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How many electoral votes will Trump ultimately receive?

How many electoral votes will Trump ultimately receive?


Here you can bet on how many electoral votes will Trump ultimately receive when Congress counts the electoral votes on Jan 6th. As of writing Trump is expected to win NC giving him 232 electoral votes. Will he get more as a result of audits and recounts? Could faithless electors give him even more?

Decision Logic

The result will be the official, final count of electoral votes after Congress counts them on Jan 6th, and either accepts or rejects any objections to the count as described in 3 U.S. Code ยง15. This final count includes any faithless electors.

CLOSING IN2021-01-06 05:55:00

5:36AM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC

5:55AM, Jan 6, 2021 UTC

12:00PM, Jan 7, 2021 UTC

5.610xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier

Total Volume: 0.7143

240 or less
Volume: 0.6153
# of Bets: 21

*assumes current weight and volumes

241 - 269
Volume: 0.0302
# of Bets: 7

*assumes current weight and volumes

Volume: 0.0689
# of Bets: 14

*assumes current weight and volumes


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freedom 6:41PM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
Dec 14 EC seems like the better date
MooseMe 9:54PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
If I bet on '240 or less' now, I'll almost surely win. The electors must be completed by December 14th and SCOTUS is highly unlikely to interfere. But between now and January 6th of the bet end, so many betters will pile onto the almost definite result of '240 or less' that those who bet that way at this time aren't likely to earn enough to make a bet worthwhile.
jeb_bush 10:00PM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
Great - thanks for the clarification
bitqueen 6:09PM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
@jeb_bush Yes, the outcome will be the official final count of legal votes, so any electors that are invalidated (like the 3 in 2016) will not count. Instead their changed vote or replacement's vote will count.
jeb_bush 1:41AM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
@bitqueen re faithless electors: I don't really think it will make the difference, can you confirm your reading of "faithless electors" regarding those theoretical faithless electors' votes which are subsequently invalidated? E.g. in 2016 a total of 10 faithless electors were recorded, however 3 of these were invalidated due to e.g. state law prohibiting that and the elector either changing their ballot or being replaced. I'm assuming the EC vote count would register only valid EC votes cast?

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