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Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?
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Description
If Trump declassifies the JFK files in his first 100 days, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.
Decision Logic
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any previously classified files pertaining to the assassination of John Fitzgerald Kennedy by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count.
The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
488
CLOSING IN2025-04-29 15:30:00
11:42PM, Dec 9, 2024 UTC
3:30PM, Apr 29, 2025 UTC
4:00AM, Apr 30, 2025 UTC
12.435xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier
Total Volume: 0.1850
Discussion
neverbiden
2:29AM, Jan 24, 2025 UTC
*"IT remains open" and "BRAVED these waters" (wish we could edit here).
neverbiden
2:27AM, Jan 24, 2025 UTC
One thing strange about this bet is that is remains open the entire time. I mean really it should have closed at or around the time Trump took office. The bet is a certain "YES" at this point and yet last minute stragglers can now come in and water down the winnings of the few of us that braced these waters early on.
SpinningBall
11:07PM, Jan 23, 2025 UTC
"Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count." However, I think that there will be enough time for at least one document to be declassified in time, that's all that's necessary. This aligns with this real-money market with the same rules which hasn't resolved yet: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-declassifies-jfk-files-in-first-100-days?tid=1737673091591.
I still think yes will win though, congrats on the Bitcoin!
Porky
10:59PM, Jan 23, 2025 UTC
@neverbiden I'd say it qualifies as "yes" too, but just to quibble, the order only requires that the bureaucrats present a plan to him within 60 days, not that they actually release files within that timeframe.
Porky
10:56PM, Jan 23, 2025 UTC
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/declassification-of-records-concerning-the-assassinations-of-president-john-f-kenned/
neverbiden
9:08PM, Jan 23, 2025 UTC
But we all win on this one.
neverbiden
8:36PM, Jan 23, 2025 UTC
Trump just issued the order for the files to be released. Sounds like a YES wins the bet!
neverbiden
3:39PM, Jan 22, 2025 UTC
@praine Thanks and that makes sense and what I sort of figured out after I asked the dumb question.
praine
7:04PM, Jan 19, 2025 UTC
It's about volume. Let me give you an extreme but simple example. One person bets $1000 and 20 people bet $1 each. Well the person who bets $1000 is only going to get $1020 total because that's all the money that 'No' has contributed to the pot. Same story here, but your payout will increase if the 'No's continue to come in.
neverbiden
10:24PM, Jan 16, 2025 UTC
Hey I guess I don't understand how this bet logic works, but since there are only 3 of us that are betting "yes" as opposed to the 12 "no's", shouldn't us "yes" bets have payouts that are a higher multiple of our bets than the "no" crowd? As of now, my payout is only 1.271 times my bet, whereas the last "no" is getting 3.9699 times their bet, can this be right?
neverbiden
6:10PM, Jan 8, 2025 UTC
@SpinningBall Thanks and that would be cool. The d vote should pay pretty good odds because almost no one believes that or even knows that it's out there.
Thanks, I placed a bet on the war in Ukraine ending.
SpinningBall
6:37PM, Jan 7, 2025 UTC
@neverbiden That's a great idea! I might make a market for it later, and can cancel the bet if no files end up getting released. By the way, I created another market you might be interested in: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/trump-ends-ukraine-war-in-first-90-days-6088.
neverbiden
8:07PM, Jan 3, 2025 UTC
d) That JFK's assassination was faked as depicted in the film JFK X: Solving the Crime of the Century.
I have become convinced that this is what happened as that exploding and flapping head was just too squirrely to be real.
neverbiden
8:04PM, Jan 3, 2025 UTC
c) It was a foreign hit, whether an individual or a government and again including the cooperation or looking the other way by the entities mentioned in b.
neverbiden
8:03PM, Jan 3, 2025 UTC
b) It was a combination of the mafia, Texas oilmen, Cuban mercenaries and was green-lighted and or ignored by any or all of the following: US government including the CIA and Secret Service as well as the Dallas Police.
neverbiden
8:02PM, Jan 3, 2025 UTC
a) They (are a lie) and confirm the Warren Commission's findings--that LHO was the lone gunman.
neverbiden
8:02PM, Jan 3, 2025 UTC
Assuming the files are released, we should make a wager on what they reveal. The choices are pretty much as follows:
SpinningBall
9:21PM, Dec 20, 2024 UTC
No problem!
neverbiden
2:12PM, Dec 20, 2024 UTC
Okay thanks, just clarifying...
SpinningBall
5:15AM, Dec 20, 2024 UTC
Will be considered a NO. Only a release by the Trump administration will count.
neverbiden
2:11AM, Dec 20, 2024 UTC
What if the rats remove him from office before he gets to release them and they are subsequently not released by him, will that still be understood as a NO?
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