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Monero XMR dumped below 0.00321 again before April 20
Monero XMR dumped below 0.00321 again before April 20
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Description
I recognized Pump&Dump's and predicted dumps before, which motivates me to calm them( = prevent the gamblers from causing too many Short Squeezes and Long Squeezes.)
This is meant to be a rather safe bet, to make the point. Thus I chose a rather high price level, and over 3 weeks to resolve, despite it may be lower sooner.
(This is not about/against XMR generally, see the short time frame)
Decision Logic
Resolves YES, if the price at https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_xmr or the average price at http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/monero/#markets will have been below 0.00321, at any point in time before April 8
2:13AM, Mar 27, 2016 UTC
10:00PM, Mar 31, 2016 UTC
10:30PM, Apr 19, 2016 UTC
CANCELLED
This bet has been cancelled!
Reason: See comments.
YES
| Volume: | 0.0000 |
| # of Bets: | 0 |
NO
| Volume: | 0.0000 |
| # of Bets: | 0 |
Discussion
praine
11:50AM, Mar 28, 2016 UTC
@Avalon
praine
2:58AM, Mar 28, 2016 UTC
Well we came to an agreement that this should be cancelled, regexlove made a new one with his intended stipulations. So that should be done, thanks.
Avalon
2:56AM, Mar 28, 2016 UTC
@praine - if we change the title to specify April 8th, are you still in on this one? Otherwise we can change the logic to April 20th. Host specified he is ok with both so it's up to you. Neither changes affect existing multiplier (just the wording). Otherwise we can cancel it altogether. Thanks
regexlove
7:54AM, Mar 27, 2016 UTC
DONT BET, NEW BET http://bit.ly/Prediction-XMR-dump
regexlove
6:21AM, Mar 27, 2016 UTC
exactly, good catch, you got an alarm for all new posts?:)
i also requested to close (undo) this one
praine
6:18AM, Mar 27, 2016 UTC
To all would be bettors, this bet has been re-made here:
https://www.betmoose.com/bet/monero-xmr-dumped-below-0_00321-again-before-april-20-1837
Don't bet on this one.
regexlove
4:14AM, Mar 27, 2016 UTC
I'm fine both ways, since i think the dump could hypothetically happen only in weeks but likely sooner. By the way @BetMoose, Hosting Parimutuel bets should offer a customizable multiplyer ( For example higher for short/soon to happen events)
praine
4:02AM, Mar 27, 2016 UTC
This can be cancelled without any casualties since we are the only ones who bet. You can just make a new one afterwards. I'll still probably bet, just not as much as I think your prediction for that date has a strong chance of being true.
regexlove
3:59AM, Mar 27, 2016 UTC
i was pretty clear with you in the conversation below
regexlove
3:58AM, Mar 27, 2016 UTC
oh, read your latest comment, do what you like
regexlove
3:57AM, Mar 27, 2016 UTC
i copied your bet despite i feel most likely YES before both dates, since it seems we remain the only ones betting here? (and i dont want to give you my BTC even for a 0.x% chance). Good thing, balanced situation, for anyone else who may still wants to make a point.
praine
3:51AM, Mar 27, 2016 UTC
You were not clear about anything. I'm going to report to get this cancelled as there is a world of difference between the two dates. You gotta double check everything before you submit your bets.
regexlove
3:47AM, Mar 27, 2016 UTC
Praine, oh that is since you 'are the host of the bet now? Told you i meant April 20, stated 2 times and the one time April 8 is a typo. You could have waited. Hope you have fun, if you feel this difference in duration is your chance to fight/dispute about something.
praine
3:32AM, Mar 27, 2016 UTC
BetMoose needs to change all fields to April 8th, not April 20th. April 20th has absolutely nothing to do with this bet.
praine
3:25AM, Mar 27, 2016 UTC
And one more question, about the exact time. I assume this is going by UTC time? That's the time Poloniex uses. So it needs to hit .00321 before 00:00 April 8 UTC for it to be resolved as true?
regexlove
3:21AM, Mar 27, 2016 UTC
Thanks, as said i hope Betmoose can still edit the final date to be all April 20/all the same to look consistent (despite it may not matter if April 20 - or 8)
The Monero price on coinmarketcap is simply an additional way to determine outcome. It covers all markets, which is a more accurate, yet it is only updated every few minutes or so and of minor importance this time since most Monero trade volume happens only on Poloniex and no other exchanges may add Monero soon.
praine
3:03AM, Mar 27, 2016 UTC
So if the Poloniex 'low' between now and April 8th is either .00321 or under then the bet resolves as true? That is strong logic as all you need to do is go on Poloniex and check. And you don't need to wait until April 20th since the host resolves the bet, not BetMoose (but you're new so that's pardonable). Now if this is the case then what does the average on CoinMarketCap have to do with anything?
regexlove
3:00AM, Mar 27, 2016 UTC
(it may not matter for the dump to come but i meant outcome to be checked on April 20 in title and timeline, not April 8 as written in Decision Logic - i asked in the betmoose chat to edit the decision logic.)
regexlove
2:48AM, Mar 27, 2016 UTC
Thanks, yes! it is practically evident/decided then.
Betting ends already after 5 days.
April 20 is when BetMoose will check the outcome.
praine
2:39AM, Mar 27, 2016 UTC
A couple questions. Is this a touch bet? If someone's bid of .00321 or less is matched then this bet resolves as true then and there? If that's the case then why did you put 3 weeks resolution time since the result should be evident on the date you specified?
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