Propositions
Hall of Fame
FAQAll Bets
U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020
U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020
kolotoure77294
Share
Description
What will be the result of the 2020 United States presidential election?
Decision Logic
The candidate that wins 270+ Electoral College votes at the 2020 presidential election will be settled as winner. Any subsequent events will have no effect on the settlement of this market.
__
If no candidate wins 270+ Electoral College votes, we wait and the person chosen as President will be settled as winner.
__
If Trump or Biden are replaced as candidates for any reason before the election this proposition will be settled as a Republicans vs Democrats proposition.
CLOSING IN2020-11-03 12:00:00
8:19PM, Oct 4, 2020 UTC
12:00PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC
12:00PM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC
RESOLVED AT 7:54PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
Total Volume: 21.75
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "Biden"
21.74740381 was split between 46 bettors.
Trump
| Volume: | 14.00 |
| # of Bets: | 93 |
Biden
| Volume: | 7.751 |
| # of Bets: | 46 |
Discussion
bitqueen
10:41PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A lot of Trumpists are going to lose 100's, 1000's and even 10000's of dollars on betting markets as they double and triple down their savings on Trump "winning" because the mere concept of their cult leader losing at anything is simply impossible in their minds. They will never concede, and will ignore all facts because to do otherwise is acknowledging they were duped, which is too painful to do after devoting years of their life to a cult and forming their entire identity around it.
bitqueen
10:41PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Every day Trump or a Trump support continue to baselessy declare that a new instance of 100000 votes are fraudulent. By the next day these claims are always thoroughly debunked, and trumps lawyers admit defeat in whatever case they are desperately fighting for that day. But this news never reaches or are instantly ignored Trumpists who live in a conservative media bubble. They are addicts, and a new outrageous claim of election fraud with zero evidence is their next fix.
bitqueen
10:40PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
I know Trumpists will ignore all of this. They will declare "fake news!" and believe the words of their cult leader over any mountain of evidence. They are told every day by Trump, "Q", Alex Jones, OANN, Newsmax and until recently Fox News (who committed the ultimate sin of acknowledging reality and declaring Trump a loser) that their fantasy is correct, and the rest of the world is working together in a grand conspiracy against them.
bitqueen
10:40PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
In Wisconsin, a task force charged 20 individuals with election crimes. The majority charged were
individuals with prior criminal convictions, who are often caught up by confusing laws regarding
restoration of their voting rights.
https://badgerherald.com/news/2011/02/01/doj-task-force-charg/#.U71R741dUq9
bitqueen
10:40PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
In Iowa, a multi-year investigation into fraud led to just 27 prosecutions out of 1.6 million ballots
cast. In 2014 the state issued a report on the investigation citing only six prosecutions.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/may/8/2-year-voter-fraud-investigation-report-released/
http://publications.iowa.gov/16874/1/DCI%20Voter%20Fraud%20Report%205-8-14.pdf
bitqueen
10:39PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Even this amended list contained many false positives, such as a WWII veteran born in Brooklyn.
In the end, only 85 non-citizen registrants were identified and only one was convicted of fraud,
out of a total of 12 million registered voters.
http://www.politifact.com/florida/article/2013/sep/12/noncitizen-voter-purge-makes-comeback-florida/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/11/josef-sever-voted-illegally-non-citizen_n_2113807.html
bitqueen
10:39PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
In 2012, Florida Governor Rick Scott initiated an effort to remove non-citizen registrants from
the state’s rolls. The state’s list of 182,000 alleged non-citizen registrants quickly dwindled to 198.
http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2016/nov/18/blog-posting/no-3-million-undocumented-immigrants-did-not-vote-/
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article2087729.html
bitqueen
10:39PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
In Florida, a criminal investigation into nine individuals who allegedly committed absentee ballot
fraud led to all criminal charges being dismissed against all voters. http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/the-bogeyman-at-the-ballot-box-voter-fraud-in-florida-is-largely-a-myth/2276141
bitqueen
10:37PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
In Maine, an investigation into 200 college students revealed no evidence of fraud. Shortly
thereafter, an Elections Commission appointed by a Republican secretary of state found “there is
little or no history in Maine of voter impersonation or identification fraud.”
http://www.brennancenter.org/blog/ballot-box-bullies
http://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/ElectionsCommissionReport.pdf
bitqueen
10:37PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
An investigation in Colorado, in which the Secretary of State alleged 100 cases of voter fraud,
yielded one conviction. http://www.aurorasentinel.com/news/gessler-voter-sting-nets-1-conviction-despite-accusation-widespread-fraud/
bitqueen
10:37PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
There was no evidence that any of these
incidents involved in-person impersonation fraud. Over a five year period, they found “no
concerted effort to tilt the election.” http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/12/washington/12fraud.html
bitqueen
10:36PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A specialized United States Department of Justice unit formed with the goal of finding instances
of federal election fraud examined the 2002 and 2004 federal elections, and were able to prove
that 0.00000013 percent of ballots cast were fraudulent.
https://www.aclupa.org/files/1913/7960/9095/Minnite.pdf
https://www.brennancenter.org/publication/justice-departments-voter-fraud-scandal-lessons
bitqueen
10:36PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Texas lawmakers purported to pass its strict photo ID law to protect against voter fraud. Yet the
chief law enforcement official in the state responsible for such prosecutions knew of only one
conviction and one guilty plea that involved in-person voter fraud in all Texas elections from
2002 through 2014. https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legal-work/Findings.pdf
bitqueen
10:35PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
The secretary has also testified about his
review of 84 million votes cast in 22 states, which yielded 14 instances of fraud referred for
prosecution, which amounts to a 0.00000017 percent fraud rate. https://www.thenation.com/article/voter-fraud-witch-hunt-kansas/
bitqueen
10:34PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, a longtime proponent of voter suppression efforts,
argued before state lawmakers that his office needed special power to prosecute voter fraud,
because he knew of 100 such cases in his state. After being granted these powers, he has brought
six such cases, of which only four have been successful. http://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article77519827.html
bitqueen
10:34PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
...with Judge Posner noting that strict photo ID laws are “now widely
regarded as a means of voter suppression rather than of fraud prevention.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/stevens-says-supreme-court-decision-on-voter-id-was-correct-but-maybe-not-right/2016/05/15/9683c51c-193f-11e6-9e16-2e5a123aac62_story.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/16/us/politics/judge-in-landmark-case-disavows-support-for-voter-id.html
bitqueen
10:34PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Two of the jurists who weighed in on that case at
the time — Republican-appointed former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens and
conservative appellate court Judge Richard Posner — have since announced they regret their
votes in favor of the law...
bitqueen
10:33PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Even the Supreme Court, in its opinion in Crawford upholding Indiana’s voter ID law, noted that
the record in the case “contains no evidence of any [in-person voter impersonation] fraud actually
occurring in Indiana at any time in its history.” https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/07-21.ZO.html
bitqueen
10:33PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A federal trial court in Wisconsin reviewing that state’s strict photo ID law found “that
impersonation fraud — the type of fraud that voter ID is designed to prevent — is extremely
rare” and “a truly isolated phenomenon that has not posed a significant threat to the integrity of
Wisconsin’s elections.” https://www.aclu.org/legal-document/frank-v-walker-preliminary-injunction-motion-granted?redirect=legal-document/frank-v-walker-motion-granted
bitqueen
10:32PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
In its opinion striking down North Carolina’s omnibus restrictive election law —which included a
voter ID requirement — as purposefully racially discriminatory, the Fourth Circuit noted that the
state “failed to identify even a single individual who has ever been charged with committing inperson voter fraud in North Carolina.” http://electionlawblog.org/wp-content/uploads/nc-4th.pdf
bitqueen
10:32PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
The Fifth Circuit, in an opinion finding that Texas’s strict photo ID law is racially discriminatory,
noted that there were “only two convictions for in-person voter impersonation fraud out of 20
million votes cast in the decade” before Texas passed its law. https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legal-work/2016.07.20_En%20Banc%20Opinion.pdf
bitqueen
10:31PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Additional research on noncitizen voting can be found here:
http://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/analysis-noncitizen-voting-vanishingly-rare.
Additional resources can be found here: https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/analysis-andreports.
bitqueen
10:31PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2009 analysis examined 12 states and found that fraud by voters was “very rare,” and also
concluded that many of the cases that garnered media attention were ultimately unsubstantiated
upon further review. file://bcnyfs01.brennancenterny.org/brennan/Public/Democracy/Voting%20Rights%20&%20Elections/Election%202016/Election%202016%20Controversies/A%202009%20analysis%20examined%2012%20states%20and%20found%20that%20fraud%20by%20voters%20was%20
bitqueen
10:30PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2010 book cataloguing reported incidents of voter fraud concluded that nearly all allegations
turned out to be clerical errors or mistakes, not fraud. http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/study-finds-no-evidence-widespread-voter-fraud-n637776
bitqueen
10:30PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2011 study by the Republican National Lawyers Association found that, between 2000 and
2010, 21 states had 1 or 0 convictions for voter fraud or other kinds of voting irregularities. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/debbie-hines/voter-fraud-statistics_b_1139085.html
bitqueen
10:30PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2012 assessment of Georgia’s 2006 election found “no evidence that election fraud was
committed under the auspices of deceased registrants.” http://digitalcommons.kennesaw.edu/facpubs/2165/
bitqueen
10:29PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2012 study exhaustively pulled records from every state for all alleged election fraud, and found
the overall fraud rate to be “infinitesimal” and impersonation fraud by voters at the polls to be
the rarest fraud of all: only 10 cases alleged in 12 years. The same study found only 56 alleged
cases of non-citizen voting, in 12 years. http://votingrights.news21.com/article/election-fraud/
bitqueen
10:29PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
While writing a 2012 book, a researcher went back 30 years to try to find an example of voter
impersonation fraud determining the outcome of an election, but was unable to find even one. http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/10/29/the-voter-fraud-myth
bitqueen
10:29PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2014 study by the non-partisan Government Accountability Office, which reflected a literature
review of the existing research on voter fraud, noted that the studies consistently found “few
instances of in-person voter fraud.” http://www.gao.gov/assets/670/665966.pdf
bitqueen
10:28PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2014 study that examined impersonation fraud both at the polls and by mail ballot found zero
instances in the jurisdictions studied. http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1532673X13498411
Anonymous Bet - care to Login or Sign Up? 
Placing bet on ""
Send winnings to:
*For use with standalone wallets (bitcoin-qt, electrum).
Shared wallets (exchanges, multifactor) will not work!
Proceed
Send your bet to this address:
1EbocQk64Kh3bXVEebPcsCtcJoB2mRwNhk
* Minimum bet is 0.0001 BTC
Your bet will be automatically entered when picked up - no confirmations needed!
Done
