Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?

Category:

Description

If Trump declassifies the JFK files in his first 100 days, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.

Decision Logic

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any previously classified files pertaining to the assassination of John Fitzgerald Kennedy by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count.

The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

1044

CLOSING IN2025-03-18 04:00:00

11:42PM, Dec 9, 2024 UTC

4:00AM, Mar 18, 2025 UTC

3:16PM, Apr 4, 2025 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 9:08PM, Apr 5, 2025 UTC

Total Volume: 0.1911

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "Yes"

0.19112949 was split between 6 bettors.

YES

Volume:	0.1611
2.15732064
# of Bets:	6

Volume:	0.0300
0.3997356
# of Bets:	19

Related see more from Politics

Discussion

Avalon 6:23PM, Apr 7, 2025 UTC

@plann9 - you're right, thanks for the report. Our dev team is looking into it now. Will be resolved in the next 24-48hrs, please try again at that point!

plann9 2:29AM, Apr 7, 2025 UTC

This finally paid out after a long delay, but is anyone else having trouble withdrawing? The system says it sends a confirmation email but it never arrives. I can't change my email for the same reason.

neverbiden 6:30PM, Apr 4, 2025 UTC

Thanks!

Avalon 3:16PM, Apr 4, 2025 UTC

Host is asleep. Marked for early resolution. We'll resolve it in 24hrs if the host doesn't get to it. Thanks for the reports.

neverbiden 10:28PM, Mar 27, 2025 UTC

Yes what @plann9 said, hello???

plann9 7:33PM, Mar 24, 2025 UTC

Ahem.... the criteria has been met: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any previously classified files pertaining to the assassination of John Fitzgerald Kennedy by April 29, 2025" Let's wrap this one up.

neverbiden 1:59PM, Mar 24, 2025 UTC

Hello, this has resolved! https://www.archives.gov/research/jfk/release-2025

neverbiden 12:30PM, Mar 19, 2025 UTC

@Porky I had thought about that too...

Porky 6:32AM, Mar 19, 2025 UTC

@neverbiden I have to admit that after seeing your comment yesterday I was tempted to throw in a bet. :-) But you should be glad it remained open, because the only people who placed bets after your earlier comment put money down on "NO". Now that it really has resolved, it would just make work for the admins to place any more bets.

neverbiden 11:09PM, Mar 18, 2025 UTC

This bet has resolved! https://www.archives.gov/research/jfk/release-2025

neverbiden 12:10AM, Mar 18, 2025 UTC

Shouldn't the betting close on this at some point before it is resolved? It sounds like it will resolve tomorrow and it would suck if people come in and water down the bets of those that made the call long ago. https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1901736473012887567

freedom 6:16AM, Feb 19, 2025 UTC

Bureaucracy is slow so it should be a tight timeline haha

AndrewL 3:33PM, Jan 24, 2025 UTC

Nothing resolved yet, just set in motion. They need to be "declassified" within 100 days of office, i.e. released to the public. So, we shall continue to wait and see...and bet!! :)

neverbiden 2:29AM, Jan 24, 2025 UTC

*"IT remains open" and "BRAVED these waters" (wish we could edit here).

neverbiden 2:27AM, Jan 24, 2025 UTC

One thing strange about this bet is that is remains open the entire time. I mean really it should have closed at or around the time Trump took office. The bet is a certain "YES" at this point and yet last minute stragglers can now come in and water down the winnings of the few of us that braced these waters early on.

SpinningBall 11:07PM, Jan 23, 2025 UTC

"Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count." However, I think that there will be enough time for at least one document to be declassified in time, that's all that's necessary. This aligns with this real-money market with the same rules which hasn't resolved yet: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-declassifies-jfk-files-in-first-100-days?tid=1737673091591. I still think yes will win though, congrats on the Bitcoin!

Porky 10:59PM, Jan 23, 2025 UTC

@neverbiden I'd say it qualifies as "yes" too, but just to quibble, the order only requires that the bureaucrats present a plan to him within 60 days, not that they actually release files within that timeframe.

Porky 10:56PM, Jan 23, 2025 UTC

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/declassification-of-records-concerning-the-assassinations-of-president-john-f-kenned/

neverbiden 9:08PM, Jan 23, 2025 UTC

But we all win on this one.

neverbiden 8:36PM, Jan 23, 2025 UTC

Trump just issued the order for the files to be released. Sounds like a YES wins the bet!

neverbiden 3:39PM, Jan 22, 2025 UTC

@praine Thanks and that makes sense and what I sort of figured out after I asked the dumb question.

praine 7:04PM, Jan 19, 2025 UTC

It's about volume. Let me give you an extreme but simple example. One person bets $1000 and 20 people bet $1 each. Well the person who bets $1000 is only going to get $1020 total because that's all the money that 'No' has contributed to the pot. Same story here, but your payout will increase if the 'No's continue to come in.

neverbiden 10:24PM, Jan 16, 2025 UTC

Hey I guess I don't understand how this bet logic works, but since there are only 3 of us that are betting "yes" as opposed to the 12 "no's", shouldn't us "yes" bets have payouts that are a higher multiple of our bets than the "no" crowd? As of now, my payout is only 1.271 times my bet, whereas the last "no" is getting 3.9699 times their bet, can this be right?

neverbiden 6:10PM, Jan 8, 2025 UTC

@SpinningBall Thanks and that would be cool. The d vote should pay pretty good odds because almost no one believes that or even knows that it's out there. Thanks, I placed a bet on the war in Ukraine ending.

SpinningBall 6:37PM, Jan 7, 2025 UTC

@neverbiden That's a great idea! I might make a market for it later, and can cancel the bet if no files end up getting released. By the way, I created another market you might be interested in: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/trump-ends-ukraine-war-in-first-90-days-6088.

neverbiden 8:07PM, Jan 3, 2025 UTC

d) That JFK's assassination was faked as depicted in the film JFK X: Solving the Crime of the Century. I have become convinced that this is what happened as that exploding and flapping head was just too squirrely to be real.

neverbiden 8:04PM, Jan 3, 2025 UTC

c) It was a foreign hit, whether an individual or a government and again including the cooperation or looking the other way by the entities mentioned in b.

neverbiden 8:03PM, Jan 3, 2025 UTC

b) It was a combination of the mafia, Texas oilmen, Cuban mercenaries and was green-lighted and or ignored by any or all of the following: US government including the CIA and Secret Service as well as the Dallas Police.

neverbiden 8:02PM, Jan 3, 2025 UTC

a) They (are a lie) and confirm the Warren Commission's findings--that LHO was the lone gunman.

neverbiden 8:02PM, Jan 3, 2025 UTC

Assuming the files are released, we should make a wager on what they reveal. The choices are pretty much as follows:

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