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The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020

The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020
Category:
Politics
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Description

The 2020 U.S. Presidential race closes on election day Tuesday NOV3, 2020. The elected president becomes the 46th U.S. President if Trump does not win. State voters will select presidential electors who in turn elect a president and vice president through the electoral college.
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This proposition mimics the 2016 one by sandhog, which opened before major parties nominated final candiates, and closed shortly before election day.

Decision Logic

Final results with major media announcements of the winner. Without a consensus, such as with the 2000 recount that involved the U.S. Supreme Court, the outcome may be delayed until certain.

CLOSING IN2020-11-03 04:55:00

3:34PM, Feb 12, 2020 UTC

4:55AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC

3:00AM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC

RESOLVED AT 4:56PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC

Total Volume: 66.97

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "OTHER"

66.96795825 was split between 139 bettors.
TRUMP
Volume:37.73
444.80203707
# of Bets:93
SANDERS
Volume:0.1464
2.53802978
# of Bets:15
BUTTIGIEG
Volume:0.0209
0.361364
# of Bets:7
BLOOMBERG
Volume:0.0165
0.5324315
# of Bets:6
OTHER
Volume:29.05
310.15362056
# of Bets:139

Discussion

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vegtru 6:32PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Was this bet for the 45th or 46 US President or not? That's the simplest way to put it. Can you even answer that? In a court of law, you all would dance around this question and be held in contempt. Was this bet for the person who became President? The answer is a SOLID YES. So wait for the election.
Carnitastaco 6:27PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
I'm ok waiting a few days to give the sad MAGAs false hope, but we very clearly have met the decision logic for other. Once Wisconsin recount is done and PA isn't recounting this should be resolved.
fast_charge 3:35PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@QWE: For that interpretation to be right, we would need to believe the Decision Logic means, "Final results [of the presidential election] with major media announcements of the winner."
QWE 1:28PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
The decision logic says, "Final results with major media announcements of the winner" Final results don't come until any recounts are done. Some states were accepting votes up until Friday. I have money on 'other' but I'm fine waiting.
Hodgkinson 10:49AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@vegtru, regardless of whether they are wrong, the decision logic is “major media announcements of the winner.” It really doesn’t matter if the media is wrong. If they are in consensus then the requirements for paying the bet have been met. As I asked before, please answer me this; is there media consensus on a biden win?
vegtru 10:49AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@Hodgkinson I never mentioned Rudi? I'm sorry that you feel the need to be dishonest. Was this bet for the 45th or 46 US President or not?
vegtru 10:46AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@Hodgkinson Was this bet for the 45th or 46 US President? Or was this a bet for news announcements? Do you understand why moderators were requested/brought in? The supreme court case in 2000 was cited. We all knew the risk of a delayed outcome. This was a bet on the next president --- and that is entirely uncertain until the courts have their day and the recounts finish. The deadline is Dec 14th for that. Was this bet for the 45th or 46 US President? Or was this a bet for news announcements?
Hodgkinson 10:41AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Al gore didn’t have media consensus and if you stopped listening to Rudi et al, you would realise that. Some media companies called then rescinded their support of election outcomes. Literally the opposite of consensus.
Hodgkinson 10:39AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
So based on those helpful tidbits the decision logic is extremely clear on this bet- media consensus. I hope this helps you understand this site for future betting and I am truly sorry if you didn’t understand the process when initially betting- however I did, and there is an opportunity cost to delaying payouts which I’m sure you would understand.
vegtru 10:39AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Al Gore, in 2000, thought he had won the election for ~37 days. Unfortunately he and his party were wrong. The papers were wrong. Everyone was wrong. It took ~37 days to find out. We're in a scenario similar to that--- but in almost 8 different states instead of 1. That's exactly what the clause was for. That's exactly why the moderators are involved. We all have a stake in this. We all deserve our fair shot. We bet on our man, Trump, Sanders, or 'Other'. The electors will vote. This will end.
Hodgkinson 10:37AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Hi @vegtru, you will notice on this site the propositions all have a basic description of the bet which is listed under the “description” heading (if you hit the small info button it states that it introduces the bet.) Then the next section is the “decision logic.” Hitting the info button will explain: This is how the host will determine the outcome, and the sources (if applicable) they will use. In case of decision disputes, a BetMoose moderator will use only this field to arbitrate.”
vegtru 10:31AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
They haven't even finished counting yet--- or recounting. I understand you guys are trying to get them to agree to payout before you have the chance to lose due to a court ruling. I totally get that you are fighting to get your payout before you risk losing it to a lawful process. "What if Trump really did win?" This bet is on the election. Wait it out like adults.
vegtru 10:27AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
The bet is not on "Who is leading the news on the 3rd", or "who is leading the news on the 8th". The bet is who "The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020" is. It's literally in the description. Who is the NEXT PRESIDENT via ELECTORS. Those conditions are NOT met. It is NOT overwhelming. It IS going to the Supreme Court and there has already been a ruling to PA from SC Justice ALITO. If you are confident in your win--- then wait for your win to be confirmed. Due process needs to be followed.
vegtru 10:22AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
"The 2020 U.S. Presidential race closes on election day Tuesday NOV3, 2020. The elected president becomes the 46th U.S. President if Trump does not win. State voters will select presidential electors who in turn elect a president and vice president through the electoral college." -- The states have NOT voted and NOT selected via electors yet. There is MASSIVE contention here. You all are looking to cheat this bet on the PRESIDENTIAL RACE.
vegtru 10:20AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
"The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020" . Nearly every betting market is waiting until it's complete. If you think Biden won, or you think Trump won--- surely it can wait. That's what this bet was and is for. The bet specifically mentions the supreme court case. If you can't see the flaw in your arguments, then I'm glad you are not moderators.
Sve9mark 7:43AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
The Decision Logic should be the only determinate. Bet's were placed, and should be honored based on the decision logic.
fast_charge 7:33AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@vegtru: Let's do a thought experiment and assume every word you've written is accurate (i.e., 80 electoral votes are up for grabs, recounts have been ordered, court challenges are pending, etc.). Even in that fantasy world, this bet should still resolve in favor of OTHER. For better or worse, you placed a bet in a market whose outcome is decided by major media announcements of the winner. Every major media outlet has called this race for Biden.
Hodgkinson 7:31AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Agreed, this bet is super clear on what is required to trigger payouts, that may be getting lost in the noise around the other bets. On the fixed price bet option, while I think the appeals and court cases will be ultimately dismissed I understand the payout being delayed until the (trump appointed) GSA grants Biden access to transition funding. Beyond that anything is excessive imo.
fast_charge 7:26AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
From comments in other markets, they aren't waiting on a concession. They're waiting "until the count is fully complete and a more certain picture is visible." Which doesn't seem unreasonable for a bet that resolves in favor of the candidate winning 270+ electoral votes. But this market should be settled right now. I don't understand why they're waiting. I guess they're planning to treat this as an electoral vote market, in spite of the explicit language of the Decision Logic.
Sve9mark 7:21AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Decision logic: "Final results with major media announcements of the winner." This clearly meets the decision logic @BetMoose.
Hodgkinson 7:06AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Yep, this meeting the requirements of the decision logic. No ambiguity that I can see @BetMoose? Any reason the bet hasn’t been settled? Hopefully you aren’t waiting for a concession on this one as a)it’s not required for the bet to settle & b) trump will never bring himself to do it.
Sve9mark 7:02AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Yes. Fox News, AP, ABC, NBC, CNN. Literally, all "major media" have announced that Biden has won.
Hodgkinson 5:47AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
So simply put, is there media consensus on a biden win?
Hodgkinson 5:46AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Regardless of the fantasy some of you guys have that it is still in play, it might be helpful to imagine the decision logic of this bet as a flow chart. Read the decision logic and see below. Has there been major media announcements and media consensus on the winner? Yes= Decision logic reached and winners can be paid. (hint-this is where we are) No= Without a consensus, such as with the 2000 recount that involved the U.S. Supreme Court, the outcome may be delayed until certain.
vegtru 4:44AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
I'll say it again: The current #'s are roughly Trump 232, Biden 226. There are 80 electoral votes in dispute in 7 states. ALL disputes must be resolved by these State Legislatures by December 14th, regardless of audits, recounts, lawsuits. 6 of those legislatures are majority R's. The election is far from over and no one has been elected yet. With all the information about automatic recounts, the disputes, ec, you still choose to be so very dishonest.
vegtru 4:42AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@grolsch There are 80 electoral votes in dispute in 7 states. ALL disputes must be resolved by these State Legislatures by December 14th, regardless of audits, recounts, lawsuits. 6 of those legislatures are majority R's. The current #'s are roughly Trump 232, Biden 226. Why are you in such a rush if you're so certain that he's lost? They have until December 14th by the law. The disputes must run their course. You are being dishonest. You don't know the results of the election yet.
grolsch 4:03AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@vegtru Notwithstanding your annoying condescension and God complex: Major news orgs have declared the winner. Judges in GA, MI, AZ and PA have dismissed Trump's lawsuits as frivolous. No case is on the SCOTUS docket from the filing of a writ of certiorari. A recount will not be enough to wipe out the tens of thousands of votes that Biden has on Trump. You are asking for a hail Mary miracle. It won't happen. The people have spoken, now respect their decision and stop wincing.
vegtru 4:00AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
That's not even counting the MI "glitches" which flipped Trump votes to Biden, or recently deceased voters that confirmed absentee ballots and voted after death, or WI where over 100% of the registered voters voted. My point is--- the election is far from over. Hopefully the mods agree that this needs to be waited on, and not hastily decided. We all know that the EC will have to vote on it and also the inauguration will happen.
vegtru 3:54AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@grolsch As of 3 hours ago--- AZ is within automatic recount numbers. With ~80k remaining votes. PER THE NEW YORK TIMES. -As of 8 hours ago --- NV is within automatic recount numbers, with an unknown amount remaining --- PER THE NEW YORK TIMES. As of 8 hours ago-- GA is within automatic recount numbers and they have confirmed they will. --- PA's House Speaker has stated they will be recounting and auditing -- AND THE SCOTUS HAS ORDERED THEM TO SET ASIDE BALLOTS AFTER THE DEADLINE.
vegtru 3:46AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@grolsch unlike you, I am paying very close attention to this election. and on behalf of all of the people who bet in this, I think EVERYONE deserves this to conclude with the TRUE results of the election. Why don't you make a side bet about your allegations that "all the fraud allegations are bogus" and I'll gladly take you up on that. And please stop spreading lies. This is a serious bet for many and you feel the need to taint it and not be patient for the candidates to have their due process.

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