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Trump Elected President in 2020 (Extended Betting)

Trump Elected President in 2020 (Extended Betting)
Category:
Politics
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Description

Will Donald Trump win the 2020 Presidential Election?

This market will allow betting through election day and in the days after as more results come in, and will only resolve after the winner is clear beyond any reasonable doubt.

Decision Logic

Will Donald Trump be the winner of the 2020 U.S. presidential general election? Yes means he will, no means he will not. No means he will not win reelection for any reason, such as death or resignation. I reserve the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Early resolution of this market is possible if the final result is known sooner than the betting deadline.

CLOSING IN2021-01-06 00:00:00

10:09AM, Nov 1, 2020 UTC

12:00AM, Jan 6, 2021 UTC

12:00AM, Jan 7, 2021 UTC

RESOLVED AT 8:42AM, Jan 7, 2021 UTC

Offered Volume: 88.96
Backed Volume: 40.64

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "No"

YES
Volume
27.27209413
# Bets
243
NO
Volume
13.3672907
# Bets
82

Placed Bets

Time User Option Bet Amount Odds Payout
11:59PM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC Carnitastaco No 0.088 1.14x 0.09731040
11:59PM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC Carnitastaco No 0.05 1.14x 0.05529000
11:59PM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC Carnitastaco No 0.1 1.14x 0.11058000
11:37PM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC Anonymous No 0.005 1.11x 0.00538350
11:03PM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC ALEXWINS Yes 0.07737985 4.10x 0.00000000
10:22PM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC Carnitastaco No 0.017 1.10x 0.01813900
9:21PM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.06 6.44x 0.00000000
7:36PM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC Anonymous No 0.015 1.10x 0.01600500
7:34PM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC Anonymous No 0.01151339 1.10x 0.01228479
7:29PM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC Anonymous No 0.007 1.10x 0.00746900
7:04PM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC Anonymous No 0.01 1.10x 0.01067000
7:04PM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC Anonymous No 0.005 1.10x 0.00533500
7:02PM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC Anonymous No 0.01 1.10x 0.01067000
4:48PM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.005 7.01x 0.00000000
4:37PM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.02 7.01x 0.00000000
6:44AM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC AForceNinja No 0.213 1.10x 0.22727100
4:12AM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC TeamHans Yes 0.17 7.19x 0.00000000
2:24AM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC RunIt2020 Yes 0.014 6.67x 0.00000000
2:00AM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC RunIt2020 Yes 0.04025 6.94x 0.00000000
1:41AM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC Carnitastaco No 0.1 1.10x 0.10670000
12:30AM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC elephant321 No 0.14180228 1.10x 0.15130303
8:16PM, Jan 4, 2021 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.08 6.66x 0.00000000
1:36PM, Jan 4, 2021 UTC Golhoneybadger Yes 0.149 6.66x 0.00000000
1:01PM, Jan 4, 2021 UTC Douglass30 Yes 0.10124 7.27x 0.00000000
7:40AM, Jan 4, 2021 UTC AForceNinja No 0.01367374 1.08x 0.01432461
1:54AM, Jan 4, 2021 UTC CopmalaForAG Yes 0.05979 8.01x 0.00000000
1:24AM, Jan 4, 2021 UTC RunIt2020 Yes 0.03 8.03x 0.00000000
8:01PM, Jan 3, 2021 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.146 9.01x 0.00000000
6:03PM, Jan 3, 2021 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.01245139 9.01x 0.00000000
6:03PM, Jan 3, 2021 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.03510858 10.10x 0.00000000
10:39AM, Jan 3, 2021 UTC Turbodog77 Yes 0.14070951 9.99x 0.00000000
12:42AM, Jan 3, 2021 UTC 3ttt Yes 0.008 9.00x 0.00000000
12:08AM, Jan 3, 2021 UTC freedom No 0.00586474 1.07x 0.00608701
8:04PM, Jan 2, 2021 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.009 8.00x 0.00000000
4:22PM, Jan 2, 2021 UTC Anonymous No 0.00612055 1.07x 0.00635252
3:24PM, Jan 2, 2021 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.009 7.04x 0.00000000
3:22PM, Jan 2, 2021 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.011 10.00x 0.00000000
11:23AM, Jan 2, 2021 UTC Anonymous No 0.03999808 1.07x 0.04151401
4:17AM, Jan 2, 2021 UTC AForceNinja No 0.2 1.07x 0.20758000
11:19PM, Jan 1, 2021 UTC Anonymous No 0.005 1.05x 0.00509250
2:03AM, Jan 1, 2021 UTC nuobeto No 0.179 1.08x 0.18752040
12:31AM, Jan 1, 2021 UTC nuobeto No 0.01 1.08x 0.01047600
9:48AM, Dec 31, 2020 UTC CapE No 0.12753722 1.10x 0.13608221
7:14AM, Dec 30, 2020 UTC BonanzaPilot Yes 0.00930852 6.81x 0.00000000
5:03AM, Dec 30, 2020 UTC EmilyQiu Yes 0.005 6.81x 0.00000000
10:48PM, Dec 29, 2020 UTC mastergerund No 0.02731099 1.08x 0.02861099
2:49AM, Dec 29, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.25 1.10x 0.26675000
12:23AM, Dec 29, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.2 6.81x 0.00000000
12:55PM, Dec 28, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.2542532 1.10x 0.27128816
6:54AM, Dec 28, 2020 UTC AForceNinja No 0.00539292 1.10x 0.00575425
3:22AM, Dec 28, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.01 1.10x 0.01067000
2:16PM, Dec 27, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.02 1.10x 0.02134000
5:37AM, Dec 27, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.01 1.10x 0.01067000
10:02AM, Dec 26, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.01580693 6.69x 0.00000000
1:40AM, Dec 26, 2020 UTC RunIt2020 Yes 0.02 6.69x 0.00000000
7:00PM, Dec 25, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.005 6.69x 0.00000000
3:49AM, Dec 25, 2020 UTC RunIt2020 Yes 0.0666 6.67x 0.00000000
2:03PM, Dec 23, 2020 UTC TeamHans Yes 0.17 7.61x 0.00000000
2:20AM, Dec 23, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.01 7.65x 0.00000000
2:44PM, Dec 22, 2020 UTC TeamHans Yes 0.17 7.65x 0.00000000
4:02AM, Dec 22, 2020 UTC TeamHans Yes 0.073 7.52x 0.00000000
4:02AM, Dec 22, 2020 UTC TeamHans Yes 0.017 7.70x 0.00000000
1:04PM, Dec 21, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.032 1.07x 0.03321280
2:58AM, Dec 20, 2020 UTC TeamHans Yes 0.17 6.69x 0.00000000
11:48PM, Dec 19, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.0199 7.00x 0.00000000
4:17PM, Dec 19, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.03 7.00x 0.00000000
1:37PM, Dec 19, 2020 UTC TeamHans Yes 0.17 7.01x 0.00000000
2:13AM, Dec 19, 2020 UTC oracleon No 0.005 1.09x 0.00528650
10:19AM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.35 1.09x 0.37005500
5:54AM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC aGan Yes 0.00862288 7.01x 0.00000000
11:34PM, Dec 17, 2020 UTC AForceNinja No 0.25 1.08x 0.26190000
9:23PM, Dec 17, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.083 7.01x 0.00000000
6:51PM, Dec 17, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.16400433 7.00x 0.00000000
3:47PM, Dec 17, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.084006 7.02x 0.00000000
2:11PM, Dec 17, 2020 UTC DaWei Yes 0.005 7.02x 0.00000000
11:50AM, Dec 17, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.3420888 1.05x 0.34841744
10:27AM, Dec 17, 2020 UTC kazanecki Yes 0.0199 7.02x 0.00000000
10:13PM, Dec 16, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.25720298 1.05x 0.26196124
8:27PM, Dec 16, 2020 UTC ITVAULT Yes 0.0858 7.01x 0.00000000
6:14PM, Dec 16, 2020 UTC ungabunga Yes 0.09 7.01x 0.00000000
6:03PM, Dec 16, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.00549 8.11x 0.00000000
8:55AM, Dec 16, 2020 UTC aGan Yes 0.005 9.96x 0.00000000
8:48AM, Dec 16, 2020 UTC tiffegut Yes 0.008 10.00x 0.00000000
8:37AM, Dec 16, 2020 UTC ungabunga Yes 0.08 10.00x 0.00000000
8:34AM, Dec 16, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.03 10.00x 0.00000000
2:40PM, Dec 15, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.016 10.00x 0.00000000
10:54AM, Dec 15, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.53974632 1.09x 0.57067378
7:24AM, Dec 15, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 1 1.10x 1.06700000
10:26AM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC ITVAULT Yes 0.1293 4.56x 0.00000000
11:56AM, Dec 13, 2020 UTC kazanecki Yes 0.02 6.00x 0.00000000
2:52AM, Dec 13, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.005561 7.50x 0.00000000
11:52PM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC xdm Yes 0.005 7.50x 0.00000000
3:01PM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC tiffegut Yes 0.005 7.52x 0.00000000
2:20PM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC aGan Yes 0.005 8.00x 0.00000000
1:48PM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.01 8.18x 0.00000000
9:10AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.034 10.00x 0.00000000
8:17AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.5 1.05x 0.50925000
12:41AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 1.505 1.07x 1.56203950
10:18PM, Dec 11, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.02466062 4.99x 0.00000000
8:05PM, Dec 11, 2020 UTC AForceNinja No 0.625 1.08x 0.65475000
9:55AM, Dec 11, 2020 UTC ungabunga Yes 0.00669499 4.92x 0.00000000
6:36AM, Dec 11, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.368 1.09x 0.38908640
9:42PM, Dec 10, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.05 5.51x 0.00000000
6:08PM, Dec 10, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.3 1.08x 0.31428000
10:56AM, Dec 10, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.04 1.12x 0.04345600
7:50AM, Dec 10, 2020 UTC aGan Yes 0.01 4.12x 0.00000000
6:36AM, Dec 10, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.02244253 4.12x 0.00000000
5:52AM, Dec 10, 2020 UTC sinmantky No 0.025 1.12x 0.02716000
5:00AM, Dec 10, 2020 UTC imunclebob Yes 0.1 4.10x 0.00000000
11:02PM, Dec 9, 2020 UTC ungabunga Yes 0.12 4.06x 0.00000000
7:47PM, Dec 9, 2020 UTC EmilyQiu Yes 0.00644996 4.03x 0.00000000
7:00PM, Dec 9, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.5 4.04x 0.00000000
4:31PM, Dec 9, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.007 3.62x 0.00000000
4:30PM, Dec 9, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.419 4.90x 0.00000000
4:15PM, Dec 9, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.272651 5.01x 0.00000000
2:43PM, Dec 9, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.222 5.14x 0.00000000
3:30AM, Dec 9, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.01957677 5.08x 0.00000000
1:31AM, Dec 9, 2020 UTC Grosbig Yes 0.01053685 5.07x 0.00000000
1:24AM, Dec 9, 2020 UTC tiffegut Yes 0.005 5.07x 0.00000000
10:42PM, Dec 8, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.43993 6.04x 0.00000000
5:25PM, Dec 8, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.01 6.13x 0.00000000
5:25PM, Dec 8, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.07 6.20x 0.00000000
2:46AM, Dec 8, 2020 UTC hippoturd Yes 0.07563991 6.20x 0.00000000
12:33AM, Dec 8, 2020 UTC markm Yes 0.02587217 6.20x 0.00000000
12:15AM, Dec 8, 2020 UTC hippoturd Yes 0.0108 6.20x 0.00000000
11:39PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.25 6.21x 0.00000000
11:08PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.02 6.65x 0.00000000
10:14PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC Galadriel Yes 0.02447647 6.65x 0.00000000
9:09PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.00865756 6.67x 0.00000000
9:05PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.129 6.90x 0.00000000
8:16PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.2 7.23x 0.00000000
8:06PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.04 7.50x 0.00000000
4:23PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC markm Yes 0.01011314 7.51x 0.00000000
2:00PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC tiffegut Yes 0.006 7.12x 0.00000000
1:47PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.01 8.00x 0.00000000
1:38PM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.00644623 8.00x 0.00000000
9:45AM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.324 1.06x 0.33313680
8:46AM, Dec 7, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.3 1.06x 0.30846000
2:46PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC Phunky Yes 0.06572519 6.46x 0.00000000
10:22AM, Dec 5, 2020 UTC kazanecki Yes 0.1972 6.46x 0.00000000
8:44PM, Dec 4, 2020 UTC ungabunga Yes 0.6 6.65x 0.00000000
5:59PM, Dec 4, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.11 6.66x 0.00000000
12:55PM, Dec 4, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.06196657 6.66x 0.00000000
12:50PM, Dec 4, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.035 6.66x 0.00000000
9:14AM, Dec 4, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.020171 6.66x 0.00000000
12:25AM, Dec 4, 2020 UTC Auraletic Yes 0.01 6.58x 0.00000000
10:46PM, Dec 3, 2020 UTC nightthing12 Yes 0.01322834 6.60x 0.00000000
7:15PM, Dec 3, 2020 UTC ryohaz Yes 0.00593065 6.58x 0.00000000
4:39PM, Dec 3, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.025 1.07x 0.02594750
1:52AM, Dec 3, 2020 UTC AForceNinja No 0.165 1.06x 0.16965300
12:09AM, Dec 3, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.125 6.51x 0.00000000
6:41AM, Dec 2, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.199 1.07x 0.20654210
3:56AM, Dec 2, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.005 1.07x 0.00518950
3:45AM, Dec 2, 2020 UTC Treebeard Yes 0.05 6.12x 0.00000000
2:33AM, Dec 2, 2020 UTC Galadriel Yes 0.02454287 6.12x 0.00000000
9:03AM, Dec 1, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.053 1.06x 0.05449460
8:17AM, Dec 1, 2020 UTC ungabunga Yes 0.5 6.09x 0.00000000
3:14AM, Dec 1, 2020 UTC Javan Yes 0.0237 7.51x 0.00000000
2:44AM, Dec 1, 2020 UTC arturo_2259 Yes 0.00979 7.51x 0.00000000
2:17AM, Dec 1, 2020 UTC Douglass30 Yes 0.0527 7.51x 0.00000000
1:09AM, Dec 1, 2020 UTC noqcks Yes 0.02813456 5.57x 0.00000000
12:17AM, Dec 1, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.065 1.10x 0.06935500
10:13PM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC Douglass30 Yes 0.047 7.00x 0.00000000
7:11PM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.0621 7.01x 0.00000000
6:04PM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.01103489 7.01x 0.00000000
5:58PM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC ungabunga Yes 0.3033 7.01x 0.00000000
5:44PM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.02167547 7.01x 0.00000000
5:24PM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.01 7.01x 0.00000000
3:27PM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.005 1.10x 0.00533500
2:33PM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.01 7.01x 0.00000000
2:31PM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.02 7.01x 0.00000000
1:12PM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.04 7.01x 0.00000000
1:04PM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.014 7.01x 0.00000000
12:40PM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.01064793 7.01x 0.00000000
11:03AM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC ungabunga Yes 0.5 7.01x 0.00000000
8:48AM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.01453488 7.50x 0.00000000
8:05AM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC Turbodog77 Yes 0.09004983 7.02x 0.00000000
7:26AM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC isami Yes 0.03902072 7.15x 0.00000000
6:28AM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC ungabunga Yes 0.5 8.43x 0.00000000
6:01AM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC arturo_2259 Yes 0.00789 9.09x 0.00000000
5:55AM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC EmilyQiu Yes 0.005 9.09x 0.00000000
5:50AM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC Javan Yes 0.037 9.18x 0.00000000
5:44AM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC ITVAULT Yes 0.1395 11.01x 0.00000000
7:20PM, Nov 29, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.01 10.01x 0.00000000
3:26PM, Nov 29, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.009 10.01x 0.00000000
5:03AM, Nov 28, 2020 UTC EmilyQiu Yes 0.005 9.00x 0.00000000
2:01AM, Nov 28, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.0058 8.10x 0.00000000
1:59AM, Nov 28, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.005 8.10x 0.00000000
1:19AM, Nov 28, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.0058 8.10x 0.00000000
11:04PM, Nov 27, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.00507082 8.10x 0.00000000
10:53PM, Nov 27, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.0312441 8.10x 0.00000000
6:40PM, Nov 27, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.01 8.00x 0.00000000
6:06PM, Nov 27, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.009462 8.00x 0.00000000
3:29PM, Nov 27, 2020 UTC EmilyQiu Yes 0.01 8.00x 0.00000000
10:22AM, Nov 27, 2020 UTC ungabunga Yes 0.2 7.82x 0.00000000
3:19AM, Nov 27, 2020 UTC EmilyQiu Yes 0.0116 7.51x 0.00000000
8:02PM, Nov 26, 2020 UTC Mattyboy Yes 0.6 7.07x 0.00000000
7:55PM, Nov 26, 2020 UTC Mattyboy Yes 0.12 7.90x 0.00000000
7:35PM, Nov 26, 2020 UTC Mattyboy Yes 0.12 7.91x 0.00000000
6:21PM, Nov 26, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.05270342 7.91x 0.00000000
4:13PM, Nov 26, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.005 1.05x 0.00509250
12:17PM, Nov 26, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.499 1.06x 0.51307180
12:12PM, Nov 26, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.1 1.06x 0.10282000
11:18AM, Nov 26, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.037 7.86x 0.00000000
9:45AM, Nov 26, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.1 1.05x 0.10185000
5:20AM, Nov 26, 2020 UTC Turbodog77 Yes 0.07782052 8.23x 0.00000000
4:46AM, Nov 26, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.01 9.50x 0.00000000
4:42AM, Nov 26, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.005 9.50x 0.00000000
4:40AM, Nov 26, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.015 9.50x 0.00000000
3:24AM, Nov 26, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.006 9.25x 0.00000000
3:14AM, Nov 26, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.053 8.50x 0.00000000
3:12AM, Nov 26, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.03 8.50x 0.00000000
9:02PM, Nov 25, 2020 UTC EmilyQiu Yes 0.01674224 7.00x 0.00000000
10:31AM, Nov 25, 2020 UTC ungabunga Yes 0.2 4.48x 0.00000000
10:30AM, Nov 25, 2020 UTC ungabunga Yes 0.2 7.71x 0.00000000
9:48AM, Nov 25, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.0505 8.23x 0.00000000
6:52AM, Nov 25, 2020 UTC ungabunga Yes 0.1 12.43x 0.00000000
5:35AM, Nov 25, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.014686 12.02x 0.00000000
4:40AM, Nov 25, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.02 12.02x 0.00000000
11:20PM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC tecladoreal Yes 0.0132 11.00x 0.00000000
9:59PM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC Okyle250 Yes 0.00690062 10.00x 0.00000000
10:55AM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.04 6.05x 0.00000000
8:54AM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.02142857 6.06x 0.00000000
5:57PM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.1 1.04x 0.10088000
5:47PM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC Timm Yes 0.00591927 4.20x 0.00000000
2:31PM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.08292982 5.32x 0.00000000
12:29PM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.01 5.30x 0.00000000
7:11AM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.01 1.04x 0.01008800
6:57AM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC leili Yes 0.00992412 5.60x 0.00000000
5:18AM, Nov 23, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.05 1.04x 0.05044000
5:23PM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.02 5.00x 0.00000000
5:02PM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.005 5.00x 0.00000000
5:43PM, Nov 21, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.01 3.03x 0.00000000
3:40AM, Nov 21, 2020 UTC Auraletic Yes 0.035 3.02x 0.00000000
4:43PM, Nov 20, 2020 UTC bcide No 0.02 1.05x 0.02037000
10:27AM, Nov 20, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.112 1.10x 0.11950400
10:07AM, Nov 20, 2020 UTC nsob No 0.01 1.10x 0.01067000
9:49AM, Nov 20, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.04945 2.69x 0.00000000
8:35AM, Nov 20, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.36 1.12x 0.39110400
5:52PM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC ungabunga Yes 0.1 2.65x 0.00000000
10:07AM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.04 1.10x 0.04268000
5:58AM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC lerp Yes 0.005 4.40x 0.00000000
11:15PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC lerp Yes 0.0643 4.50x 0.00000000
6:24PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC ungabunga Yes 0.2 4.50x 0.00000000
6:23PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC ungabunga Yes 0.2 4.81x 0.00000000
2:21PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.08505 4.51x 0.00000000
7:22AM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.15 1.10x 0.16005000
8:11PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.0056 4.51x 0.00000000
12:01PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.0233827 4.51x 0.00000000
12:11PM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.12 1.10x 0.12804000
8:57AM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC jbet Yes 0.07 4.01x 0.00000000
8:52PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.0637 1.10x 0.06796790
8:29PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.0309576 1.10x 0.03303176
4:33PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC tadarlis No 0.01840478 1.10x 0.01963790
11:43PM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.03 3.53x 0.00000000
8:44AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.03794861 3.54x 0.00000000
7:08AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC dddavidp Yes 0.0050371 3.85x 0.00000000
11:10PM, Nov 13, 2020 UTC OnlineDegen Yes 0.011 4.00x 0.00000000
5:54AM, Nov 13, 2020 UTC AForceNinja No 0.0679 1.10x 0.07244930
6:39PM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 1.22056853 1.10x 1.30234662
6:07PM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC dogiv No 0.1 1.10x 0.10670000
2:33PM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC justbet No 0.26680842 1.10x 0.28468458
6:43AM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC Fundraiser No 0.087 1.10x 0.09282900
12:49AM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC ezuser1 Yes 0.005 3.00x 0.00000000
2:45PM, Nov 11, 2020 UTC ungabunga Yes 0.33 3.11x 0.00000000
11:08AM, Nov 11, 2020 UTC kazanecki Yes 0.13 3.09x 0.00000000
10:38AM, Nov 11, 2020 UTC kazanecki Yes 0.2 3.83x 0.00000000
10:28AM, Nov 11, 2020 UTC kazanecki Yes 0.33 5.79x 0.00000000
4:56AM, Nov 11, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.1 3.09x 0.00000000
3:04AM, Nov 11, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.5 1.09x 0.52865000
12:55AM, Nov 11, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.00552791 3.04x 0.00000000
12:16AM, Nov 11, 2020 UTC AForceNinja No 0.0519753 1.09x 0.05495348
8:00PM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC ungabunga Yes 0.15 3.03x 0.00000000
3:09PM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC bronco Yes 0.069 3.01x 0.00000000
2:29PM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC leen93 No 0.037 1.09x 0.03912010
2:02PM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC TeamHans Yes 0.009 3.01x 0.00000000
12:45PM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC qmpsr No 0.01097086 1.09x 0.01159949
9:19AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC kazanecki Yes 0.2 3.05x 0.00000000
6:20AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.02780697 3.07x 0.00000000
4:18AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC TeamHans Yes 0.0065 3.00x 0.00000000
1:37AM, Nov 10, 2020 UTC noqcks Yes 0.006 4.00x 0.00000000
9:54PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC kazanecki Yes 0.018 4.28x 0.00000000
4:22PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.0202672 5.74x 0.00000000
4:30PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.006 3.02x 0.00000000
7:15AM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.01 3.06x 0.00000000
12:06AM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.027 3.04x 0.00000000
12:06AM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.146 3.50x 0.00000000
12:05AM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.024 4.00x 0.00000000
8:22PM, Nov 6, 2020 UTC Nylan Yes 0.34939565 3.51x 0.00000000
6:25PM, Nov 5, 2020 UTC ungabunga Yes 0.26 2.59x 0.00000000
3:59PM, Nov 5, 2020 UTC johnconnors11 Yes 0.1 2.59x 0.00000000
2:40PM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC fritz Yes 0.015 1.75x 0.00000000
12:12PM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC leen93 Yes 0.013 1.75x 0.00000000
3:49AM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC tiffegut Yes 0.05 1.10x 0.00000000
3:40AM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC harrycarry No 0.0135 2.00x 0.02619000
2:45AM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC Erakor09 Yes 0.01766145 1.46x 0.00000000
2:41AM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC Erakor09 Yes 0.00552462 1.46x 0.00000000
2:23AM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC blairchap Yes 0.01 1.46x 0.00000000
1:20AM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC ColdNights Yes 0.01256081 1.44x 0.00000000
12:08AM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC Okyle250 Yes 0.0286052 1.82x 0.00000000
11:54PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.23266232 1.82x 0.00000000
10:32PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC qweasd170 Yes 0.00574737 1.77x 0.00000000
10:19PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC jokesrequiem Yes 0.3 1.77x 0.00000000
8:59PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC wulfgvngg Yes 0.01676 1.77x 0.00000000
7:46PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC gtcsr22xx Yes 0.024 1.77x 0.00000000
1:21PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC Loopylocksta Yes 4.323 1.09x 0.00000000
1:16PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC Loopylocksta Yes 0.243 1.35x 0.00000000
1:14PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC Loopylocksta Yes 0.116 1.50x 0.00000000
1:07PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC Loopylocksta Yes 1.38 1.75x 0.00000000
10:48AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC Loopylocksta Yes 1.28 1.72x 0.00000000
8:09AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC Loopylocksta Yes 1.14 1.90x 0.00000000
7:30AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC sliu7809 Yes 0.3 1.90x 0.00000000
7:20AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.05883758 1.90x 0.00000000
6:55AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.1 1.91x 0.00000000
6:54AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.1 1.91x 0.00000000
6:31AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC Loopylocksta Yes 0.772 2.01x 0.00000000
5:03AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC dcclxxvii Yes 0.00509001 2.01x 0.00000000
2:41AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.169 2.00x 0.00000000
1:59AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.005 2.20x 0.00000000
12:02AM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.062 2.19x 0.00000000
11:59PM, Nov 2, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.104 2.20x 0.00000000
11:52PM, Nov 2, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.4 2.20x 0.00000000
11:46PM, Nov 2, 2020 UTC Anonymous Yes 0.07262704 2.20x 0.00000000
10:52PM, Nov 2, 2020 UTC LSfreeloader Yes 0.01 2.30x 0.00000000
6:25PM, Nov 2, 2020 UTC Anonymous No 0.005 1.33x 0.00645050
See more

Discussion

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ryohaz 6:23PM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
This is the best and fairest bet on the net. Your logic leaves resolution open till we finally know the 100% results of the election. No need to rush the resolution, im sure most of us came to this bet rather than other bets because we knew this would be muddy. The fact that we can keep betting through the whole process allows for a nice pot to keep growing and no one knows to which side it will go.
anon2134 6:03PM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
@AHamilton I don't understand how your 10:1 conversion proposal works. Say I want to buy 3BTC on January 7th at 10:1 - under your proposal, who finances the 30BTC at the other end of my bet?
anon2134 5:53PM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
@AHamilton Check out these 3 links for 3 bets on FTX: https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPSTAY/USD , https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPFEB and https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPGO/USD - these bets have not settled and will not settle until February 1st and are currently accepting bets and will continue to do so until the first 1st of February. Daily volume is in the order of 100,000$USD. What you are referring to is their bet called TRUMP which was settled early and these bets were created due to complaints.
Andyzzle 5:42PM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
You can't just change your mind afterwards and change the logic with it. The only reason I put down money on this bet and not on others is because of that reassurance on how it'd be called in the event of that happening. That's why I asked you before I placed the bets and you replied with a clear Yes. Martial Law resolves as yes. @Avalon surely that's gotta be against the rules, is it not?
Andyzzle 5:36PM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
@AHamilton hold your horses now. You explicitly said in the comments that it'd res if Trump seizes power (i quote): "once voter fraud is proven, and the SCOTUS rules Donald Trump President, this market will resolve as Yes. If the Deep State intervenes, and Trump is forced to declare Martial Law and seize power, this market will also resolve as YES."
AHamilton 5:08PM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
@anon2134, sure, but FTX already paid out the election bet. If you are correct, then you stand to make even more money under my proposal to give you 10:1 odds if Trump makes his move after january 7th!!!
anon2134 4:40PM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
@AHamilton Trump is incredibly likely to make his move between the 6th and the 20th, after officials have committed irreversibly to illegal votes - that's the whole point of Trump's plan! The concern you raised in regards to "holding this bet forever" would occur only under a narrow range of scenarios; for instance, if Trump takes power and then it goes to a long trial. The bet can still be extended to the 20th to account for most scenarios without risking being held forever.
anon2134 4:17PM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
@AHamilton FTX.com still has an election bet going to February 1st 2021, settling on whether Trump is or isn't the president on said date.
AHamilton 4:02PM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
As of now, every other betting market that I know of has settled the general election. Betfair, MyBookie, GT Bets, Bovada, FTX, PredictIt, Polymarkets, Intertops, and BetNow. Each one has settled this. BetMoose is the only market I know of that has not settled.
anon2134 4:00PM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
betmoose has a golden opportunity to position itself as one of the few (and possibly only) provider of a fair bet regarding this election. Many platforms have settled early based on rumours or media decision, and their reputations will surely take a massive hit for this, if they haven't already. Those who lost due to early settlement (on those other platforms) are very angry. This election is unique and Trump has plenty of cards to play between the 6th and the 20th.
AHamilton 3:55PM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
Of course, Trump can seize power by other means, but that would not imply he won the 2020 general election, it would imply he has seized power by force. While it could be that at some point in the future new information could come to light, that's not a reason to hold up this bet forever. So, what I'm inclined to do instead is, once this bet is resolved, give any Yes holders 10:1 odds on whether Trump will still be president on January 22nd, for as many bitcoin as you'd like to bet.
AHamilton 3:50PM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
Hey guys, obviously, someone is going to be disappointed one way or another here. Certainly, Biden supporters believe the outcome of the election has already been decided beyond any reasonable doubt. According to the official state election results, and electoral vote count, Biden has already won. Now, on January 6th, as I understand, although it's a long-shot, there's some chance that Trump could get Congress to overturn the results. If that doesn't happen, I don't see why wait.
ungabunga 3:41PM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
Yes. I think, prolonging it to 20th of January is the right thing to do, since thats the date the election will be decided “beyond any reasonable soubt”
udohtu5182 3:16PM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
Yeah, it would be probably correct to close this bet and let it simmer until the 7th (or the 20th, it doesn't really matter at all) as the outcome has already been clear beyond any reasonable doubt for several days, and this market is just stealing money from people who are at some stage of grief or possibly delusion.
Andyzzle 2:14PM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
@AHamilton @Avalon can you guys step in and clarify some things about the decision logic? I don't think it's right to leave betting open while there's apparently no consensus on how and when the bet will be settled. Especially not if there are ambiguous comments made by the parties that get to make that decision.
Andyzzle 2:09PM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
@cryptoman You don't have to get into conspiracy nonsense to see how the outcome could still be undecided by January 6th. You have 7 or 8 states that cast dueling electors. If Pence as the President of the Senate decides to dismiss them you're looking at more courts and more lawsuits extending past that date. And an election that is by no means decided "beyond reasonable doubt".
cryptoman 1:58PM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
Pence just got the vaccine. I imagine that on January 6, when he counts the votes, someone will say that his mind has been remotely controlled by Soros and Bill Gates through a microchip and that we will then have to wait for his autopsy to figure it out. But what if he is cremated? I hope at some point we will stop to broaden the range of these fantasies.
anon2134 1:17PM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
@AHamilton Any thoughts on extending the deadline to January 20th, 2021? Trump still has legal options (insurrection act, martial law, etc) if January 6th goes against him.
anon2134 1:03PM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
@jblndsl The decision logic clearly state the following: " I reserve the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. " So if Trump still has cards, the market should not settle until all cards have been played even if that extends beyond the 6th.
cryptoman 9:16AM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
@praine @jblndsl : Thanks for clarifying. I got lost in the myriad of comments, my bad.
jblndsl 8:26AM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
Guys, what's so hard about reading the comments of moderators and support? They have state MULTIPLE TIMES that the bet will be resolved with the certification of electoral votes by Congress on Jan 6th. If Trump wants to pull something off to remain president, he'll have to do it on that day. So no, Trump barricading himself in the White House on Jan 20th does not resolve as Yes. And this bet will be settled after Congress convenes. Read Avalon's comments.
praine 4:02AM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
Someone needs to put up 8 BTC for that to happen at those odds. If that's the kind of volume a Trump bettor wants now, I can assure you that your order will be filled.
hippoturd 3:24AM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
@leen93 - Be my guest. If you do, I'll cut off not only my arms and legs, but my wacker, as well.
anon2134 11:55PM, Dec 17, 2020 UTC
Here is what I think might happen: Trump will do nothing until the last minute. By going nothing the dissatisfaction will grow and his supporters will demand more and more action from him. He will act when confidence is at the lowest because his support will be at the highest. Therefore, can we get reassurance that this bet will not be set early even if the confidence is low (because thats the plan)? Even if congress vote against him, Trump will still have options. Pinging @AHamilton?
Andyzzle 11:42PM, Dec 17, 2020 UTC
The bet is about the winner of the 2020 general election. It has the most volume on the site by far so i'd say it's obvious that it's about who takes it home and sits in the white house for the next four years. The bet resolution has been moved back in the past once already after the election couldn't be called early so it was never tied to Jan 6th and the reading of the electoral college votes to begin with. @AHamilton it's essentially a bet on who sits in the WH for the next four years, no?
leen93 11:26PM, Dec 17, 2020 UTC
I'm ready to bet 40 btc at 1.20 odds for no
praine 10:45PM, Dec 17, 2020 UTC
EDIT: a new election or recount that was induced by martial law could* resolve as 'Yes' if it produces that result.
praine 10:40PM, Dec 17, 2020 UTC
Yes, it is a bet on ELECTION outcome. A military coup (i.e. Trump just stays in the white house and has military force behind him) wouldn't resolve as 'Yes', but a new election or recount that was induced by martial law would resolve as 'Yes'. Since in that situation the previous results would be invalidated so we would have to see what the new results are. That's how I understand it, at least. Obviously a fringe scenario we are talking about, but this doesn't violate the decision logic.
cryptoman 9:14PM, Dec 17, 2020 UTC
Hi @Avalon, can you please clarify what @Andyzzle states? In case Trump declares the martial law I guess it would be fair to refund this bet. In the decision logic it wasn't contemplated. I don't believe it's fair to change the decision logic arbitrarily. Are we betting on the election outcome or on the possibility of a military coup? Why a military coup should resolve as YES? This is a nonsense, what if the manual recount confirms Biden? I won't bet a sat till this will be clarified.
Andyzzle 8:54PM, Dec 17, 2020 UTC
@hippoturd Good point. I also don't think Trump would just do a military coup and declare himself president. It would most likely be a scenario in which military courts investigate the election and order hand recounts with signature verification. However, according to a comment by @AHamilton earlier, the market would resolve as yes if Trump declares martial law. If he orders martial law to recount the ballots or to repeat the election then i think it'd be fair to resolve the bet on that outcome

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