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Midterm elections 2018: The Senate

Midterm elections 2018: The Senate
Category:
Politics
By
Lugal
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Description

On Tuesday, November 6, 2018, 33 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate will be contested. Today, Republicans have the majority in the Senate. Who will have the majority after the midterm elections?

Decision Logic

The bet will be decided by the reporting of CNN and the Washington Post.
The bet resolves as 50-50 if two parties get 50 votes each.
The bet resolves as Black swan if something happens that renders the question void: anything from an asteroid impact to totalitarian dictatorship.

Outcome date has some time buffer in case the decision process should get messy.

1046
CLOSING IN2018-10-23 06:00:00

1:00PM, Nov 10, 2017 UTC

6:00AM, Oct 23, 2018 UTC

7:00AM, Nov 8, 2018 UTC

12.530xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier

Total Volume: 0.1659

Republicans
Volume: 0.0868
3.333797
# of Bets: 6
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Democrats
Volume: 0.0680
2.43593502
# of Bets: 11
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

50-50
Volume: 0.0111
0.448915
# of Bets: 4
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Third party
Volume: 0.0000
0
# of Bets: 0
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Black swan
Volume: 0.0000
0
# of Bets: 0
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Discussion

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Lugal 9:09PM, Jan 20, 2018 UTC
Good question bill_b, hadn't considered that. I am not American, so please tell me if I'm way off here, but it seems that although they run as independents, they are formally part of the Democratic Caucus. Since the question is which party will control most seats, I will count them as Democrats. Anyone who wants to complain about that, please do it now, not in November. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Caucus_of_the_United_States_Senate
bill_b 6:25PM, Jan 20, 2018 UTC
Are Bernie Sanders and Angus King considered Democrats or Third Party candidates?

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