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Party to control the Senate after 2022 Election?

Party to control the Senate after 2022 Election?
Category:
Politics
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Description

This is a market on which party will be elected to control the Senate at the start of the 118th Congress on 1/3/2023.

Because this has an early deadline and in order to minimize any randomness about unforeseen circumstances, this market will be based on both the sitting senators at the end of that day as well as any elected but not yet seated senators.

Note - Decision logic says "seated until 1/7", that should read "seated after 1/3", 1/7 was from an example that was too long

Decision Logic

If someone is elected with a party affiliation but for some reason is not seated until 1/7, they will still count for that party for purposes of this market.

If there is litigation for any seats that is still being contested after 1/3/23 that prohibits an elected Senator from being seated, but that Senator has been called as the winner by at least 2/3 of CNN, FOX, or AP, that person will be considered the winner. A seat with no clear winner called by at least 2/3 of those will be considered empty.

Independents will count as a member of the party they choose to caucus with.

Any tie will go to the party of the sitting Vice President.

CLOSING IN2022-08-14 06:55:00

10:49PM, Aug 13, 2021 UTC

6:55AM, Aug 14, 2022 UTC

7:55AM, Jan 4, 2023 UTC

36.475xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier

Total Volume: 0.0100

YES
Volume: 0.0050
0.2242
# of Bets: 1
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

NO
Volume: 0.0050
0.2242
# of Bets: 1
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Discussion

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Porky 6:58PM, Aug 31, 2021 UTC
So, which party is "Yes" and which party is "No"? I'd suggest deleting this and starting over.

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