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How many electoral votes will Trump ultimately receive?

How many electoral votes will Trump ultimately receive?


Here you can bet on how many electoral votes will Trump ultimately receive when Congress counts the electoral votes on Jan 6th. As of writing Trump is expected to win NC giving him 232 electoral votes. Will he get more as a result of audits and recounts? Could faithless electors give him even more?

Decision Logic

The result will be the official, final count of electoral votes after Congress counts them on Jan 6th, and either accepts or rejects any objections to the count as described in 3 U.S. Code ยง15. This final count includes any faithless electors.

CLOSING IN2021-01-06 05:55:00

5:36AM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC

5:55AM, Jan 6, 2021 UTC

12:00PM, Jan 7, 2021 UTC

RESOLVED AT 5:53PM, Jan 8, 2021 UTC

Total Volume: 0.7716

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "240 or less"

0.77162259 was split between 25 bettors.
240 or less
# of Bets:25
241 - 269
# of Bets:9
# of Bets:15


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Avalon 5:32PM, Jan 9, 2021 UTC
@thor7912 the first states were being counted on the eve of the 6th. The exact outcome time in this prop is technically set at Jan 7, 7am EST, and regardless, when an outcome is happening/in progress of occurring, we wait for that outcome so we can pay out the folks who chose correctly. Lastly, there is no strict condition in the logic that states if they're not finalized by X, it's considered null.
d_d 12:38AM, Jan 9, 2021 UTC
@thor7912 Clearly this was the bet on the 'final count' in Congress that 'includes any faithless electors'. Congress certifies Biden, Harris win. Trump got 232 votes, so [240 or less] is the only logical outcome here. Sorry for your loss. Feel free to try your luck here:
thor7912 11:27AM, Jan 8, 2021 UTC
@Avalon they counted on the 7th. This bet should be refunded just like other bets that were resolved regarding the date on the decision logic. Even if the outcome was not final it solved as of the date. Since this prop didn't have a decision on the final date it should be refunded. I'm sure others will agree with me. Especially when other bets were resolved this way.
Avalon 5:25AM, Jan 8, 2021 UTC
@thor7912 they were counting it on Jan 6th - this is valid to resolve.
thor7912 7:56AM, Jan 7, 2021 UTC
WIll this bet refund? As they have not counted the electors on JAN 6th?
Glider 3:45AM, Dec 22, 2020 UTC
Will Joe Biden get EXACTLY 306 electoral votes? Bet now!
rostrander 3:44AM, Dec 22, 2020 UTC
thor7912 9:47AM, Nov 29, 2020 UTC
Is it possible to close this for betting earlier? It will ruin the bet if people keep on betting closer to the outcome date. It will affect all of the odds if for example 3 days before the outcome date Trump has managed to prove the elections were rigged and flipped the states back to him with 270+ electoral votes and people will keep on betting and ruining the odds for the first betters. Also in other cases it will affect the odds.
freedom 6:41PM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
Dec 14 EC seems like the better date
MooseMe 9:54PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
If I bet on '240 or less' now, I'll almost surely win. The electors must be completed by December 14th and SCOTUS is highly unlikely to interfere. But between now and January 6th of the bet end, so many betters will pile onto the almost definite result of '240 or less' that those who bet that way at this time aren't likely to earn enough to make a bet worthwhile.
jeb_bush 10:00PM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
Great - thanks for the clarification
bitqueen 6:09PM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
@jeb_bush Yes, the outcome will be the official final count of legal votes, so any electors that are invalidated (like the 3 in 2016) will not count. Instead their changed vote or replacement's vote will count.
jeb_bush 1:41AM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
@bitqueen re faithless electors: I don't really think it will make the difference, can you confirm your reading of "faithless electors" regarding those theoretical faithless electors' votes which are subsequently invalidated? E.g. in 2016 a total of 10 faithless electors were recorded, however 3 of these were invalidated due to e.g. state law prohibiting that and the elector either changing their ballot or being replaced. I'm assuming the EC vote count would register only valid EC votes cast?

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