Propositions
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The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020
The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020
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Description
The 2020 U.S. Presidential race closes on election day Tuesday NOV3, 2020. The elected president becomes the 46th U.S. President if Trump does not win. State voters will select presidential electors who in turn elect a president and vice president through the electoral college.
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This proposition mimics the 2016 one by sandhog, which opened before major parties nominated final candiates, and closed shortly before election day.
Decision Logic
Final results with major media announcements of the winner. Without a consensus, such as with the 2000 recount that involved the U.S. Supreme Court, the outcome may be delayed until certain.
CLOSING IN2020-11-03 04:55:00
3:34PM, Feb 12, 2020 UTC
4:55AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC
3:00AM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC
RESOLVED AT 4:56PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
Total Volume: 66.97
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "OTHER"
66.96795825 was split between 139 bettors.
TRUMP
| Volume: | 37.73 |
| # of Bets: | 93 |
SANDERS
| Volume: | 0.1464 |
| # of Bets: | 15 |
BUTTIGIEG
| Volume: | 0.0209 |
| # of Bets: | 7 |
BLOOMBERG
| Volume: | 0.0165 |
| # of Bets: | 6 |
OTHER
| Volume: | 29.05 |
| # of Bets: | 139 |
Discussion
QWE
8:11PM, Jan 10, 2022 UTC
Had to revisit this a year later because the rage from @vegtru was so memorable. Has Trump won yet?
999
2:41AM, Dec 24, 2020 UTC
PoorSnowflake, your communication style shows a lack of intelligence.
Same sentiment to the others that also talk like that.
Vegtru, where does it say the part about dispute resolution?
I can't find it.
If it was there, I'm concerned it may have been redacted.
PoorSnowflake
7:05PM, Dec 16, 2020 UTC
thank-you for your bitcoin... I don't like taking advantage of stupid people but I make an exception for trumpanzee supporters... So the only thing better than taking your bitcoins is... ...taking your bitcoin as bitcoin reaches all time highs... so thank-you... snowflakes
jagsbeach
2:01PM, Dec 15, 2020 UTC
The bet was resolved exactly as described, with an unambiguous media consensus projecting the winner. Moderators waited further until state certification. Claims by a party or candidate are not considered.
praine
3:13AM, Dec 10, 2020 UTC
They made a ruling and the Biden bettors won money from the Trump bettors.
praine
3:11AM, Dec 10, 2020 UTC
Betmoose didn't steal anything.
vegtru
2:25AM, Dec 9, 2020 UTC
I e-mailed the admins directly and after replying once, they ignored me for 3 days and pushed the decision through. Their site rules show that they do not payout until disputes are cleared. The disputes were not cleared. They did anyway. Betmoose staff decided against the core bet and prematurely and effectively stole little over half a million dollars in Bitcoin (At the time) from bet placers.
barvI
4:35PM, Nov 29, 2020 UTC
Clearly, this was not resolved correctly by the Betmoose team. Just no one care about what was said in decision logic respect to Supreme Court, and everyone want to rush to resolve (the same way Biden team want to count votes and win as soon as possible). Now its over, but remember this comment: Trump is going to win anyway by legal votes.
p60091
1:06AM, Nov 28, 2020 UTC
@vegtru Appeals court have rejected the Pennsylvania case. It's over.
Psynapse
7:53AM, Nov 26, 2020 UTC
this was bogus.
Decision logic clearly states FINAL results *with* media announcement.
It even stipulates delay if there is no consensus.
what happened?
jagsbeach
11:26AM, Nov 25, 2020 UTC
The trigger was always a media call, but majors like Bovada recently paid out as well. Thanks To everyone for playing.
rot67
7:17AM, Nov 25, 2020 UTC
Transaction is still unconfirmed
praine
2:44AM, Nov 25, 2020 UTC
@vegtru Maybe you should relax and save your outrage, because even though this bet has been solved according to the decision logic there is virtually no chance anything will change even if it was solved at a later date like the other election bets on this site. I see some big changes happened in the hall of fame. Cogratulations to bm870599519652 and inanity who took the top 2 spots with this prop alone!
vegtru
7:49PM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
There is STILL litigation in progress in ALL of the swing states. What the ****.
bear_trill
3:00PM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
Thanks for playing! See you next time!
QWE
2:44PM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
Thank you for the resolution! The decision logic on this was internally consistent, and that's enough for this bet. Other bets have to do with electors and who actually ends up in the white house.
prismspecs
10:49AM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
"The election isn't finished yet" jesus the ****ing level of delusion on Trumpers is mind blowing
vegtru
9:38AM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
The fact remains- the election is far from over. The bet is on the election. There's massive litigation in play. We're waiting for recounts. There's tons of things happening that could change the course of the election. Will they? We don't know. We have to actually let the legal processes happen. I'm just repeating myself constantly on these points, but you guys really wanna cheat the bet and pressure the moderator to make a bad judgment. Shame on you guys. We're still 3 weeks from Dec 14th.
vegtru
9:14AM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
@QWE That's the point of REPORTING BAD LOGIC --because it was no longer following the core of the bet: The NEXT PRESIDENT elected by electors. You want to pretend that the bet wasn't on that? and that the logic didn't spoil? Go read the FAQ about resolutions and logic. We didn't bet on the news. WE BET ON THE ELECTION. The news called it before they even finished counting votes! The news wasn't valid, thus the bet was reported. The bet has never changed: We bet on the elected President.
vegtru
9:05AM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
@fast_charge @Bertuzzi44 No one has been elected yet. You know it. I know it. We all know it. The bet is on who is elected. There is heavy litigation and it's heavily contested. GA is about to recount again! Legal processes for GORE v BUSH took until December 13th to finalize. That is THREE WEEKS AWAY. You guys are trying to cheat half of the people in this bet. And for some reason the moderator is being swayed by your constant harassment after it was stated clearly that we'd be waiting.
vegtru
8:54AM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
"do you know how a case GETS to the Supreme Court? One side has to appeal a final opinion they disagree with. As I said, Third Circuit has granted our appeal, and we already have one case from PA pending before SCOTUS." -- Jenna Ellis, a Trump Lawyer, on one of their cases. None of you are fortune tellers. We don't know how this will end. Some of us only know what the current status is. Some others are completely ignorant to the process.
vegtru
8:53AM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
If you read the GSA statement it said that it does not elect the president and is not an indication of it either. The bet is on the election. The election isn't finished yet. Trump has clearly stated he's not conceding. How are you guys all dishonest about this? They are taking it to the Supreme Court. Recounts are still happening. There is still litigation occurring between now and the electoral vote. @QWE @Hodgkinson Is the election over? No it isn't. Are they still submitting legal cases?
QWE
4:37AM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
@vegtru no one needs to know the future when the decision logic on this bet is already satisfied. Like @Hodgkinson said, there's a difference between this bets and others. You should have bet on a different one if you don't like the decision logic here.
Bertuzzi44
4:04AM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
The formal transition process in place. Trump is now arguing that google rigged it to influence voters, which isn't an argument to overturn the election.
Once Penn is locked in I think you will see the major betting sites finally pay Biden. Then I think it is fair to follow that lead.
Hodgkinson
1:37AM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
Vegtru, it’s done man. I’m not arguing with you any further. The moderator understands the decision logic on this one, and the difference between this and the other election bets. You should try and do the same.
fast_charge
1:37AM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
Fyi, the GSA has now begun the formal transition process.
vegtru
11:31PM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
You guys are trying to rush the bet before litigation finishes. I am saying we need to wait and let the process run its course. As we expected a possible Supreme Court involvement-- the Trump campaign's legal team has stated clearly they are going to take it to the Supreme Court. It's working its way up. You are pretending you know what the future will bring when you really have no idea how this will play out. And you're being completely dishonest to everyone involved.
QWE
10:46PM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
@vegtru weird that you're citing a denial of motion to expedite certiorari prior to the election rather than Alito's order afterwards. The number of ballots affected are only a few thousand, and they were never counted for the total. There are no cases with legally cast ballots that the Supreme Court will invalidate. That just is a fairytale, man.
QWE
10:34PM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
@vegtru yes, that is how it works. Its called the docket. There are no pending cases at the Supreme Court. You're assuming one or more of his cases will even be heard by the Supreme Court, which is not a good assumption to make. The Supreme Court notoriously stays out of state procedural issues involving elections. If they're going to appeal it on Equal Protection grounds on vote access disparities, that's opening a HUGE can of worms that I can guarantee the court does not want any part in
fast_charge
10:20PM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
Fyi, MI just certified Biden's victory in the state.
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