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The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020
The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020
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Description
The 2020 U.S. Presidential race closes on election day Tuesday NOV3, 2020. The elected president becomes the 46th U.S. President if Trump does not win. State voters will select presidential electors who in turn elect a president and vice president through the electoral college.
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This proposition mimics the 2016 one by sandhog, which opened before major parties nominated final candiates, and closed shortly before election day.
Decision Logic
Final results with major media announcements of the winner. Without a consensus, such as with the 2000 recount that involved the U.S. Supreme Court, the outcome may be delayed until certain.
CLOSING IN2020-11-03 04:55:00
3:34PM, Feb 12, 2020 UTC
4:55AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC
3:00AM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC
RESOLVED AT 4:56PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
Total Volume: 66.97
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "OTHER"
66.96795825 was split between 139 bettors.
TRUMP
| Volume: | 37.73 |
| # of Bets: | 93 |
SANDERS
| Volume: | 0.1464 |
| # of Bets: | 15 |
BUTTIGIEG
| Volume: | 0.0209 |
| # of Bets: | 7 |
BLOOMBERG
| Volume: | 0.0165 |
| # of Bets: | 6 |
OTHER
| Volume: | 29.05 |
| # of Bets: | 139 |
Discussion
Hodgkinson
5:47AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
So simply put, is there media consensus on a biden win?
Hodgkinson
5:46AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Regardless of the fantasy some of you guys have that it is still in play, it might be helpful to imagine the decision logic of this bet as a flow chart. Read the decision logic and see below.
Has there been major media announcements and media consensus on the winner?
Yes= Decision logic reached and winners can be paid. (hint-this is where we are)
No= Without a consensus, such as with the 2000 recount that involved the U.S. Supreme Court, the outcome may be delayed until certain.
vegtru
4:44AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
I'll say it again: The current #'s are roughly Trump 232, Biden 226. There are 80 electoral votes in dispute in 7 states. ALL disputes must be resolved by these State Legislatures by December 14th, regardless of audits, recounts, lawsuits. 6 of those legislatures are majority R's. The election is far from over and no one has been elected yet. With all the information about automatic recounts, the disputes, ec, you still choose to be so very dishonest.
vegtru
4:42AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@grolsch There are 80 electoral votes in dispute in 7 states. ALL disputes must be resolved by these State Legislatures by December 14th, regardless of audits, recounts, lawsuits. 6 of those legislatures are majority R's. The current #'s are roughly Trump 232, Biden 226. Why are you in such a rush if you're so certain that he's lost? They have until December 14th by the law. The disputes must run their course. You are being dishonest. You don't know the results of the election yet.
grolsch
4:03AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@vegtru Notwithstanding your annoying condescension and God complex: Major news orgs have declared the winner. Judges in GA, MI, AZ and PA have dismissed Trump's lawsuits as frivolous. No case is on the SCOTUS docket from the filing of a writ of certiorari. A recount will not be enough to wipe out the tens of thousands of votes that Biden has on Trump. You are asking for a hail Mary miracle. It won't happen.
The people have spoken, now respect their decision and stop wincing.
vegtru
4:00AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
That's not even counting the MI "glitches" which flipped Trump votes to Biden, or recently deceased voters that confirmed absentee ballots and voted after death, or WI where over 100% of the registered voters voted. My point is--- the election is far from over. Hopefully the mods agree that this needs to be waited on, and not hastily decided. We all know that the EC will have to vote on it and also the inauguration will happen.
vegtru
3:54AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@grolsch As of 3 hours ago--- AZ is within automatic recount numbers. With ~80k remaining votes. PER THE NEW YORK TIMES. -As of 8 hours ago --- NV is within automatic recount numbers, with an unknown amount remaining --- PER THE NEW YORK TIMES. As of 8 hours ago-- GA is within automatic recount numbers and they have confirmed they will. --- PA's House Speaker has stated they will be recounting and auditing -- AND THE SCOTUS HAS ORDERED THEM TO SET ASIDE BALLOTS AFTER THE DEADLINE.
vegtru
3:46AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@grolsch unlike you, I am paying very close attention to this election. and on behalf of all of the people who bet in this, I think EVERYONE deserves this to conclude with the TRUE results of the election. Why don't you make a side bet about your allegations that "all the fraud allegations are bogus" and I'll gladly take you up on that. And please stop spreading lies. This is a serious bet for many and you feel the need to taint it and not be patient for the candidates to have their due process.
vegtru
3:41AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@grolsch The courts didn't throw anything out. SC Justice ALITO had to send notice to PA twice because they disobeyed the ruling. The SCOTUS has ruled on PA, we're waiting on recounts, and we're waiting on additional investigation. The ******** Chair of the Federal Election Commission Trey Trainor believes voter fraud is taking place in states still counting ballots. So why don't you sit down, stop spreading lies, and wait for the election to complete properly. And stop spreading lies.
vegtru
3:37AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
In the end of the day, one of them is going to be elected president, and the bet will run its full course. I think we can all agree on that. One of them will be elected president and that's what we bet on.
grolsch
3:31AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@vegtru It's not just me who's confident. It's literally all major news organizations in the US. Fox News, ABC, AP, NYTimes, Politico etc. Why is this so hard to grasp? Trump lost the election. All his voter fraud allegations are complete bogus; hence why the courts threw them out.
The people decide elections - Not courts. There is nothing SCOTUS can do to fix this, unless they wish to disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of mail in voters, notably African Americans.
vegtru
3:27AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
The newspapers and media printed "President Gore" for some 37 days. I think it's safe to say that this is a highly disputed election. President Gore never happened. This is a bet on who is the next President of the United State. The Supreme Court has already ruled on PA. We are still waiting for results. What's the harm in waiting for the truth?
vegtru
3:25AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@grolsch If you are so confident that this is a win for Biden--- then why would you object to waiting for the courts to decide? For the recounts to occur? If you think it's an impossibility--- that's your opinion and you're welcome to have it-- but that's not how the election works. In MI, they reversed 6000 votes from Biden to Trump ("glitch") and a R House member won their county. Just ONE county. We have to wait for this to pan out. Regardless of who is elected-- we need to wait for it.
vegtru
3:22AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@grolsh We're not talking about historically. There has never been an election like this. You're being completely dishonest. You're completely disregarding the electoral process and trying to rush judgment on something that IS STILL IN COURT. If the recounts are in favor of Biden vs Trump--- It's that simple. The path to victory for Trump is with the SUPREME COURT. We have to wait out the process through its entirety. We cannot reverse BTC transactions for mistakes.
vegtru
3:19AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@Hodgkinson This is not about "who is vocal". This is about the election. There are going to be recounts in many states. AZ/NV haven't been called either. Other states were prematurely called by media. NEWSMAX is standing by the fact that the courts need to have their process completed. The US SUPREME COURT has ordered PA to set aside all ballots that have arrived after the cut off time. There will be a recount and there are MANY states that are within the margins for automatic recounts.
Hodgkinson
3:03AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
99% of the world seems to accept the result, it just seems that the remaining 1% is very vocal...
Hodgkinson
3:01AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
“ Final results with major media announcements of the winner” seems to be the basis for awarding. Are there any networks not calling this yet?
Hodgkinson
3:00AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Hey @BetMoose are you able to give us some feedback on what we are waiting for in terms of resolution on this? I understand there is ambiguity in the fixed price bet but I don’t see it here.
grolsch
12:54AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@vegtru "maybe in a week you won't be". Perhaps in some alternate reality. The Trump train has already derailed. There is no mathematical way to make up for this. Historically, recounts have (at most) moved the needle with upwards of 1.000 votes. What you're asking for, is a miracle. You'd have to flip AZ, GA, MI and PA! Tens of thousands of votes. That's impossible!
Your boy Trump lost. Now be a real man, and own up to it.
vegtru
12:41AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@grolsch They are still counting. Arizona just posted another batch 30 minutes ago. It's CLOSE in the STATE TOTALS. ---- you are completely dishonest. You are trying to rush the process because maybe you're in the lead now--- but maybe in a week you won't be. We are likely going to see recounts in MI/PA/WI/GA/AZ/NV/NC. You clearly have no idea how the presidential process works and shame on you.
grolsch
12:40AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@vegtru And I'm really sorry to break this to you - but the process IS OVER. Biden has won - and decisively so.
grolsch
12:38AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@vegtru Au contraire, Pierre! Justice Sam Alito ordered PA to segregate the ballots, acting on his own, responding to an emergency request! This is NOT a Supreme Court case. Each judge oversees different federal districts. The 2000 recount was settled by the ENTIRE court.
The fact that you seek to stall this decision (when every major news organization in the US has declared the winner), and while Trump is obviously lying, means it is you who is defrauding people!
vegtru
12:06AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@grolsch The SCOTUS has declared PA to set aside votes and the House Speaker of PA has announced that they will be recounting. GA is also recounting. This process is FAR from over. That's the whole point of the clause--- THE SUPREME COURT is involved. They are taking all of these cases very seriously. You clearly have zero understanding with how the system works. You are being dishonest and I don't appreciate you trying to commit fraud against everyone who has placed a bet here in good faith.
vegtru
12:00AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
PRESIDENT GORE -- NEVER happened. PRESIDENT DEWEY -- NEVER happened. This bet is who will be the 46th president. It took 37 days for GORE v BUSH. We need to be patient and allow the legal process to complete.
grolsch
11:44PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@vegtru "The numbers are too close".
No, they're not. This market should've already been resolved. The fact that Trump lies and obfuscates reality should have zero impact on the outcome of this market. Courts have already tossed out Trump's lawsuits in PA, MI and AZ. Biden won decisively - 306 Electoral College votes.
vegtru
11:40PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
"the 2000 recount that involved the U.S. Supreme Court, the outcome may be delayed until certain." --- The numbers are too close. They are STILL counting. They ARE recounting. They've SAID they would be doing it. There are MANY court cases. There is a LOT more to go. This is literally what's happening now. MANY places have stated that it is TOO EARLY to judge. We need to wait for the legal process to run its course.
999
11:28PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
Ok, that's reassuring.
Thank you.
Good luck everybody.
fast_charge
11:14PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@999: Yes, the polls closed Nov-3, but votes continue to be counted in the following days, as is the case with every general election. The folks who bet on TRUMP seem to have ignored the Decision Logic here, which states explicitly that the bet resolves with major media announcements of the winner. The good news for you: it seems like BM is giving you a gift and treating this as an electoral vote market, even though that's not what the host created.
fast_charge
11:09PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@999: The moderators are reviewing this bet. OTHER wallets have not gotten paid. BM hasn't released the funds. The bet resolution is not "twisted." The host has 24 hours to set the outcome after the bet closes; otherwise he he forfeits his commission.
999
8:56PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
I would like a response, without the need for misplaced comments.
I know my argument is hard to challenge.
Give me a satisfying response.
The description says voting ends Nov3.
States added ballots days later.
This is a twisted bet resolution.
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