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The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020
The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020
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Description
The 2020 U.S. Presidential race closes on election day Tuesday NOV3, 2020. The elected president becomes the 46th U.S. President if Trump does not win. State voters will select presidential electors who in turn elect a president and vice president through the electoral college.
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This proposition mimics the 2016 one by sandhog, which opened before major parties nominated final candiates, and closed shortly before election day.
Decision Logic
Final results with major media announcements of the winner. Without a consensus, such as with the 2000 recount that involved the U.S. Supreme Court, the outcome may be delayed until certain.
CLOSING IN2020-11-03 04:55:00
3:34PM, Feb 12, 2020 UTC
4:55AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC
3:00AM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC
RESOLVED AT 4:56PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
Total Volume: 66.97
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "OTHER"
66.96795825 was split between 139 bettors.
TRUMP
| Volume: | 37.73 |
| # of Bets: | 93 |
SANDERS
| Volume: | 0.1464 |
| # of Bets: | 15 |
BUTTIGIEG
| Volume: | 0.0209 |
| # of Bets: | 7 |
BLOOMBERG
| Volume: | 0.0165 |
| # of Bets: | 6 |
OTHER
| Volume: | 29.05 |
| # of Bets: | 139 |
Discussion
vegtru
12:21AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
@fast_charge "it was intended to be a bet on who wins" --- Intended? OK so you half understand it. Then you do some mental gymnastics to suit your favor. That's not how betting works. Bet's don't change. We bet on the election winner. That's it. We are still waiting on the election. Click the report button and read what options are available to you. There is a reason it's there. The reason is here now. That's like making a football bet and demanding to be paid in the 3rd quarter while you're up.
vegtru
12:15AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC
RealClearPolitics has RESCINDED their call for PA. This is still ongoing. We're not debating who wins-- It hasn't happened yet. The moderators have been called in to judge the bet fairly. The bet was on the election, which they have confirmed, is not finished until inauguration, BUT they hope it will be sooner. You are dishonest cheats trying to steal the bet. Shame on you.
Hodgkinson
11:17PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Under the info tab of the decision logic section it states:
In case of decision disputes, a BetMoose moderator will use only this field to arbitrate. The host cannot edit this.
So forgetting all of the other ******** and only reading the decision logic it is 100% clear.
Hodgkinson
11:15PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
I’m with you @Simply_Unlucky. The decision logic has been met so it’s time to release our funds.
Simply_Unlucky
7:50PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
I just want my ****ing money. Yall can cry about how "the election was stolen" on 4chan or something. This lawsuit is NOT going anywhere, and don't think the results will change. Stop wasting our time with this "the election was stolen" nonsense
fast_charge
7:16PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@vegtru: Yes, by my read, this market was intended to be a bet on who wins the presidential election. But what we're debating now is how to determine who wins *this bet* (not who wins the presidential election). You seem convinced that this bet must resolve in favor of the candidate who wins 270+ electoral votes. The problem: the host did not structure the bet that way. He easily could have, and in fact, other hosts did, like on the fixed-odds version of this market.
Doger
6:47PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
I guess it really comes down to does the wording of the decision logic mean "Final result" and "Media consensus" or it means the final result of the decision logic is Media consensus. Tbh the wording is a bit fuzzy to me.
vegtru
6:38PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@Carnitastaco I think perhaps you don't know, but a lot of them are in auto-recount territory. They have committed to having recounts in PA and GA as well. You may have missed those pieces of news. Trump has not conceded, has clearly stated the opposite, the counts are not done, the recounts are not done, and the court orders have not fully run their course. If the shoe was on the other foot, this would be the same exact case.
vegtru
6:32PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Was this bet for the 45th or 46 US President or not? That's the simplest way to put it. Can you even answer that? In a court of law, you all would dance around this question and be held in contempt. Was this bet for the person who became President? The answer is a SOLID YES. So wait for the election.
Carnitastaco
6:27PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
I'm ok waiting a few days to give the sad MAGAs false hope, but we very clearly have met the decision logic for other. Once Wisconsin recount is done and PA isn't recounting this should be resolved.
fast_charge
3:35PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@QWE: For that interpretation to be right, we would need to believe the Decision Logic means, "Final results [of the presidential election] with major media announcements of the winner."
QWE
1:28PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
The decision logic says, "Final results with major media announcements of the winner"
Final results don't come until any recounts are done. Some states were accepting votes up until Friday.
I have money on 'other' but I'm fine waiting.
Hodgkinson
10:49AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@vegtru, regardless of whether they are wrong, the decision logic is “major media announcements of the winner.” It really doesn’t matter if the media is wrong. If they are in consensus then the requirements for paying the bet have been met.
As I asked before, please answer me this; is there media consensus on a biden win?
vegtru
10:49AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@Hodgkinson I never mentioned Rudi? I'm sorry that you feel the need to be dishonest. Was this bet for the 45th or 46 US President or not?
vegtru
10:46AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@Hodgkinson Was this bet for the 45th or 46 US President? Or was this a bet for news announcements? Do you understand why moderators were requested/brought in? The supreme court case in 2000 was cited. We all knew the risk of a delayed outcome. This was a bet on the next president --- and that is entirely uncertain until the courts have their day and the recounts finish. The deadline is Dec 14th for that. Was this bet for the 45th or 46 US President? Or was this a bet for news announcements?
Hodgkinson
10:41AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Al gore didn’t have media consensus and if you stopped listening to Rudi et al, you would realise that. Some media companies called then rescinded their support of election outcomes. Literally the opposite of consensus.
Hodgkinson
10:39AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
So based on those helpful tidbits the decision logic is extremely clear on this bet- media consensus.
I hope this helps you understand this site for future betting and I am truly sorry if you didn’t understand the process when initially betting- however I did, and there is an opportunity cost to delaying payouts which I’m sure you would understand.
vegtru
10:39AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Al Gore, in 2000, thought he had won the election for ~37 days. Unfortunately he and his party were wrong. The papers were wrong. Everyone was wrong. It took ~37 days to find out. We're in a scenario similar to that--- but in almost 8 different states instead of 1. That's exactly what the clause was for. That's exactly why the moderators are involved. We all have a stake in this. We all deserve our fair shot. We bet on our man, Trump, Sanders, or 'Other'. The electors will vote. This will end.
Hodgkinson
10:37AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Hi @vegtru, you will notice on this site the propositions all have a basic description of the bet which is listed under the “description” heading (if you hit the small info button it states that it introduces the bet.) Then the next section is the “decision logic.” Hitting the info button will explain: This is how the host will determine the outcome, and the sources (if applicable) they will use. In case of decision disputes, a BetMoose moderator will use only this field to arbitrate.”
vegtru
10:31AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
They haven't even finished counting yet--- or recounting. I understand you guys are trying to get them to agree to payout before you have the chance to lose due to a court ruling. I totally get that you are fighting to get your payout before you risk losing it to a lawful process. "What if Trump really did win?" This bet is on the election. Wait it out like adults.
vegtru
10:27AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
The bet is not on "Who is leading the news on the 3rd", or "who is leading the news on the 8th". The bet is who "The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020" is. It's literally in the description. Who is the NEXT PRESIDENT via ELECTORS. Those conditions are NOT met. It is NOT overwhelming. It IS going to the Supreme Court and there has already been a ruling to PA from SC Justice ALITO. If you are confident in your win--- then wait for your win to be confirmed. Due process needs to be followed.
vegtru
10:22AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
"The 2020 U.S. Presidential race closes on election day Tuesday NOV3, 2020. The elected president becomes the 46th U.S. President if Trump does not win. State voters will select presidential electors who in turn elect a president and vice president through the electoral college." -- The states have NOT voted and NOT selected via electors yet. There is MASSIVE contention here. You all are looking to cheat this bet on the PRESIDENTIAL RACE.
vegtru
10:20AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
"The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020" . Nearly every betting market is waiting until it's complete. If you think Biden won, or you think Trump won--- surely it can wait. That's what this bet was and is for. The bet specifically mentions the supreme court case. If you can't see the flaw in your arguments, then I'm glad you are not moderators.
Sve9mark
7:43AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
The Decision Logic should be the only determinate. Bet's were placed, and should be honored based on the decision logic.
fast_charge
7:33AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@vegtru: Let's do a thought experiment and assume every word you've written is accurate (i.e., 80 electoral votes are up for grabs, recounts have been ordered, court challenges are pending, etc.). Even in that fantasy world, this bet should still resolve in favor of OTHER. For better or worse, you placed a bet in a market whose outcome is decided by major media announcements of the winner. Every major media outlet has called this race for Biden.
Hodgkinson
7:31AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Agreed, this bet is super clear on what is required to trigger payouts, that may be getting lost in the noise around the other bets.
On the fixed price bet option, while I think the appeals and court cases will be ultimately dismissed I understand the payout being delayed until the (trump appointed) GSA grants Biden access to transition funding. Beyond that anything is excessive imo.
fast_charge
7:26AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
From comments in other markets, they aren't waiting on a concession. They're waiting "until the count is fully complete and a more certain picture is visible." Which doesn't seem unreasonable for a bet that resolves in favor of the candidate winning 270+ electoral votes. But this market should be settled right now. I don't understand why they're waiting. I guess they're planning to treat this as an electoral vote market, in spite of the explicit language of the Decision Logic.
Sve9mark
7:21AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Decision logic: "Final results with major media announcements of the winner." This clearly meets the decision logic @BetMoose.
Hodgkinson
7:06AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Yep, this meeting the requirements of the decision logic.
No ambiguity that I can see @BetMoose? Any reason the bet hasn’t been settled? Hopefully you aren’t waiting for a concession on this one as a)it’s not required for the bet to settle & b) trump will never bring himself to do it.
Sve9mark
7:02AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Yes. Fox News, AP, ABC, NBC, CNN. Literally, all "major media" have announced that Biden has won.
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