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U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020
U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020
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Description
What will be the result of the 2020 United States presidential election?
Decision Logic
The candidate that wins 270+ Electoral College votes at the 2020 presidential election will be settled as winner. Any subsequent events will have no effect on the settlement of this market.
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If no candidate wins 270+ Electoral College votes, we wait and the person chosen as President will be settled as winner.
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If Trump or Biden are replaced as candidates for any reason before the election this proposition will be settled as a Republicans vs Democrats proposition.
CLOSING IN2020-11-03 12:00:00
8:19PM, Oct 4, 2020 UTC
12:00PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC
12:00PM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC
RESOLVED AT 7:54PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
Total Volume: 21.75
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "Biden"
21.74740381 was split between 46 bettors.
Trump
| Volume: | 14.00 |
| # of Bets: | 93 |
Biden
| Volume: | 7.751 |
| # of Bets: | 46 |
Discussion
bitqueen
10:28PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2014 nationwide study found “no evidence of widespread impersonation fraud” in the 2012
election. http://online.liebertpub.com/doi/abs/10.1089/elj.2013.0231
bitqueen
10:28PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2014 paper concluded that “the likely percent of non-citizen voters in recent US elections is 0.” http://projects.iq.harvard.edu/cces/news/perils-cherry-picking-low-frequency-events-large-sample-surveys
bitqueen
10:27PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2016 working paper concluded that the upper limit on double voting in the 2012 election was
0.02%. The paper noted that the incident rate was likely much lower, given audits conducted by
the researchers showed that “many, if not all, of these apparent double votes could be a result of
measurement error.” https://www.dropbox.com/s/fokd83nn4x6wuw9/OnePersonOneVote.pdf?dl=0
bitqueen
10:26PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Research into the 2016 election found no evidence of widespread voter fraud. http://www.dartmouth.edu/~voterfraud/
bitqueen
10:26PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A review of the 2016 election found four documented cases of voter fraud. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/12/01/0-000002-percent-of-all-the-ballots-cast-in-the-2016-election-were-fraudulent/?utm_term=.ff52dd16d6e0
bitqueen
10:25PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
The follow-up study, which looked for fraud specifically in states
where politicians have argued that fraud is a pernicious problem, found zero successful
prosecutions for impersonation fraud in five states from 2012-2016.
http://votingrights.news21.com/article/election-fraud/
https://votingwars.news21.com/voter-fraud-is-not-a-persistent-problem/
bitqueen
10:25PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Two studies done at Arizona State University, one in 2012 and another in 2016, found similarly
negligible rates of impersonation fraud. The project found 10 cases of voter impersonation fraud
nationwide from 2000-2012.
bitqueen
10:25PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A comprehensive 2014 study published in The Washington Post found 31 credible instances of
impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast. Even this tiny
number is likely inflated, as the study’s author counted not just prosecutions or convictions, but
any and all credible claims. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/08/06/a-comprehensive-investigation-of-voter-impersonation-finds-31-credible-incidents-out-of-one-billion-ballots-cast/
bitqueen
10:24PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2017 analysis published in The Washington Post concluded that there is no evidence to support
Trump’s claim that Massachusetts residents were bused into New Hampshire to vote. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/02/28/we-cant-find-any-evidence-of-voting-fraud-in-new-hampshire/?utm_term=.9ab385c64fa0
bitqueen
10:24PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A study published by a Columbia University political scientist tracked incidence rates for voter
fraud for two years, and found that the rare fraud that was reported generally could be traced to
“false claims by the loser of a close race, mischief and administrative or voter error.” http://www.projectvote.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/03/Politics_of_Voter_Fraud_Final.pdf
bitqueen
10:23PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
The Brennan Center’s seminal report on this issue, The Truth About Voter Fraud, found that most
reported incidents of voter fraud are actually traceable to other sources, such as clerical errors or
bad data matching practices.The report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for
voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. https://www.brennancenter.org/publication/truth-about-voter-fraud
Pnmuk
9:42PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Yes thundy has used superior logic
fritz
8:29PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Thundy said it all.
fritz
8:27PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Legal votes count, illegal votes don't count.
It's not the courts who judge wether a vote is legal or not - it is the law that defines that before the vote took place.
The argument is that the votes (the legal ones) have not been counted correctly.
Heck, I could win if I decide how to count the votes ;-)
Thundy
7:29PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Oh, as a final note as I've ranted plenty today, at both DefCon and Hackathon other cybersecurity experts and even children as young as 16 have found ways to break into our voting systems and tip a significant portion of votes from one candidate to another. In places where independent observers are prevented from observing the election process, it would be absurdly easy in a multitude of ways to alter the results.
Thundy
7:26PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
P.S - I'm a cybersecurity professional and hold significant amount of reputation on HackerOne's forums for finding exploits in major sites, including Amazon. If we're going to use the appeal to authority card, you should look at what authority you're using. Have a good day.
Thundy
7:24PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
More or less guarantees that there's at least a 0.05% rate of error this election. To say there's no proof of fraud is ignoring objective reality that you can independently prove and you'd do that because it either suits your narrative or because you've bet real money and hope this election will be solved before the facts come to light.
Thundy
7:22PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
For the election to be overturned, only 0.05% of the votes need to be considered fraudulent. With major state actors being involved most likely (China, Russia, Iran being three) and various sketchy glitches, this is likely. If you look at the 2012 and 2016 election, we also saw hundreds of citizens arrested for voter fraud, the amount needed to overturn the election and the ease of abusing mail in ballot...
https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/docs/pacei-voterfraudcases.pdf
Thundy
6:48PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
78,000 fraudulent votes being removed from the system would allow Trump to win. I've personally found nearly 400 fraudulent votes as a private citizen in North Carolina, which is a traditionally red state. The states that had the most "glitches" with their machines are democrat held and with particularly annoying measures to prevent someone from web scraping and comparing public records with voting records for just one. This is certainly not a called election.
Thundy
6:45PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Arizona has a margin of 10k votes, GA 15k votes, Wisconsin 20k votes, NV 33k votes, PA 65k votes. These margins are too low and with CONFIRMED voter fraud that you can easily check yourself instead of believing CNN, Reddit or another political pundit you can see this isn't an easily decided election whatsoever.
Thundy
6:42PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
So, is there proof of undeniable fraud? Yes, personally I was able to find 246 fraudulent votes of prisoners and 151 votes of the dead voting in NC for dems, I obviously didn't manage to get all of them as I'm a private citizen without access to PII but still, this rate is most likely comparatively higher in swing states where there's no independent observer to witness the election.
Thundy
6:40PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
>There is no fraud
But there is and you can easily fact check this yourself by heading over to the counties where there is massive suspected fraud. Example in point: Durham county, look at active prisoners and obituaries this year and compare it to voting records, there is fraud.
>Lawsuits failed
No, the important ones haven't. 628,000 votes in PA were unlawfully cast without observers to verify signatures and will be recounted after much legal difficulties, in Michigan, over 300,000.
Javan
6:16PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
The issue is that at this point, all ec votes are speculative. Notice how the ec counts varry from channel to channel. If you do not understand this, you have no bussiness here.. there is a reason we have descison logic.
Pnmuk
11:43PM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
2016 bet logic didn't specify 270+ electoral college votes otherwise it would have followed same sequence
Pnmuk
11:39PM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
Decision logic clearly says 270+ electoral college votes, president of the senate will declare who won the most electoral college votes on January 6 right now there's nothing only CNN hype
donuthole
10:16PM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
@kolotoure77294 BetCloud has said this and SportsBet https://helpcentre.sportsbet.com.au/hc/en-us/articles/360052142091 others have just decided to wait so they're out of legal suit territory that the outcome is certain.
kolotoure77294
9:59PM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
Where have the betting companies said that? This is the ceo of Smarkets exchange https://mobile.twitter.com/jasontrost/status/1326869168336101378
donuthole
8:11PM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
Most betting companies have stated that although they have resolved for Biden now, they will be also paying out for Trump if he is declared winner after disputes are resolved which I doubt would bother anyone here, apart from BetMoose of course who would be footing the bill. For reference, if you had specified the bet is e.g. resolved by first predicted winner announced by Fox News that is a different matter entirely, mods should be more thorough with betting logic in the future.
donuthole
8:05PM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
@kolotoure77294 that's broken logic, there are no "electoral votes" at the "election", there are presumed electoral votes after counting has concluded with actual electoral votes cast on December the 14th and counted January 6th. The deadline for resolving election disputes is December 8th https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/the-electoral-college.aspx
jeb_bush
7:26PM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
@kolotoure77294: preach!
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