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    Midterm elections 2018: The Senate

    Midterm elections 2018: The Senate
    Category:
    Politics
    By
    Lugal
    Share

    Description

    On Tuesday, November 6, 2018, 33 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate will be contested. Today, Republicans have the majority in the Senate. Who will have the majority after the midterm elections?

    Decision Logic

    The bet will be decided by the reporting of CNN and the Washington Post.
    The bet resolves as 50-50 if two parties get 50 votes each.
    The bet resolves as Black swan if something happens that renders the question void: anything from an asteroid impact to totalitarian dictatorship.

    Outcome date has some time buffer in case the decision process should get messy.

    1399
    CLOSING IN2018-10-23 06:00:00

    1:00PM, Nov 10, 2017 UTC

    6:00AM, Oct 23, 2018 UTC

    7:00AM, Nov 8, 2018 UTC

    4.385xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier

    Total Volume: 0.1661

    Republicans
    Volume: 0.0870
    3.335741
    # of Bets: 7
    Payout
    ROI
    0.00
    0%

    *assumes current weight and volumes

    Democrats
    Volume: 0.0680
    2.43593502
    # of Bets: 11
    Payout
    ROI
    0.00
    0%

    *assumes current weight and volumes

    50-50
    Volume: 0.0111
    0.448915
    # of Bets: 4
    Payout
    ROI
    0.00
    0%

    *assumes current weight and volumes

    Third party
    Volume: 0.0000
    0
    # of Bets: 0
    Payout
    ROI
    0.00
    0%

    *assumes current weight and volumes

    Black swan
    Volume: 0.0000
    0
    # of Bets: 0
    Payout
    ROI
    0.00
    0%

    *assumes current weight and volumes

    Discussion

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    Lugal 9:09PM, Jan 20, 2018 UTC
    Good question bill_b, hadn't considered that. I am not American, so please tell me if I'm way off here, but it seems that although they run as independents, they are formally part of the Democratic Caucus. Since the question is which party will control most seats, I will count them as Democrats. Anyone who wants to complain about that, please do it now, not in November. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Caucus_of_the_United_States_Senate
    bill_b 6:25PM, Jan 20, 2018 UTC
    Are Bernie Sanders and Angus King considered Democrats or Third Party candidates?

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