Trump impeached before inauguration?

Category:

Description

Donald Trump has been recorded calling Georgia’s Secretary of State and asking him to "to find 11,780 votes" to overturn Georgia's election.

"There’s nothing wrong with saying that, you know, um, that you’ve recalculated.”

Some are calling this a case of election fraud and asking for Trump to be impeached again. Will it happen with such a short time before inauguration?

Decision Logic

Bet resolves YES if the full U.S. House of Representatives shall, by simple majority vote, approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump. Neither trial nor conviction by the U.S. Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to cause this market to resolve as YES.
—
If Trump is not impeached by the Outcome date, the bet resolves NO.

656

CLOSING IN2021-01-14 01:00:00

1:16AM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC

1:00AM, Jan 14, 2021 UTC

7:01PM, Jan 14, 2021 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 7:26PM, Jan 14, 2021 UTC

Total Volume: 0.0793

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "Yes"

0.07933619 was split between 18 bettors.

YES

Volume:	0.0672
0.08617133
# of Bets:	18

Volume:	0.0121
0.01609
# of Bets:	10

Related see more from Politics

Discussion

d_d 10:37PM, Jan 14, 2021 UTC

@dhorks The half of 'Yes' volume was placed after Jan 11. Not sure what the main reasoning behind 'No' bets was, as the democrats clearly have the necessary votes, but whatever.

dhorks 9:18PM, Jan 14, 2021 UTC

@d_d retroactively changing the cutoff to before the vote doesn't make sense. The house could have voted against impeachment and the 25th Amendment was a possibility up to the day before. It really doesn't make sense considering about a quarter of the "No" volume was placed in the last 24 hours.

freedom 1:01AM, Jan 14, 2021 UTC

Settled Trump impeached

d_d 12:26AM, Jan 14, 2021 UTC

I was referring to some more advanced leech protection) like refunding the YES bets that were placed 2 days prior to impeachment. It is easy to propose such adjustments in hindsight, overall it was nicely crafted, indeed.

f84jf85hg7g 12:05AM, Jan 14, 2021 UTC

@d_d It wasn't a certainty until it happened. Could have been pre-empted by 25th amendment, or by Trump resigning, or Trump being assassinated, etc. etc.

f84jf85hg7g 12:02AM, Jan 14, 2021 UTC

This *was* supposed to be leech protection. There's still a whole week until the inauguration.

d_d 10:58PM, Jan 13, 2021 UTC

https://twitter.com/davidcicilline/status/1348675695078207488

d_d 10:54PM, Jan 13, 2021 UTC

@f84jf85hg7g Some leech protection would've been great here. Since Jan 11 this impeachment was basically a certainty and a done deal. Is it possible to push back a resolution date ? @Avalon

dhorks 9:43PM, Jan 13, 2021 UTC

yeah great timing lol

f84jf85hg7g 3:06PM, Jan 13, 2021 UTC

My end date worked out well :D

clody21 2:22PM, Jan 13, 2021 UTC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnyfYgu5iqg

d_d 2:45AM, Jan 12, 2021 UTC

BREAKING|Jan 11, 2021,11:34am EST House Democrats Introduce Article Of Impeachment Against Trump https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/01/11/house-democrats-impeach-trump-plan-articles-of-impeachment/?sh=6a8a8ccb59be

f84jf85hg7g 8:11PM, Jan 7, 2021 UTC

@dhorks Correct, 25th amendment is NO, impeachment is YES (whether he is removed or not)

dhorks 6:49PM, Jan 7, 2021 UTC

I assume removal via 25th amendment would resolute in "NO"?

f84jf85hg7g 10:00PM, Jan 6, 2021 UTC

https://twitter.com/sethmoulton/status/1346925416863457283 "Trump is directly responsible for this insurrection and violence. He needs to be removed from office immediately. It is the Constitutional responsibility of Vice President Pence and the cabinet to exercise the power granted them by the 25th amendment. Or Congress must immediately impeach and remove the President for the safety of our nation." - MA congressman

f84jf85hg7g 9:59PM, Jan 6, 2021 UTC

https://twitter.com/AyannaPressley/status/1346933141307584515 "Donald J. Trump should immediately be impeached by the House of Representatives & removed from office by the United States Senate as soon as Congress reconvenes." - MA congresswoman

f84jf85hg7g 1:18AM, Jan 5, 2021 UTC

Is this a good way to do the deadline? 1 week prior to avoid last-minute leeches, and then outcome after inauguration?

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