Trump Wins One of PA, NV, AZ, MI, WI, or GA?

Category:

Description

Will Donald Trump end up winning, by December 6th, one of the following states:
Pennsylvania
Nevada
Arizona
Michigan
Wisconsin
Georgia

If the President can flip the results and be leading in any of these states in the 2020 Presidential election.

Added: Leech Protected Mechanism. If a state flips to Yes, at that point this market will be suspended so that people can't jump on Yes after the fact. Conversely, if Trump were to concede, we will stop this market to protect No holders. We will refund all bets placed after a state flipping or Trump conceding to protect Yes/No holders, respectively.

Decision Logic

This bet will resolve as "Yes" if Donald Trump can end up winning any of the above states by the deadline date, according to the official state sources.

2662

CLOSING IN2020-12-03 04:40:00

7:46AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC

4:40AM, Dec 3, 2020 UTC

9:45AM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC

RESOLVED AT 10:14AM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC

Total Volume: 1.963

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "No"

1.96328749 was split between 38 bettors.

YES

Volume:	0.1770
0.4666991
# of Bets:	18

Volume:	1.786
4.10017931
# of Bets:	38

Related see more from Politics

Discussion

AHamilton 1:28PM, Nov 20, 2020 UTC

OK, I've added in some language to protect those who have already bet, and those who are contemplating betting but worried about leeching. Let me know if you have any suggestions.

AHamilton 12:50PM, Nov 20, 2020 UTC

@Guedez. Good suggestion. Yes, if a state flips, I suppose there is a chance that, if a state flips, we'll want to stop bets right there. I'm going to try and add in a "Leech Protection" to protect yes voters in the case of a flip.

Guedez 1:23PM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC

-interests

Guedez 1:22PM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC

I'd suggest some sort of leech protection like this: "The bet ends and is only resolved Dec 6, but If a state is 'leading trump' and ends up being the reason the bet resolves YES, then all YES bets 3 days before said state 'started leading trump' gets refunded". That way the NO can wait until the very last minute to 'overturn the overturn' and the YES gets leech protected from people flooding the bet after a state 'switches'. No bets get refunded if the outcome is NO, to also protect the NO int-

Guedez 1:20PM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC

@CrazyBrazy As good news it is to me, I see nothing about it anywhere? Was it recounts? Court? Blocking certification is not trump winning the state, even if such a thing could end up winning him the presidency. Also, would be pretty shameful to resolve this bet so early when every other election related bet is waiting the official final results.

CrazyBrazy 10:32AM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC

Trump winning Michigan.. time to resolve before it reaches the mass media

d_d 8:26AM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC

it is a special condition that might be introduced by a host to discourage late-time bettors. Check how it is defined here, for instance: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-btc-hit-100-000-before-dec-2018-leech-protected-3742

AHamilton 4:14AM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC

What do you mean "leech protected" exactly? If he shows a lead in Georgia on Dec. 6th, or any of other above-mentioned states, he wins.

Guedez 7:17PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC

When/how will this be leech protected? Georgia is already showing different results on the recount (which has not yet finished, and so far are not big enough to change the result).

AHamilton 3:26AM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC

@SCIF. People have already been betting on both sides, so I don't think it would be fair to change the terms, but I'll offer a separate bet in a couple of days with a different deadline once I get my funds replenished.

SCIF 2:55AM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC

If you offer the same terms but extend the dateline to Inaguration Day Jan 20th. Perhaps it will be fairer because due to all the legal challenges results can change very quickly. Depending on the terms of thr bet i will be willing to match that amount

AHamilton 7:58AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC

If anyone matches my .3 bitcoin with a yes, I resolve to match with an additional .3 coins.

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