Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Trump has promised to end the Ukraine war on day one - this market will be more lenient on him. Can he do it in the first 90 days?

Note that per the rules, in the unlikely event that Trump dies, is unable to take office, etc. before April 20th, this market can still go yes if the war ends before then. (e.g. Vance becoming President and ending it through negotiations with both sides.)

The market can also resolve before Jan 20, since Trump certainly speaks with national leaders before the inauguration. In short, as long as the Decision Logic is fulfilled before April 20 Eastern Time, this market will go yes, regardless of if Trump is president, dead, etc.

If an armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine before April 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to yes.
To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries.
The specific date that such an agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this market. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced within this market's specified timeframe.

• politics,
• trump,
• War

4.230xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier