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Senate confirms Gorsuch to SCOTUS using Nuclear Option

Senate confirms Gorsuch to SCOTUS using Nuclear Option


Jan 31st, 2017: Trump nominates Neil Gorsuch, a federal judge on the 10th Circuit, to fill the SCOTUS seat vacated by Antonin Scalia. Confirming Gorsuch to SCOTUS requires a simple majority vote in the Senate, but several Dem. senators have expressed their intention to filibuster the nomination because they consider the seat 'stolen' from Obama's nominee, Merrick Garland. 60 votes are needed to end the filibuster.

GOP senators have in return threatened to use the 'Nuclear Option' to abolish the filibuster so Gorsuch can be confirmed by a simple majority vote.

Senate party breakdown: 52 Republican, 44 Democrat, 2 Independent (who caucus and usually vote with the Democrats).

Decision Logic

A confirmation vote is expected by April 10th (could be slightly earlier or later). GOP may take several days to invoke the Nuclear Option, so betting conditions will be:

Betting will end April 7th.
YES wins if the Senate uses the Nuclear Option to confirm Gorsuch to SCOTUS by the end of April 24th. NO wins if Gorsuch is not confirmed in this way by April 25th.

CLOSING IN2017-04-06 04:00:00

8:44AM, Mar 23, 2017 UTC

4:00AM, Apr 6, 2017 UTC

5:56AM, Apr 8, 2017 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 9:27AM, Apr 8, 2017 UTC

Total Volume: 0.1671

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "Yes"

0.16706556 was split between 7 bettors.
# of Bets:7
# of Bets:5


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BenCarson 5:24PM, Apr 7, 2017 UTC
@pelican95 Great! Appreciate it.
pelican95 2:21PM, Apr 7, 2017 UTC
Thanks @BenCarson; reported it yesterday as a yes, just waiting for mods to resolve.
BenCarson 1:13PM, Apr 7, 2017 UTC
@pelican95 you can resolve this early by reporting it

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