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The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020
The 45th or 46th U.S. President in 2020
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Description
The 2020 U.S. Presidential race closes on election day Tuesday NOV3, 2020. The elected president becomes the 46th U.S. President if Trump does not win. State voters will select presidential electors who in turn elect a president and vice president through the electoral college.
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This proposition mimics the 2016 one by sandhog, which opened before major parties nominated final candiates, and closed shortly before election day.
Decision Logic
Final results with major media announcements of the winner. Without a consensus, such as with the 2000 recount that involved the U.S. Supreme Court, the outcome may be delayed until certain.
CLOSING IN2020-11-03 04:55:00
3:34PM, Feb 12, 2020 UTC
4:55AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC
3:00AM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC
RESOLVED AT 4:56PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
Total Volume: 66.97
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "OTHER"
66.96795825 was split between 139 bettors.
TRUMP
| Volume: | 37.73 |
| # of Bets: | 93 |
SANDERS
| Volume: | 0.1464 |
| # of Bets: | 15 |
BUTTIGIEG
| Volume: | 0.0209 |
| # of Bets: | 7 |
BLOOMBERG
| Volume: | 0.0165 |
| # of Bets: | 6 |
OTHER
| Volume: | 29.05 |
| # of Bets: | 139 |
Discussion
999
6:28PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
I don't know what's going on with bitcoin moving behind the scenes?
Did OTHER wallets get paid?
That's gonna be complicated to reverse isn't it?
If Trump is announced president.
What has betmoose done with the bitcoin and what are they planning on doing with it?
This is the serious confusion I am experiencing.
How would Trump bets get paid out, if the news is suddenly very different 3 weeks from now.
I think you understand the concern.
Accurate data makes happy losers, either outcome.
fast_charge
5:42PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@Avalon: I would distinguish Eirik's fixed odds version of the 2020 presidential race. As that bet does not rely on media announcements, I understand waiting before final settlement. But that's not the case here. Comments here about fraudulent news media or American election mechanics are totally misplaced.
fast_charge
5:33PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@Avalon: the user hosting the bet made it clear in the Decision Logic and in subsequent comments to this discussion board that the winner of this bet would be decided by "major media announcements of the winner." Every major outlet has called the race for Biden. The Decision Logic could instead have said that the bet will resolve in favor of the candidate who wins 270+ electoral votes. But it doesn't say that. I just want to understand what you will be looking for in order to settle this bet.
999
5:06PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
Dear lord the HODL magic I wanna spew on this board.
Give me a break.
999
5:04PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
I was expecting this thing to not be resolved until December.
We can wait patiently like grown ups.
I am appalled by the state of this bet.
It is filthy.
999
5:00PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
That's why it's called gambling.
Because you better be ready to lose everything.
Especially when casinos are rigged.
999
4:58PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
If this thing is decided based on fraudulent news media, then Betmoose loses all credibility forever.
Don't be stupid.
fast_charge
3:51AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
This bet is not based on electoral votes won. It's based on "major media announcements of the winner." There were other contracts on this site that were tied to electoral votes -- people could have bet there instead. There is certainly media consensus here: virtually every major outlet has called this race for Biden: ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, CNN, MSNBC, CNBC, DecisionDeskHQ, AP, NYT, WSJ.
vegtru
1:28AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
I can go on and on. My point is-- the election is far from over. I just don't want to worry that a decision will be made, before the country itself makes it, and the many of us who voted get a legitimate, lawful, truthful, and clean resolution. I saw some crazy big bets in there and I think they deserve to sleep without worrying about a hasty decision being made here. That's all. Thank you
vegtru
1:25AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
Case in point 1) GA has a recount. PA has ar ecound. NV has arecount. WI has a recount. MI has a ercount. AZ has a recount. If they're within .5%, it's free. Otherwise the Trump campaign must pay 3 million or so per state. Which he's likely going to do- he's fundraising like mad right now. --- 2) Fraud lawsuits involving USPS workers who backdated ballots, 3) Glitch in ballot counting software giving Biden Trump votes.
Avalon
12:43AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@vegtru - as per the Decision Logic, we are looking for 'consensus'. What that means is a little up in the air right now however we believe in a few weeks will be more clear.
vegtru
12:14AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
Also, I'm surprised at the lack of people chiming in about how this needs to be done right. Where are the honest people at? If you guys don't know how the American election mechanics work and are just winging it-- surely you can understand the need for this MILLION DOLLAR BET between us to be TRUTHFUL and CLEAN.
vegtru
12:11AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@Avalon If Trump was awarded the win, but there was litigation, would you wait? I understand there is a lot of hatred for Trump everywhere. We placed our bets in good faith that this would not end until it was CLEAR. It clearly is CONTESTED right now. The clearest way at this point with a contested election, is by Jan 20th, actual inauguration. The second best is the electoral college vote in December. Can we get a commitment to resolution not being passed until we have our due process??
vegtru
12:07AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@Avalon There is pending LITIGATION, potential ADDITIONAL recounts (PA/GA are up there, maybe AZ). We can't PRETEND that these don't exist. The election is not even CLOSE to being called. "AZ,NV,GA" are NOT moot. GORE V BUSH -- WAS 242 BUSH, 271 GORE... We know how that turned out. This needs to be done properly. Can we get a commitment to that?
vegtru
12:02AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@Avalon Before Jan20th, I can agree, but there's more than just AZ, NV, and GA... That's actually dishonest. The courts are still in play and must make rulings. I hope you can acknowledge that fact. If the court orders ANY of the states--- and the votes are invalidated--- you cannot discount even ONE. Just as the election needs to follow the law--- until something is decided BY LAW. They just found ripped up ballots and illegally thrown away ballots in PA today. Ballots are held for 2-3 years.
Avalon
10:47PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
Hello everyone - please remain calm as we are not planning on settling these outcomes just yet due to all the turbulence. These props can stay open for another week or so until the count is fully complete and a more certain picture is visible. As others have said, the recounts and legal challenges are moot if Biden is confirmed in AZ, NV, and GA so we expect to resolve this sooner than Jan 20th regardless. Note also that Trump conceding is irrelevant to whether he won/lost the election.
vegtru
10:00PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
If Trump was declared the winner, but recounts were requested, courts were challenged, the same would hold true. We need to wait. Trump has not lost yet-- some media just has prematurely called it. SWING STATES ARE STILL UPDATING --AND-- COURT ORDERS are STILL in progress. We are looking at a substantial delay while they work all of this out. I hope that the moderators/OP can agree that we shouldn't be making a decision on this while all of this is still in progress.
vegtru
9:57PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
Look- I know it sucks for many who are eager to take advantage of this market. Some people want to cash out right now and take advantage of the market. I know I would. But the fact remains----------Until the party concedes, or they elect someone OFFICIALLY, I don't think it's fair or reasonable that this bet should be decided on yet. If you pay out A, and not B, and then B wins-- that's a major problem for everyone who bet on Trump.
vegtru
9:46PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
BUSH vs GORE. THE MEDIA announced "PRESIDENT GORE" --- we all know how that went. The MEDIA does not elect a president. This bet MUST wait. You cannot reverse BTC transactions. This MUST wait.
https://www.history.com/news/2000-election-bush-gore-votes-supreme-court
vegtru
9:45PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
The COUNTS are NOT DONE.
The RECOUNTS are NOT DONE. The SUPREME COURT and MULTIPLE COURT CASES are STILL in play. Trump has NOT conceded. DEC 14TH is when the electors meet to elect a new president-- which can STILL BE DELAYED. ---- LOOK AT BUSH VS GORE. They ANNOUNCED "President Gore".... BUT IT NEVER HAPPENED. This is going to be the same. We MUST wait for everything to run its course properly.
posclegom
5:37PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
@barvl So whether he likes it or not, Trump is getting fired and getting walked out of the White House this coming January 20. It doesn't feel good to lose, I bet 2.5 BTCs on Trump, so I get how you feel at this time. But it's time for us to accept reality, and move on.
posclegom
5:35PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
@barvl To be honest, my bet (pardon the pun) is that Supreme Court won't be looking into this. Remember with Al Gore and Bush, it came down to Florida, on a razor-thin margin, and nobody called victory until when the Supreme Court made a decision. But this time it is different, Biden clearly won by a lot, other than Trump claiming fraud and threatening lawsuits, nobody else seems to think Trump won. And many Republicans are themselves distancing from Trump and rebuffing his claims.
barvI
5:19PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
I dont mind if lose to be honest. I dont even need the money. But there are some States that still counting votes, and decision logic talk about Supreme Court. If mayor media is in reality property of the left wing, obviously is going to be mayor media concensus. But this need to be done right.
f84jf85hg7g
5:17PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
Yay I lost!
posclegom
5:16PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
@barvl The writing is on the wall. It is Biden. Look I also lost my Trump bets in some of the other pools. But a bet is a bet and the result is the result, such is the nature of gambling.
barvI
5:14PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
This bet was resolved prematurely.
barvI
5:10PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
The outcome is incorrect. It just have to wait till Supreme Court as said by decision logic. Imagine paying as Biden wins, but Supreme Court says the opposite. There is no way to get the BTC. So the better thing is to wait till Supreme Court concesus (NOT MEDIA concensus). Not fair.
vegtru
10:04PM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
There is almost 1 million dollars in the pot. This needs to be done right. Not rushed by media. It's in your original description. "State voters will select presidential electors who in turn elect a president and vice president through the electoral college.". Sorry for the spam-- I just have been following the election closely and it's very far from settled in reality.
vegtru
10:01PM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
Again-- the news does not elect the president. The electors do. On December 14th.
That should be the target date for resolution. What would happen if the news says one thing, and then the court and the country says another? You cannot reverse BTC send/transactions. I implore you to be patient and wait.
vegtru
9:59PM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC
There are reports of rampant fraud throughout. This needs to go through the court and reach a FINAL decision from the COURT. The News has no electoral power. This might go well into December-- they've already announced RECOUNTS. Yet I heard a media outlet claimed victory already. Which is dishonest. The news doesn't elect the president- the electors do. You will need to wait. I am sure many people are concerned on both sides-- you need to be fair. This is a lot of money at risk.
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