Propositions
Hall of Fame
FAQAll Bets
U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020
U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020
Share
Description
What will be the result of the 2020 United States presidential election?
Decision Logic
The candidate that wins 270+ Electoral College votes at the 2020 presidential election will be settled as winner. Any subsequent events will have no effect on the settlement of this market.
__
If no candidate wins 270+ Electoral College votes, we wait and the person chosen as President will be settled as winner.
__
If Trump or Biden are replaced as candidates for any reason before the election this proposition will be settled as a Republicans vs Democrats proposition.
CLOSING IN2020-11-03 12:00:00
8:19PM, Oct 4, 2020 UTC
12:00PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC
12:00PM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC
RESOLVED AT 7:54PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
Total Volume: 21.75
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "Biden"
21.74740381 was split between 46 bettors.
Trump
| Volume: | 14.00 |
| # of Bets: | 93 |
Biden
| Volume: | 7.751 |
| # of Bets: | 46 |
Discussion
kolotoure77294
6:51PM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
@Javan it's says wins EC votes *at the election*. You win the EC votes by winning enough states to take you over 270 EC votes. The election is the bet. All other events are irrelevant, as stated. Once states certify that's it. Game over.
kolotoure77294
6:48PM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
2016 Trump wins 306 to 323 and loses the pop vote by 3 million. Betmoose pays out next day. No Hillary bettors complain.
2020 Biden wins by 306 to 323 and Wins the popular vote by 5+ million... No pay out for weeks, Sour grapes from sore losers. Literally zero percent chance Trump wins from here. Many places paid already, e.g., Matchbook, Smarkets, Bet365 to name 3
Javan
6:42PM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
@kolotoure77294 the decision logic states very clearly "winner of 270+ electoral votes." jan 6th we will know who won the votes.. court cases are irrelevant.
kolotoure77294
6:41PM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
This is about who wins the election. Not about how the electoral college electors vote. And by the way, the supreme court made faithless electors illegal in july this year. You got a shred of evidence for your fraud claims? No you have nothing, of course, because there is none!
Pnmuk
6:01PM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
The fact that fraud has been uncovered shouldn't make biden fans want quick settlement
Pnmuk
5:54PM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
If electoral count is more for trump we both know you don't have capacity to compensate
Pnmuk
5:53PM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
Electoral count happens on January 6 not media projections
CastorBTC
5:28PM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
@kolotoure77294 Why even wait for Georgia recount. It doesn't push biden bellow 270. Just resolve this bet already. Just because some flatearthers probably try to win in court, that the earth is flat, doesn't mean everybody has to wait for the lawsuit to resolve, to know it's actually round..
Pnmuk
12:09PM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
It's bidens Democrats who stopped counting votes on election night in swing states bruv, trump fans are justly waiting for the real result which is going to be announced on January 6, are those supreme court loses because unless it is then the matter is still in the courts, Avalon says January 6 which is correct electoral count date
kolotoure77294
11:22AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
Trump has now lost 20 lawsuits and won just 1. The one he won stops Pennsylvania counting ballots which arrived after election day. Biden has a lead of 46,000 votes in Pennsylvania (even without these) and the number of votes arriving after election day is less than 1000. Trump has zero chance of winning this election at this point. There is no fraud, BBC investigated a "10,000" dead voters list posted to twitter and found everyone they checked was alive, except 1 who died week b4 election!
kolotoure77294
11:15AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
Georgia recount will be finished on Wednesday. This is coming to an end soon and we'll be able to settle. As I said previously this is bet on who wins the election, as voted by the people. Subsequent events are irrelevant, once we have all the results from the states we can settle.
TeamColtra
8:48AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
@fritz I guess the question is: Do you *ACTUALLY* believe that evidence? Or are you just spouting BS. There are plenty of bets on this site that will allow you to make a killing if this evidence is true. See my favourites and click the "Will Courts Overturn The Election" one. The current payout for a ~$400 bet is currently ~$1600. Lots of cash up for grabs for people who believe in Trump.
jeb_bush
7:13AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
@fritz those videos are really sad man. Some guy with a webcam calling himself a Dr and trying to sell supliments pretending PA is going to flip via baseless claims with no evidence behind them. SMH. Trump is 0-12 in court cases to date, go and read official court documents and don't get your news from random internet snake oil salesmen.
jeb_bush
7:08AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
@Pnmuk yes I am aware of the date of the joint session of congress. It is however a formality, is my point. The states officially instruct their electors on December 14th and no group of electors had ever deviate significantly from that instruction ever.
newunit16
5:56AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
To those wondering why the end date for the bet was Nov 4th, people were hoping/assuming Trump would win. And if that were the case, there would be no questioning it. ***** butthurt Trump supporters are hard pissed at this and are doing everything they can to cheat, including holding these bets as long as possible. ****ing poor losers.
fritz
8:29PM, Nov 13, 2020 UTC
Trump winning in courts:
https://youtu.be/Hsh-aJBsasI
Election fraud evidence:
https://youtu.be/Cf9DwmUMxFc
The "bigger" picture for those who are interested:
https://youtu.be/Y9TviIuXPSE
Pnmuk
7:48PM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC
Jeb bush the official count happens on 6 January
jeb_bush
6:43PM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC
It is true, it's theoretically possible for so called bad faith electors to vote against the popular vote of their state. In 2016 there were 7 (out of 538) faithless electors who did this. There have been no cases ever of these largely performative votes changing an outcome (i.e. moving past 270) and to do so would certainly be a constitutional crisis, and I don't think it qualifies as reasonable doubt over outcome. But it is possible. I agree with Kolotoure77294 re Dec 14th being sensible.
Pnmuk
5:34PM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC
Haha Bitcoin could hit $40k in two weeks Biden punters will be tearing their hair out, say no to underhand betting
Pnmuk
5:33PM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC
Though I'm pretty sure by December 14th trump will be visibly the winner by all counts
Pnmuk
5:31PM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC
If electoral college candidates feel the popular vote is fraudulent they will vote the other way that's why January 6th is the ultimate date when senate announcement of the candidate with 270+ electoral college count
Pnmuk
5:28PM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC
The promise of the bet is 270+ electoral college votes not state certification
Pnmuk
5:25PM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC
You should have added that legal challenge deadline to the ticket Mac court challenges fall away at the supreme Court federal level and the accurate deadline is January 6th when the votes are counted
kolotoure77294
2:47PM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC
I'm hopeful by end of this month, regardless of certification it'll be clear who won as Trump will have given up on a coup d'etat (I don't expect him to concede) and announced a 2024 run.
kolotoure77294
2:44PM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC
Certification of the votes is the deadline for legal challenges pertaining to the counting/voting. Court cases will be over (and Trump has lost 100% - all 12 - of his cases so far). Once the votes are certified we will know who won the election, which is the premise of this bet.
Pnmuk
11:26AM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC
Court action is happening in real time during counting so I don't know what you mean by subsequent as if this is actually going to happen after
red-green
2:21AM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC
so basically we gotta wait til jan 6th to resolve this. OK, that sounds fun. Pretty pointless to put the resolution date as nov 4th idk what that was even there for. I'm guessing to trick people into betting. You obviously knew the electoral rejectoral whatever was gonna vote by nov 4th.
Javan
12:22AM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/10/heres-when-the-results-of-the-2020-election-will-be-finalized.html
heres a source that outlines the process
Javan
11:32PM, Nov 11, 2020 UTC
@kolotoure77294 not quite. yes, states will cast their votes dec.14th but they are not official until they pass through the President of the senate (vice president) . they are then counted by congress jan 6th. This is important because there could be objections.. once congress counts the votes from each state and they convene, the electoral votes will be rewarded and the winner of 270+ will take office jan 21st (day after inauguration)
kolotoure77294
9:54PM, Nov 11, 2020 UTC
@Avalon As per the decision logic, this should be able to be settled once states certify their election results, locking in 270+ for either candidate. Which will be by the end of the month, unless delayed. Once results are certified, we have a winner of the election. Subsequent events are irrelevant as per decision logic. Until then we wait.
Anonymous Bet - care to Login or Sign Up? 
Placing bet on ""
Send winnings to:
*For use with standalone wallets (bitcoin-qt, electrum).
Shared wallets (exchanges, multifactor) will not work!
Proceed
Send your bet to this address:
1EbocQk64Kh3bXVEebPcsCtcJoB2mRwNhk
* Minimum bet is 0.0001 BTC
Your bet will be automatically entered when picked up - no confirmations needed!
Done
