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The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020

The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020
Category:
Politics
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Description

The 2020 U.S. Presidential race closes on election day Tuesday NOV3, 2020. The elected president becomes the 46th U.S. President if Trump does not win. State voters will select presidential electors who in turn elect a president and vice president through the electoral college.
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This proposition mimics the 2016 one by sandhog, which opened before major parties nominated final candiates, and closed shortly before election day.

Decision Logic

Final results with major media announcements of the winner. Without a consensus, such as with the 2000 recount that involved the U.S. Supreme Court, the outcome may be delayed until certain.

CLOSING IN2020-11-03 04:55:00

3:34PM, Feb 12, 2020 UTC

4:55AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC

3:00AM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC

RESOLVED AT 4:56PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC

Total Volume: 66.97

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "OTHER"

66.96795825 was split between 139 bettors.
TRUMP
Volume:37.73
444.80203707
# of Bets:93
SANDERS
Volume:0.1464
2.53802978
# of Bets:15
BUTTIGIEG
Volume:0.0209
0.361364
# of Bets:7
BLOOMBERG
Volume:0.0165
0.5324315
# of Bets:6
OTHER
Volume:29.05
310.15362056
# of Bets:139

Discussion

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vegtru 8:33AM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
You guys clearly don't know anything about the US election. Election is held. Votes counted. Participants may contest. (*WE ARE HERE*). Results are then certified. Elector votes are cast. Elector votes are counted. The winner is declared. (You lie and pretend we're here). Trump stated today that he does not concede. Some of his legal team have posted that they were gathering information and did not submit their cases yet.
Hodgkinson 11:51PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
“ He only won in the eyes of the FAKE NEWS MEDIA. I concede NOTHING! We have a long way to go. This was a RIGGED ELECTION!” A later tweet. Even trump says Biden won in the eyes of the media. Pretty important phrase for a bet that is determined by media consensus.
Hodgkinson 11:49PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
“ He won because the Election was Rigged....” Trump tweeted today. Hmmm.
Hodgkinson 9:24AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
Exactly right QWE. The wording on this one is crystal clear.
QWE 6:56AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
@vegtru "so I don't think media is the best arbiter for truth in this." then you shouldn't have put money on a bet with decision logic based on the media. Seriously man, I get that you lost and it hurts. The Supreme Court isn't going to take cases that were literally thrown out of court as most of these cases have been. SCOTUS usually stays out of electoral politics and defers to the states for procedural issues. If the states aren't even hearing the cases at all, there's no way for it go higher
Hodgkinson 6:30AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
Anyone thinking the courts will throw out all those ballots should also get your head checked out.
TeamColtra 5:57AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
Anyone thinking that the courts would throw out ballots should get in on https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-courts-overturn-the-2020-presidential-election-5196
vegtru 7:16PM, Nov 13, 2020 UTC
The thing about The Supreme Court is that if they just throw out ballots that are not legal in their state, per their laws, then many states would fall under it. It would sweep all of the swing states that stopped counting. All it will take is 1 case in the US Supreme Court for this to be true. @Avalon @BetMoose I hope you guys can understand my points and our legal process and hope that you can understand the need to wait to pass judgment on this bet.
vegtru 7:07PM, Nov 13, 2020 UTC
Additionally, there is no reversal for this if you judge wrongly. And we, the subjects of your decision who believe in an honest bet, we simply ask that you wait and ensure that, like many other bets across the web, this is 100% and not 98%. The US Supreme Court decisions might take time and should not be confused with local state supreme courts. Trump still has many paths to victory. Heck-- there's even a chance that the votes get thrown and states must elect. We won't know until we wait.
vegtru 6:47PM, Nov 13, 2020 UTC
There is a finite amount of time before the electors vote and the president is 'crowned'. Before that, there are legal battles happening that need to play out. The outcome of the presidency is not going to go on forever- just until it's 100%. CNN was just likening Trump to Nazis just today, so I don't think media is the best arbiter for truth in this. The next best thing is the EC vote. Certifications can be challenged. There has never been an election like this before.
vegtru 6:41PM, Nov 13, 2020 UTC
@Hodgkinson you have been in a rush to close this bet before the election, even though there are pending lawsuits in literally every swing state. @Avalon There are numerous allegations of fraud including at least 15 affidavits I've seen alone in just one state. Heck, GA isn't even the states that are needed. WI/MI/PA have a ton of of ballots that are heading to the Supreme Court to battle legality. By their own laws, many were not legal. These need to play out completely 'til the dust settles.
Avalon 5:29PM, Nov 13, 2020 UTC
We are waiting until certification of the states in the next 2 weeks on this one. We won't hold this until EC voting like the other props. GA has a hard deadline of Nov 20th and PA is Nov 23rd. We'll likely release this as GA is certified first.
Glider 3:48PM, Nov 13, 2020 UTC
@Hodgkinson I feel you man. I am in the same boat. I guess @Avalon may be waiting for either a concession or the actual certification from the key states as he mentioned in the comments below. I would like to create a few propositions and can't do so until this proposition resolves
Hodgkinson 11:01AM, Nov 13, 2020 UTC
@Avalon Not to beat a dead horse here but I’m quite interested in what you guys are waiting for on this one? Even a legal challenge won’t change the fact that there is currently media consensus. Are you waiting for a certain date or event? I’ve got a decent amount of money tied up in this and want to know when it will become available...
jagsbeach 3:21PM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC
Thanks for the update @Avalon. I. uh. I'd make a lot more if Sanders can pull this off.
Nolyism 6:26AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
Man either way this goes jagsbeach is getting a nice little chunk of change lol
vegtru 3:38AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
@Avalon Thank you! The certification of key states is a solid milestone. Hopefully the recounts and court orders are cleared up rather quickly and we can find a crystal clear resolution in those results.
Avalon 3:09AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
We're following all of the developments of the election quite closely as we review many of our election props. According to the decision logic of this prop, we do believe we are very close to meeting the criteria as we await the certification of key states. We will hold off for a few weeks just to ensure we get this right.
QWE 2:26AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
@vegtru the host could have put the decision logic as "whoever is sworn in as president" - but they didn't. The decision logic was final results and media consensus. If you don't like that, you shouldn't have bet on something that with that decision logic. You're trying to make up your own rules now.
vegtru 1:24AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
The bet is literally in the subject. In the name. In the description. In the URL. The bet is clear. Who is elected the 45/46th President of the United States. It hasn't happened yet. If your guy wins, you get paid. That's how it works. I'm sorry you seem to have a difficulty understanding that.
fast_charge 1:16AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
@vegtru: "This is how the host will determine the outcome." That's what it says when you hover over Decision Logic. The host chose to resolve this bet based on "major media announcements of the winner." The only argument you could make that would justify keeping this bet unresolved is: there is no major media consensus on the outcome of the race.
vegtru 12:37AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
Do you bet on the Superbowl winner, then demand in the 2nd quarter to be paid because your team is ahead? It hasn't even been a week yet. Recounts haven't even finished yet. None of this is anywhere near completion. Worst case, we wait a few weeks for the dust to settle and everybody gets paid out. If you bet money that you need urgently--- you shouldn't be gambling. This was never a short term bet.
vegtru 12:21AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
@fast_charge "it was intended to be a bet on who wins" --- Intended? OK so you half understand it. Then you do some mental gymnastics to suit your favor. That's not how betting works. Bet's don't change. We bet on the election winner. That's it. We are still waiting on the election. Click the report button and read what options are available to you. There is a reason it's there. The reason is here now. That's like making a football bet and demanding to be paid in the 3rd quarter while you're up.
vegtru 12:15AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
RealClearPolitics has RESCINDED their call for PA. This is still ongoing. We're not debating who wins-- It hasn't happened yet. The moderators have been called in to judge the bet fairly. The bet was on the election, which they have confirmed, is not finished until inauguration, BUT they hope it will be sooner. You are dishonest cheats trying to steal the bet. Shame on you.
Hodgkinson 11:17PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Under the info tab of the decision logic section it states: In case of decision disputes, a BetMoose moderator will use only this field to arbitrate. The host cannot edit this. So forgetting all of the other ******** and only reading the decision logic it is 100% clear.
Hodgkinson 11:15PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
I’m with you @Simply_Unlucky. The decision logic has been met so it’s time to release our funds.
Simply_Unlucky 7:50PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
I just want my ****ing money. Yall can cry about how "the election was stolen" on 4chan or something. This lawsuit is NOT going anywhere, and don't think the results will change. Stop wasting our time with this "the election was stolen" nonsense
fast_charge 7:16PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@vegtru: Yes, by my read, this market was intended to be a bet on who wins the presidential election. But what we're debating now is how to determine who wins *this bet* (not who wins the presidential election). You seem convinced that this bet must resolve in favor of the candidate who wins 270+ electoral votes. The problem: the host did not structure the bet that way. He easily could have, and in fact, other hosts did, like on the fixed-odds version of this market.
Doger 6:47PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
I guess it really comes down to does the wording of the decision logic mean "Final result" and "Media consensus" or it means the final result of the decision logic is Media consensus. Tbh the wording is a bit fuzzy to me.
vegtru 6:38PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@Carnitastaco I think perhaps you don't know, but a lot of them are in auto-recount territory. They have committed to having recounts in PA and GA as well. You may have missed those pieces of news. Trump has not conceded, has clearly stated the opposite, the counts are not done, the recounts are not done, and the court orders have not fully run their course. If the shoe was on the other foot, this would be the same exact case.

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