin cryptography broken before Sep. 1". There the outcome time is specified as Sep. 6 - so is Sep. 1 really Sep. 6? Kind of absurd, isn't it? If you will not consider resolving this bet as "NO" which I still think it should be you should at the very least refund all stakes because the outcome was not properly specified.

scrooge 8:28PM, Jul 13, 2015 UTC

@Avalon: I see what you are saying, but I do not follow and consider this a grave mistake. The Original statement reads: "This bet resolves to a YES if a deal will be reached on Sunday July 12 between Greece and the other leaders of the EU" So one should think that this is about July 12 IN EUROPE and not on the US West coast. The host is based in the UK (Europe!) so the referral to other time-zones is far-fetched at least...

Avalon 7:34PM, Jul 13, 2015 UTC

@wirefreedom - we ask in the future to avoid specifying time/dates in your decision logic without a supporting time zone for clarification. If we have people here betting from Australia to California, it's important to pay attention to time zones which can be 20+ hours apart, especially for time-based or time-sensitive events. Thanks!

Avalon 7:33PM, Jul 13, 2015 UTC

For all intents and purposes, the deal was in fact reached. Although it was reached on Monday for most of the world, we have been able to find an official report from ~06:30 UTC July 13 (before the 07:00 UTC chosen outcome time), which can still have been Sunday night in the west coast US. In the future, please be careful to check the bet timeline set by the host (we advise this in our FAQ as well) as we use the grey and red markers as judgement for timelines of the bets.

Avalon 7:28PM, Jul 13, 2015 UTC

@scrooge - we've received your report and I see what you're saying but you have to pay close attention to the time zones. The host did not specify the time zone he is using, though he did specify the outcome time (hover over the red diamond in the timeline). This diamond reads differently depending on your time zone. If the host is from the west coast US, the Greek deal was in fact reached on Sunday for him, and coincides with his chosen outcome time.

wirefreedom 4:28PM, Jul 13, 2015 UTC

No the deal was reached out of the meeting that was scheduled for it. Neither was the decision postponed.

scrooge 9:06AM, Jul 13, 2015 UTC

A deal was reached, but on Monday, NOT on Sunday! Outcome should be "NO".

BitcoinGirl 5:48AM, Jul 8, 2015 UTC

Greece only has about 1 bn Euro left and import most of its food and fuel. There must be an agreement. Greece can not survive without some sort of assistance.

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