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The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020

The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020
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Description

The 2020 U.S. Presidential race closes on election day Tuesday NOV3, 2020. The elected president becomes the 46th U.S. President if Trump does not win. State voters will select presidential electors who in turn elect a president and vice president through the electoral college.
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This proposition mimics the 2016 one by sandhog, which opened before major parties nominated final candiates, and closed shortly before election day.

Decision Logic

Final results with major media announcements of the winner. Without a consensus, such as with the 2000 recount that involved the U.S. Supreme Court, the outcome may be delayed until certain.

CLOSING IN2020-11-03 04:55:00

3:34PM, Feb 12, 2020 UTC

4:55AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC

3:00AM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC

RESOLVED AT 4:56PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC

Total Volume: 66.97

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "OTHER"

66.96795825 was split between 139 bettors.
TRUMP
Volume:37.73
444.80203707
# of Bets:93
SANDERS
Volume:0.1464
2.53802978
# of Bets:15
BUTTIGIEG
Volume:0.0209
0.361364
# of Bets:7
BLOOMBERG
Volume:0.0165
0.5324315
# of Bets:6
OTHER
Volume:29.05
310.15362056
# of Bets:139

Discussion

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vegtru 3:41AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@grolsch The courts didn't throw anything out. SC Justice ALITO had to send notice to PA twice because they disobeyed the ruling. The SCOTUS has ruled on PA, we're waiting on recounts, and we're waiting on additional investigation. The ******** Chair of the Federal Election Commission Trey Trainor believes voter fraud is taking place in states still counting ballots. So why don't you sit down, stop spreading lies, and wait for the election to complete properly. And stop spreading lies.
vegtru 3:37AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
In the end of the day, one of them is going to be elected president, and the bet will run its full course. I think we can all agree on that. One of them will be elected president and that's what we bet on.
grolsch 3:31AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@vegtru It's not just me who's confident. It's literally all major news organizations in the US. Fox News, ABC, AP, NYTimes, Politico etc. Why is this so hard to grasp? Trump lost the election. All his voter fraud allegations are complete bogus; hence why the courts threw them out. The people decide elections - Not courts. There is nothing SCOTUS can do to fix this, unless they wish to disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of mail in voters, notably African Americans.
vegtru 3:27AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
The newspapers and media printed "President Gore" for some 37 days. I think it's safe to say that this is a highly disputed election. President Gore never happened. This is a bet on who is the next President of the United State. The Supreme Court has already ruled on PA. We are still waiting for results. What's the harm in waiting for the truth?
vegtru 3:25AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@grolsch If you are so confident that this is a win for Biden--- then why would you object to waiting for the courts to decide? For the recounts to occur? If you think it's an impossibility--- that's your opinion and you're welcome to have it-- but that's not how the election works. In MI, they reversed 6000 votes from Biden to Trump ("glitch") and a R House member won their county. Just ONE county. We have to wait for this to pan out. Regardless of who is elected-- we need to wait for it.
vegtru 3:22AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@grolsh We're not talking about historically. There has never been an election like this. You're being completely dishonest. You're completely disregarding the electoral process and trying to rush judgment on something that IS STILL IN COURT. If the recounts are in favor of Biden vs Trump--- It's that simple. The path to victory for Trump is with the SUPREME COURT. We have to wait out the process through its entirety. We cannot reverse BTC transactions for mistakes.
vegtru 3:19AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@Hodgkinson This is not about "who is vocal". This is about the election. There are going to be recounts in many states. AZ/NV haven't been called either. Other states were prematurely called by media. NEWSMAX is standing by the fact that the courts need to have their process completed. The US SUPREME COURT has ordered PA to set aside all ballots that have arrived after the cut off time. There will be a recount and there are MANY states that are within the margins for automatic recounts.
Hodgkinson 3:03AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
99% of the world seems to accept the result, it just seems that the remaining 1% is very vocal...
Hodgkinson 3:01AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
“ Final results with major media announcements of the winner” seems to be the basis for awarding. Are there any networks not calling this yet?
Hodgkinson 3:00AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Hey @BetMoose are you able to give us some feedback on what we are waiting for in terms of resolution on this? I understand there is ambiguity in the fixed price bet but I don’t see it here.
grolsch 12:54AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@vegtru "maybe in a week you won't be". Perhaps in some alternate reality. The Trump train has already derailed. There is no mathematical way to make up for this. Historically, recounts have (at most) moved the needle with upwards of 1.000 votes. What you're asking for, is a miracle. You'd have to flip AZ, GA, MI and PA! Tens of thousands of votes. That's impossible! Your boy Trump lost. Now be a real man, and own up to it.
vegtru 12:41AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@grolsch They are still counting. Arizona just posted another batch 30 minutes ago. It's CLOSE in the STATE TOTALS. ---- you are completely dishonest. You are trying to rush the process because maybe you're in the lead now--- but maybe in a week you won't be. We are likely going to see recounts in MI/PA/WI/GA/AZ/NV/NC. You clearly have no idea how the presidential process works and shame on you.
grolsch 12:40AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@vegtru And I'm really sorry to break this to you - but the process IS OVER. Biden has won - and decisively so.
grolsch 12:38AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@vegtru Au contraire, Pierre! Justice Sam Alito ordered PA to segregate the ballots, acting on his own, responding to an emergency request! This is NOT a Supreme Court case. Each judge oversees different federal districts. The 2000 recount was settled by the ENTIRE court. The fact that you seek to stall this decision (when every major news organization in the US has declared the winner), and while Trump is obviously lying, means it is you who is defrauding people!
vegtru 12:06AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@grolsch The SCOTUS has declared PA to set aside votes and the House Speaker of PA has announced that they will be recounting. GA is also recounting. This process is FAR from over. That's the whole point of the clause--- THE SUPREME COURT is involved. They are taking all of these cases very seriously. You clearly have zero understanding with how the system works. You are being dishonest and I don't appreciate you trying to commit fraud against everyone who has placed a bet here in good faith.
vegtru 12:00AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
PRESIDENT GORE -- NEVER happened. PRESIDENT DEWEY -- NEVER happened. This bet is who will be the 46th president. It took 37 days for GORE v BUSH. We need to be patient and allow the legal process to complete.
grolsch 11:44PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@vegtru "The numbers are too close". No, they're not. This market should've already been resolved. The fact that Trump lies and obfuscates reality should have zero impact on the outcome of this market. Courts have already tossed out Trump's lawsuits in PA, MI and AZ. Biden won decisively - 306 Electoral College votes.
vegtru 11:40PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
"the 2000 recount that involved the U.S. Supreme Court, the outcome may be delayed until certain." --- The numbers are too close. They are STILL counting. They ARE recounting. They've SAID they would be doing it. There are MANY court cases. There is a LOT more to go. This is literally what's happening now. MANY places have stated that it is TOO EARLY to judge. We need to wait for the legal process to run its course.
999 11:28PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
Ok, that's reassuring. Thank you. Good luck everybody.
fast_charge 11:14PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@999: Yes, the polls closed Nov-3, but votes continue to be counted in the following days, as is the case with every general election. The folks who bet on TRUMP seem to have ignored the Decision Logic here, which states explicitly that the bet resolves with major media announcements of the winner. The good news for you: it seems like BM is giving you a gift and treating this as an electoral vote market, even though that's not what the host created.
fast_charge 11:09PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@999: The moderators are reviewing this bet. OTHER wallets have not gotten paid. BM hasn't released the funds. The bet resolution is not "twisted." The host has 24 hours to set the outcome after the bet closes; otherwise he he forfeits his commission.
999 8:56PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
I would like a response, without the need for misplaced comments. I know my argument is hard to challenge. Give me a satisfying response. The description says voting ends Nov3. States added ballots days later. This is a twisted bet resolution.
999 6:28PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
I don't know what's going on with bitcoin moving behind the scenes? Did OTHER wallets get paid? That's gonna be complicated to reverse isn't it? If Trump is announced president. What has betmoose done with the bitcoin and what are they planning on doing with it? This is the serious confusion I am experiencing. How would Trump bets get paid out, if the news is suddenly very different 3 weeks from now. I think you understand the concern. Accurate data makes happy losers, either outcome.
fast_charge 5:42PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@Avalon: I would distinguish Eirik's fixed odds version of the 2020 presidential race. As that bet does not rely on media announcements, I understand waiting before final settlement. But that's not the case here. Comments here about fraudulent news media or American election mechanics are totally misplaced.
fast_charge 5:33PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@Avalon: the user hosting the bet made it clear in the Decision Logic and in subsequent comments to this discussion board that the winner of this bet would be decided by "major media announcements of the winner." Every major outlet has called the race for Biden. The Decision Logic could instead have said that the bet will resolve in favor of the candidate who wins 270+ electoral votes. But it doesn't say that. I just want to understand what you will be looking for in order to settle this bet.
999 5:06PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
Dear lord the HODL magic I wanna spew on this board. Give me a break.
999 5:04PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
I was expecting this thing to not be resolved until December. We can wait patiently like grown ups. I am appalled by the state of this bet. It is filthy.
999 5:00PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
That's why it's called gambling. Because you better be ready to lose everything. Especially when casinos are rigged.
999 4:58PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
If this thing is decided based on fraudulent news media, then Betmoose loses all credibility forever. Don't be stupid.
fast_charge 3:51AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
This bet is not based on electoral votes won. It's based on "major media announcements of the winner." There were other contracts on this site that were tied to electoral votes -- people could have bet there instead. There is certainly media consensus here: virtually every major outlet has called this race for Biden: ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, CNN, MSNBC, CNBC, DecisionDeskHQ, AP, NYT, WSJ.

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