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U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020

U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020
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Politics
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Description

What will be the result of the 2020 United States presidential election?

Decision Logic

The candidate that wins 270+ Electoral College votes at the 2020 presidential election will be settled as winner. Any subsequent events will have no effect on the settlement of this market.
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If no candidate wins 270+ Electoral College votes, we wait and the person chosen as President will be settled as winner.
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If Trump or Biden are replaced as candidates for any reason before the election this proposition will be settled as a Republicans vs Democrats proposition.

CLOSING IN2020-11-03 12:00:00

8:19PM, Oct 4, 2020 UTC

12:00PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC

12:00PM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC

RESOLVED AT 7:54PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC

Total Volume: 21.75

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "Biden"

21.74740381 was split between 46 bettors.
Trump
Volume:14.00
19.00255335
# of Bets:93
Biden
Volume:7.751
14.28733562
# of Bets:46

Discussion

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Thundy 1:33PM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC
145.5 million social security numbers 17.6 million driver's licenses These are publicly available and leaked SSN's from Equifax's hack in 2018. Changing SSN's is not something that's easy, 99% of these are still accurate. With these SSN's + nobody checking signatures, I could vote illegally in PA if I wanted. If I can do it, someone else is doing it, someone with more invested in this election.
Thundy 1:28PM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC
"If you don't have one the documents listed under option 1, you can include the last 4 digits of your social security number on your absentee or mail-in ballot form." So, mismatched signatures won't flag it. What's protecting someone from fraudulently sending in mail in ballots and it being counted as them? Someone getting the last 4 digits of their SSN#. This is not hard, in fact, there's people on the deepweb (White House Market) that are selling social security numbers for $10 a pop.
Thundy 1:22PM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/pennsylvania-court-ballot-signatures-431794
Thundy 1:07PM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC
A random gangster sent in 8000 ballots over the course of 5 months with the same signature, using completely fake names and fake SSN#'s and many of them were accepted before they caught on. In most of these swing states, mismatched signatures won't be enough to reject the ballot or require some sort of extra verification. How will they invalidate it?
Thundy 1:04PM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC
@TeamColtra Logan, the elections official, said officials noticed voter applications coming in that "had a consistent pattern" of a repeated post-office box, incremental Social Security numbers and similar handwriting.
TeamColtra 3:55AM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC
@Thundy it's not that it doesn't happen it's that you are allowed to do it and they are prepared for it and when they get the in person ballot they invalidate the mail ballot.
Thundy 12:45AM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC
It's not impersonation fraud that's the issue, it's not double voting, it's mail in ballots simply. Can you sincerely not imagine 75,000 illegal mail in ballots across 366 counties being casted, where there's no real verification that it's a legitimate vote? There's people that are being arrested for sending in hundreds and thousands of these ballots.
Thundy 12:43AM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC
8000 vote attempts in a county of 86,000 ... an acceptance rate of over 50% too for them WHILE checking the signatures. Now then, imagine states where mismatched signatures are accepted + two democrats validate the votes and you start to see the problem. There's no individual that can contest the result, there is no person that will say "oh, this signature looks off, let's throw it out" and it is allowed, invariably.
Thundy 12:33AM, Nov 19, 2020 UTC
Heritage's voter fraud map is not very accurate, I can find multiple instances of MAJOR voter fraud that they don't list on their website. They do admit it's not an accurate representation, however. Only 0.00000013 percent of ballots cast were fraudulent, you say, @bit_queen? Explain this: https://abc7.com/voter-fraud-hawthorne-mayor-carlos-antonio-de-bourbon-montenegro-mark-anthony-gonsalves/8046531/
Pheenixm 11:26PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
@bit_queen Benford's Law is applicable to elections, as it has been used to show fraud in Iran, Bolivia, Venezuela, etc. for decades. I have taken time to educate myself, maybe you should ask why the Wikipedia page for it was only edited AFTER the election? Seems like you're only listening to sources that confirm your narrative – how sad! If you aren't nervous, and you don't have money tied up in this bet, why are you even here in the comments?
Thundy 9:41PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
You can add in more variables to lower the statistical probability of this occurring. You can firstly look at the total active voting population in Durham (244,299) and use that number instead of 321,488. The NC voting record site lets you look at "inactive/removed" voters, click that option. There is only one person with all of these same variables, invariably; they're active voters. If you want to go a step further; validate their voter registration address with their record on prison file.
Thundy 9:36PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
But when you keep increasing the sample size of this happening. One vote, ten votes, one hundred votes, etc it is statistically impossible for them to share all of the same variables. Try to disprove this mathematically and you'll soon find you can't. This is objective proof. There is no hearsay, there is no opinions, this is a statistical reality.
Thundy 9:33PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
Now then, look as the easiest example I can possibly think of objective and easy to prove voter fraud, look at Durham county's prison record and then look at voting records. Put in the same first, middle, last name. Put in the same birth year, month and day. What will you see? Easy proof of illegal votes. Repeat this as many times as you feel like until you feel confident, after all, maybe there is a freak chance that one of those 12 people had the exact first/middle/last name after all, right?
Thundy 9:27PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
So, there's around 12 people being born daily in Durham, if we're being generous. Now, out of those 12 people, how many of those do you think will also share the same first/middle/last name? Now you should be thoroughly convinced the statistical chance of someone sharing all these variables is virtually non-existent.
Thundy 9:17PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
What's the chance in a county of 321,488 that there's someone with an identical first/middle/last name that was born on the same year, same month, same day? Let's do the math, shall we? In Durham county, there's around 4150 being born average each year. Let's round it up to 4500 though, to be fair, maybe one year the citizens there really went at it.
Thundy 9:12PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
Look at prison records. Grab the person's first, middle, last name. Grab their date of birth, the day/month/year they were born. Then input that into the voter record and you'll see countless prisoners that are "active" voting for the first time, aged 30+ on average, via mail in ballot.
Thundy 9:11PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
The second criteria is that they are incapable of checking if they've voted in the election. Prisoners and dead folks can't check until they're out and a lot of these prisoners have sentences that will spill over for other elections. I said it before but you can objectively prove this is happening by comparing them yourself.
Thundy 9:10PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
Although, I have noticed, a lot of the direct fraudulent votes have two sorts of criteria. The first criteria is that the voter hasn't voted in an election prior. The most common way to find these people are by comparing voting records to prison records and obituaries, because there's no previous voter signature on election file: it's accepted as the voter's signature.
Thundy 9:08PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
It's also very suspicious that mismatched signatures are not being counted. For the foreigners (plenty of Canadians posting) these mail in ballots are accepted blindly, even if the signature is completely different with the signature on file. If a vote was sent in your country under your name with a significantly different signature on file and it was accepted, how would you feel about it?
Thundy 9:06PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
It's honestly very disturbing reading people claim mail in ballot fraud isn't occurring when judges and politicians on both sides of the political spectrum are getting elected in office and later being convicted and imprisoned for abusing the mail in ballot system.
Thundy 9:05PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
In several counties, boxes of mail in ballots were "lost" that leaned Trump. Trump's margin needed to win now went from 78,000 to 75,000. These aren't even directly fraudulent votes being found, just huge "missing boxes" of votes that hold 7-8% of all voters in certain counties.
Thundy 8:44PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
It directly contradicts your point where you tried to blanket generalize only 17 fraud votes and use that statistic for the entire population. With 76 cases being caught in 2016, this directly disproves what you say and you admit it does. So now you're backtracking on your previous statement. White collar crime is usually committed by smart individuals, not idiots. The people who were caught were idiots.
Javan 6:52PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
for further comedic effect https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_8ZCLInsuU
donuthole 11:25PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
For comedic effect https://mobile.twitter.com/BeholdIsrael/status/1328707796632793089
bitqueen 11:09PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
I don't know why you keep linking that Thundy as it's not helping your case... The Heritage Foundation database shows just 1298 instances of voter fraud since 1982...
Thundy 6:46PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
By the way, most of her sources have invalid sources attached or don't show the methodology. They simply authoritatively claim things without a shred of evidence. THIS is evidence, you can read each court case yourself and see it's happening on a bigger scale then what you're being told. You can look at fraudulent votes cast in various counties. This is not hearsay, this isn't a conspiracy, this is something you can independently prove right now but you won't. Ask yourself, why won't you?
Thundy 6:38PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/docs/pacei-voterfraudcases.pdf
Thundy 6:37PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
You either believe court documents of people being found guilty and sent to prison for mail in ballot fraud by the legal courts or you believe a politician. This isn't something that people on Facebook are saying, lol. These are public records of courts finding various citizens and groups guilty of mail in ballot fraud in 2012 and 2016 that you refuse to look at it because it goes against your narrative. To assume it didn't happen in 2020 would be purposefully ignorant.
Thundy 6:35PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
@jeb_bush There are no facts to be seen in her statements, they're particularly obtuse and politically bent. For example, her statement about only 14 instances of fraud across 82 million votes being found by the secretary of state, when you actually read it, it doesn't say that at all. It says "duplicate" votes, not fraudulent votes. There is proof of more then 14 instances of fraud.
Pnmuk 6:19PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
Ricki I hope you've got strong sedatives for when the actual result comes cause it's going to be a burner

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