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The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020

The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020


The 2020 U.S. Presidential race closes on election day Tuesday NOV3, 2020. The elected president becomes the 46th U.S. President if Trump does not win. State voters will select presidential electors who in turn elect a president and vice president through the electoral college.
This proposition mimics the 2016 one by sandhog, which opened before major parties nominated final candiates, and closed shortly before election day.

Decision Logic

Final results with major media announcements of the winner. Without a consensus, such as with the 2000 recount that involved the U.S. Supreme Court, the outcome may be delayed until certain.

CLOSING IN2020-11-03 04:55:00

3:34PM, Feb 12, 2020 UTC

4:55AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC

3:00AM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC

RESOLVED AT 4:56PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC

Total Volume: 66.97

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "OTHER"

66.96795825 was split between 139 bettors.
# of Bets:93
# of Bets:15
# of Bets:7
# of Bets:6
# of Bets:139


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vegtru 9:29PM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
Here's SCOTUS Alito response to PA -- --- highlights: "In a law called Act 77, the legislature permitted all voters to cast their ballots by mail but unambiguously required that all mailed ballots be received by 8 p.m. on election day." and "The legislature subsequently made it clear that, in its judgment, the COVID–19 pandemic did not call for any change in the election-day deadline." -- The court has not had their turn yet.
vegtru 6:54PM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
@QWE That's not how the Supreme Court works. It has to work its way up the lower courts first. Are you guys all ignorant? @Hodgkinson The bet was on the election. The logic was contested because the election is a result of the electoral college nomination. It isn't anywhere close to done. There is litigation in progress that needs to finish and can drastically change this election. You guys are in such a rush to cheat this bet. Unbelievable.
QWE 1:34PM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
@vegtru there are no cases pending at the Supreme Court. You can go back to thedonald with all your wishful thinking and fantasies.
prismspecs 12:25PM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
Sorry, it seems you already answered this: today or tomorrow.
prismspecs 11:59AM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
@Avalon, thanks for being on top of this. When can we expect to be paid out?
Hodgkinson 11:27AM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
Give it a rest vegtru, decision is made and it’s the correct one. Media consensus is in and this bet is done. Time to move on with your life.
vegtru 7:55AM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
We all made our bets in good faith that this would play out properly. We ended up having to report what ended up being faulty logic. We knew that this was going to be a heavily contested election. We knew the chance for the Supreme Court was relatively high. I'm simply asking that we wait for the legal processes to finish before rushing judgment.
vegtru 7:46AM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
If we want to argue semantics- "The 2020 U.S. Presidential race closes on election day Tuesday NOV3, 2020. The elected president becomes the 46th U.S. President if Trump does not win. State voters will select presidential electors who in turn elect a president and vice president through the electoral college." This was the bet. This is heavily contested and completely unfinished.
vegtru 7:45AM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC -- Section "Resolution". Number 5. Something is wrong with the bet logic/timeline/options etc. Please report any errors with the red 'Report' button found on every bet page. Please try to explain the error clearly to help communicate your report to our support staff. --- It's disheartening that @Avalon would somehow not be aware that we reported this according to your FAQ properly, and then you reference the logic we reported. I did my reading before I made any bet.
vegtru 7:15AM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but Supreme Court Justice Alito issued a stay for the state of PA the other week. The cases they've submit have to climb the ladder to reach the Supreme Court. This is how the election works. This stuff all has an end date in sight- It's not an indefinite wait that is being requested. If the shoe were on the other foot, I would want to give the other side their time for due process as cited. We all bet on the next President.
vegtru 7:09AM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
@Avalon That's precisely why moderation was requested. The bet was on the election for the President with a crystal clear citation that a supreme court decision would cause delays. The reason you were called in was because the media consensus logic was flawed. That's the very reason you were requested to help. Previously, you folks had agreed to wait for election to play out. Now you're walking that back?
Avalon 5:10AM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
@vegtru please read the decision logic carefully. The second sentence is only applicable if there is no consensus. We have consensus, we have all 'final calls' by all major media, as per the logic. The other props that are election-focused will wait until EC, but this one is clear at this point.
vegtru 5:05AM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
If it never said anything about the Supreme Courts, then we likely wouldn't be here having this conversation right now, but that was a MAJOR stipulation. It appears as though many of you want to ignore this fact out of greed. The outcome is uncertain with all of the pending litigation still in the air. The legal process takes time. You are trying to circumvent all Supreme Court decisions early.
vegtru 4:42AM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC
@reanthony I feel like you guys have a reading problem. BUSH v GORE went to the Supreme Court and was not resolved until December. All of the legal cases, by Trump or others, are making their way up the legal ladder. There are cases going to the Supreme Court, they have committed to it. We need to give it time to play out. This is how the legal process works. We made our bets knowing they would possibly be involved-- and they most definitely are.
reanthony 4:06PM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
Bush v Gore was over one state, FL, over a couple hundred votes. Trump lost 4 battleground states by thousands, not hundreds, of votes. I understand a lot of money was lost here, @vegtru, but as Trump says - "It is what it is."
vegtru 1:45PM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
@Hodgkinson @QWE @fastCharge if you click the report button, you'll see the option for when the decision logic needs moderator intervention. FYI. Myself and many others made our bets knowing that the Supreme Court might be involved in any scenario. They haven't even stepped into the ring yet. How many times do I need to mention BUSH v GORE. Hell- Obama won on signature verification once upon a time. We need to wait for legal process.
vegtru 12:54PM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
Certification is just the state saying that the vote count is accurate and not fraudulent under penalty-- which can still be contested. @Avalon stated that they would likely end the bet upon PA's certification--- but that's NOT the Supreme Court. The SUPREME COURT of the USA takes time. It takes time. We haven't given it much time yet. I believe one case will finally be submit to the Supreme Court next week. BUSH v GORE was December 13th. It's November 22nd. That's 3 weeks from now. Too early.
vegtru 12:21PM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
There are numerous legal ways for Trump to win, the easiest being the Supreme Court ruling that unlawful ballots, counted in secrecy at 4am, which lacked observers/chain of custody/etc, are not to be counted. The states did not change their laws to modify the ballot receipt deadlines, which only the legislature has power to do (and they didn't). Everyone who bet knew that the Supreme Court was probably going to be involved. BUSH v GORE 2000 wasn't decided until December 13th. We are far from it.
vegtru 12:14PM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
@Avalon @BetMoose if you folks consider yourselves honest moderators for this bet, I implore you. It's dishonest to say that there are no pending legal cases that would change the outcome. Trump has filed 3 (soon 4) cases. Are you guys not paying any attention at all? The Supreme Court has not ruled on anything yet, and the PA courts did not even view evidence before dismissing. Thus, just that one it's going to be going to the Supreme Court. It takes TIME to reach the Supreme Court.
vegtru 12:11PM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
@QWE That's not true. You're being dishonest to rush the bet. @prismspecs That's now how the election works. Certification isn't the end all. There are LEGAL battles still happening that need to play out. @Avalon @BetMoose PA is being pushed to the Supreme Court. Just as GORE 2000 didn't happen--- It was not until mid DECEMBER. The bet clearly references 2000 Bush v Gore Supreme Court rulings. This needs to wait for that to run it's course.
prismspecs 10:17AM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
vegtru are you getting your information from Breitbart or something? This is all ********. GA has certified the vote. Everyone in the world understands that this race is a mathematical impossibility to reverse ...... almost everyone
Hodgkinson 8:09PM, Nov 21, 2020 UTC
Good call and thanks Avalon/ Betmoose.
Avalon 6:19PM, Nov 21, 2020 UTC
As an update, we plan on processing payouts on this particular prop on Nov 23rd/24th after PA certifies its results barring any unforeseen circumstances.
QWE 11:30PM, Nov 20, 2020 UTC
There are currently no pending legal cases that would change the outcome of the vote nationally. Biden won, and media consensus agrees. That's what settles this bet. It should be closed.
Hodgkinson 11:07PM, Nov 20, 2020 UTC
Also as an aside, I had election bets with Sportsbet, Ladbrokes and Fairlay and all have now paid out for Biden. Betmoose is lucky last.
Hodgkinson 10:53PM, Nov 20, 2020 UTC
There is media consensus so the logic has been met. Let’s be honest, Trump is incapable of conceding and will go to his grave disputing this. Remember when he said he would have won the popular vote last time except for massive voter fraud? Whatever happened to that? Did 2016 popular vote propositions have to wait until that was investigated or did we just listen to the adults in the room and realise trump was full of ****?
Hodgkinson 10:50PM, Nov 20, 2020 UTC
Decision logic: Final results with major media announcements of the winner. Without a consensus, such as with the 2000 recount that involved the U.S. Supreme Court, the outcome may be delayed until certain.
Hodgkinson 10:48PM, Nov 20, 2020 UTC
@fast_charge I have asked the same question. The website clearly states regarding the decision logic- “ In case of decision disputes, a BetMoose moderator will use only this field to arbitrate.” If that is the case what are we waiting for? I guess this qualifies as disputed (even if it’s only disputed by Q believers), so let’s go with the decision logic.
fast_charge 10:03PM, Nov 20, 2020 UTC
I don't really understand why this market hasn't settled. Major news outlets that have called the race for Biden: FOX, CNN, WSJ, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, NYT, WaPo, RCP, AP, DecisionDeskHQ, Reuters, USATODAY, NPR, NY Post, LA Times, etc. There are tons more. Outlets that haven't called the race for Biden: OAN, Newsmax, Breitbart. How is there no media consensus on the winner?
vegtru 9:19PM, Nov 20, 2020 UTC
@prismspecs actually, the GA SOS just issued a correction an hour ago that they did not certify the vote. Point being-- the news is reporting anything right now. We cannot believe everything that flows in as clearly they were wrong. Back to my original point- we just need to sit tight and wait for everything to run its course. This is only week 2. Gore was 5+ weeks for one state. There's a lot of due process and it's all going to happen slowly. Thus, we wait.

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