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The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020

The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020


The 2020 U.S. Presidential race closes on election day Tuesday NOV3, 2020. The elected president becomes the 46th U.S. President if Trump does not win. State voters will select presidential electors who in turn elect a president and vice president through the electoral college.
This proposition mimics the 2016 one by sandhog, which opened before major parties nominated final candiates, and closed shortly before election day.

Decision Logic

Final results with major media announcements of the winner. Without a consensus, such as with the 2000 recount that involved the U.S. Supreme Court, the outcome may be delayed until certain.

CLOSING IN2020-11-03 04:55:00

3:34PM, Feb 12, 2020 UTC

4:55AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC

3:00AM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC

RESOLVED AT 4:56PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC

Total Volume: 66.97

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "OTHER"

66.96795825 was split between 139 bettors.
# of Bets:93
# of Bets:15
# of Bets:7
# of Bets:6
# of Bets:139


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999 5:57PM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
And so many dead people voted, so yeah recount. No argument.
999 5:56PM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
If you don't understand why the recounts are happening, then you are really uninformed. People got multiple ballots, from name changes, like when a woman marries. Or from previous residences, like state changes, or county changes. The election departments end up mailing out more ballots then there are existing voters in that area, because of the lack of attention to detail. That's been happening all over the country.
999 5:51PM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
Nevada had no intention of counting all the ballots, on election day. They literally were not expecting them to be counted until at least November 16, 2020. But with no actual specified deadline, I would be seriously surprised if they finished counting in Nevada by now. They let that bit of info slip out, on a phone call with the Secretary of State. I don't care if you voted for Biden or Trump. Operate in reality.
Simply_Unlucky 4:57PM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
Not done counting yet Biden is at 290. Are we gonna have to wait till ****ing February?
prismspecs 12:21PM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
Why hasn't this been resolved? Can we stop listening to children and be adults about this?
Hodgkinson 11:10AM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
Truth be told, I’m also a bit disappointed I can’t take my winnings from this bet and make another 10% from chumps like you betting that trump has a chance to overturn this through the courts.
Hodgkinson 11:06AM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
@vegtru Probably not a coincidence that trump supporters are such poor losers considering the example being given by your messiah. You are correct, I am impatient to get my significant winnings from this bet, but to clarify I’m not just stuck on the logic, TRUMP LOST THE ELECTION DUDE!!!! I’m hoping capitals work for getting through to you, it seems to work for trump. It is not heavily disputed anywhere in real world, in the US or internationally. It’s done.
vegtru 8:42AM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
You guys are just desperate. The bet is on the election. Nothing else. Hell, they're not even done counting. You guys have not disputed that. Moderators are involved for a reason. How many times must we repeat ourselves? You bicker about the logic, but you never touch on the actual bet. That's completely dishonest. This is a heavily disputed election and many other places are also choosing to wait because it's the only way to be certain. Sit back. Relax. Stop whining. It will end eventually.
vegtru 8:33AM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
You guys clearly don't know anything about the US election. Election is held. Votes counted. Participants may contest. (*WE ARE HERE*). Results are then certified. Elector votes are cast. Elector votes are counted. The winner is declared. (You lie and pretend we're here). Trump stated today that he does not concede. Some of his legal team have posted that they were gathering information and did not submit their cases yet.
Hodgkinson 11:51PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
“ He only won in the eyes of the FAKE NEWS MEDIA. I concede NOTHING! We have a long way to go. This was a RIGGED ELECTION!” A later tweet. Even trump says Biden won in the eyes of the media. Pretty important phrase for a bet that is determined by media consensus.
Hodgkinson 11:49PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
“ He won because the Election was Rigged....” Trump tweeted today. Hmmm.
Hodgkinson 9:24AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
Exactly right QWE. The wording on this one is crystal clear.
QWE 6:56AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
@vegtru "so I don't think media is the best arbiter for truth in this." then you shouldn't have put money on a bet with decision logic based on the media. Seriously man, I get that you lost and it hurts. The Supreme Court isn't going to take cases that were literally thrown out of court as most of these cases have been. SCOTUS usually stays out of electoral politics and defers to the states for procedural issues. If the states aren't even hearing the cases at all, there's no way for it go higher
Hodgkinson 6:30AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
Anyone thinking the courts will throw out all those ballots should also get your head checked out.
TeamColtra 5:57AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
Anyone thinking that the courts would throw out ballots should get in on
vegtru 7:16PM, Nov 13, 2020 UTC
The thing about The Supreme Court is that if they just throw out ballots that are not legal in their state, per their laws, then many states would fall under it. It would sweep all of the swing states that stopped counting. All it will take is 1 case in the US Supreme Court for this to be true. @Avalon @BetMoose I hope you guys can understand my points and our legal process and hope that you can understand the need to wait to pass judgment on this bet.
vegtru 7:07PM, Nov 13, 2020 UTC
Additionally, there is no reversal for this if you judge wrongly. And we, the subjects of your decision who believe in an honest bet, we simply ask that you wait and ensure that, like many other bets across the web, this is 100% and not 98%. The US Supreme Court decisions might take time and should not be confused with local state supreme courts. Trump still has many paths to victory. Heck-- there's even a chance that the votes get thrown and states must elect. We won't know until we wait.
vegtru 6:47PM, Nov 13, 2020 UTC
There is a finite amount of time before the electors vote and the president is 'crowned'. Before that, there are legal battles happening that need to play out. The outcome of the presidency is not going to go on forever- just until it's 100%. CNN was just likening Trump to Nazis just today, so I don't think media is the best arbiter for truth in this. The next best thing is the EC vote. Certifications can be challenged. There has never been an election like this before.
vegtru 6:41PM, Nov 13, 2020 UTC
@Hodgkinson you have been in a rush to close this bet before the election, even though there are pending lawsuits in literally every swing state. @Avalon There are numerous allegations of fraud including at least 15 affidavits I've seen alone in just one state. Heck, GA isn't even the states that are needed. WI/MI/PA have a ton of of ballots that are heading to the Supreme Court to battle legality. By their own laws, many were not legal. These need to play out completely 'til the dust settles.
Avalon 5:29PM, Nov 13, 2020 UTC
We are waiting until certification of the states in the next 2 weeks on this one. We won't hold this until EC voting like the other props. GA has a hard deadline of Nov 20th and PA is Nov 23rd. We'll likely release this as GA is certified first.
Glider 3:48PM, Nov 13, 2020 UTC
@Hodgkinson I feel you man. I am in the same boat. I guess @Avalon may be waiting for either a concession or the actual certification from the key states as he mentioned in the comments below. I would like to create a few propositions and can't do so until this proposition resolves
Hodgkinson 11:01AM, Nov 13, 2020 UTC
@Avalon Not to beat a dead horse here but I’m quite interested in what you guys are waiting for on this one? Even a legal challenge won’t change the fact that there is currently media consensus. Are you waiting for a certain date or event? I’ve got a decent amount of money tied up in this and want to know when it will become available...
jagsbeach 3:21PM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC
Thanks for the update @Avalon. I. uh. I'd make a lot more if Sanders can pull this off.
Nolyism 6:26AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
Man either way this goes jagsbeach is getting a nice little chunk of change lol
vegtru 3:38AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
@Avalon Thank you! The certification of key states is a solid milestone. Hopefully the recounts and court orders are cleared up rather quickly and we can find a crystal clear resolution in those results.
Avalon 3:09AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
We're following all of the developments of the election quite closely as we review many of our election props. According to the decision logic of this prop, we do believe we are very close to meeting the criteria as we await the certification of key states. We will hold off for a few weeks just to ensure we get this right.
QWE 2:26AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
@vegtru the host could have put the decision logic as "whoever is sworn in as president" - but they didn't. The decision logic was final results and media consensus. If you don't like that, you shouldn't have bet on something that with that decision logic. You're trying to make up your own rules now.
vegtru 1:24AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
The bet is literally in the subject. In the name. In the description. In the URL. The bet is clear. Who is elected the 45/46th President of the United States. It hasn't happened yet. If your guy wins, you get paid. That's how it works. I'm sorry you seem to have a difficulty understanding that.
fast_charge 1:16AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
@vegtru: "This is how the host will determine the outcome." That's what it says when you hover over Decision Logic. The host chose to resolve this bet based on "major media announcements of the winner." The only argument you could make that would justify keeping this bet unresolved is: there is no major media consensus on the outcome of the race.
vegtru 12:37AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
Do you bet on the Superbowl winner, then demand in the 2nd quarter to be paid because your team is ahead? It hasn't even been a week yet. Recounts haven't even finished yet. None of this is anywhere near completion. Worst case, we wait a few weeks for the dust to settle and everybody gets paid out. If you bet money that you need urgently--- you shouldn't be gambling. This was never a short term bet.

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