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U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020

U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020


What will be the result of the 2020 United States presidential election?

Decision Logic

The candidate that wins 270+ Electoral College votes at the 2020 presidential election will be settled as winner. Any subsequent events will have no effect on the settlement of this market.
If no candidate wins 270+ Electoral College votes, we wait and the person chosen as President will be settled as winner.
If Trump or Biden are replaced as candidates for any reason before the election this proposition will be settled as a Republicans vs Democrats proposition.

CLOSING IN2020-11-03 12:00:00

8:19PM, Oct 4, 2020 UTC

12:00PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC

12:00PM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC


Total Volume: 21.75

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Pheenixm 11:26PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
@bit_queen Benford's Law is applicable to elections, as it has been used to show fraud in Iran, Bolivia, Venezuela, etc. for decades. I have taken time to educate myself, maybe you should ask why the Wikipedia page for it was only edited AFTER the election? Seems like you're only listening to sources that confirm your narrative – how sad! If you aren't nervous, and you don't have money tied up in this bet, why are you even here in the comments?
Thundy 9:41PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
You can add in more variables to lower the statistical probability of this occurring. You can firstly look at the total active voting population in Durham (244,299) and use that number instead of 321,488. The NC voting record site lets you look at "inactive/removed" voters, click that option. There is only one person with all of these same variables, invariably; they're active voters. If you want to go a step further; validate their voter registration address with their record on prison file.
Thundy 9:36PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
But when you keep increasing the sample size of this happening. One vote, ten votes, one hundred votes, etc it is statistically impossible for them to share all of the same variables. Try to disprove this mathematically and you'll soon find you can't. This is objective proof. There is no hearsay, there is no opinions, this is a statistical reality.
Thundy 9:33PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
Now then, look as the easiest example I can possibly think of objective and easy to prove voter fraud, look at Durham county's prison record and then look at voting records. Put in the same first, middle, last name. Put in the same birth year, month and day. What will you see? Easy proof of illegal votes. Repeat this as many times as you feel like until you feel confident, after all, maybe there is a freak chance that one of those 12 people had the exact first/middle/last name after all, right?
Thundy 9:27PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
So, there's around 12 people being born daily in Durham, if we're being generous. Now, out of those 12 people, how many of those do you think will also share the same first/middle/last name? Now you should be thoroughly convinced the statistical chance of someone sharing all these variables is virtually non-existent.
Thundy 9:17PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
What's the chance in a county of 321,488 that there's someone with an identical first/middle/last name that was born on the same year, same month, same day? Let's do the math, shall we? In Durham county, there's around 4150 being born average each year. Let's round it up to 4500 though, to be fair, maybe one year the citizens there really went at it.
Thundy 9:12PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
Look at prison records. Grab the person's first, middle, last name. Grab their date of birth, the day/month/year they were born. Then input that into the voter record and you'll see countless prisoners that are "active" voting for the first time, aged 30+ on average, via mail in ballot.
Thundy 9:11PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
The second criteria is that they are incapable of checking if they've voted in the election. Prisoners and dead folks can't check until they're out and a lot of these prisoners have sentences that will spill over for other elections. I said it before but you can objectively prove this is happening by comparing them yourself.
Thundy 9:10PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
Although, I have noticed, a lot of the direct fraudulent votes have two sorts of criteria. The first criteria is that the voter hasn't voted in an election prior. The most common way to find these people are by comparing voting records to prison records and obituaries, because there's no previous voter signature on election file: it's accepted as the voter's signature.
Thundy 9:08PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
It's also very suspicious that mismatched signatures are not being counted. For the foreigners (plenty of Canadians posting) these mail in ballots are accepted blindly, even if the signature is completely different with the signature on file. If a vote was sent in your country under your name with a significantly different signature on file and it was accepted, how would you feel about it?
Thundy 9:06PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
It's honestly very disturbing reading people claim mail in ballot fraud isn't occurring when judges and politicians on both sides of the political spectrum are getting elected in office and later being convicted and imprisoned for abusing the mail in ballot system.
Thundy 9:05PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
In several counties, boxes of mail in ballots were "lost" that leaned Trump. Trump's margin needed to win now went from 78,000 to 75,000. These aren't even directly fraudulent votes being found, just huge "missing boxes" of votes that hold 7-8% of all voters in certain counties.
Thundy 8:44PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
It directly contradicts your point where you tried to blanket generalize only 17 fraud votes and use that statistic for the entire population. With 76 cases being caught in 2016, this directly disproves what you say and you admit it does. So now you're backtracking on your previous statement. White collar crime is usually committed by smart individuals, not idiots. The people who were caught were idiots.
Javan 6:52PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
for further comedic effect
donuthole 11:25PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
For comedic effect
bitqueen 11:09PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
I don't know why you keep linking that Thundy as it's not helping your case... The Heritage Foundation database shows just 1298 instances of voter fraud since 1982...
Thundy 6:46PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
By the way, most of her sources have invalid sources attached or don't show the methodology. They simply authoritatively claim things without a shred of evidence. THIS is evidence, you can read each court case yourself and see it's happening on a bigger scale then what you're being told. You can look at fraudulent votes cast in various counties. This is not hearsay, this isn't a conspiracy, this is something you can independently prove right now but you won't. Ask yourself, why won't you?
Thundy 6:38PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
Thundy 6:37PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
You either believe court documents of people being found guilty and sent to prison for mail in ballot fraud by the legal courts or you believe a politician. This isn't something that people on Facebook are saying, lol. These are public records of courts finding various citizens and groups guilty of mail in ballot fraud in 2012 and 2016 that you refuse to look at it because it goes against your narrative. To assume it didn't happen in 2020 would be purposefully ignorant.
Thundy 6:35PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
@jeb_bush There are no facts to be seen in her statements, they're particularly obtuse and politically bent. For example, her statement about only 14 instances of fraud across 82 million votes being found by the secretary of state, when you actually read it, it doesn't say that at all. It says "duplicate" votes, not fraudulent votes. There is proof of more then 14 instances of fraud.
Pnmuk 6:19PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
Ricki I hope you've got strong sedatives for when the actual result comes cause it's going to be a burner
Rocko 5:45PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
So, I’d like to take this time to thank all those losers for their coins
Rocko 5:43PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
@Pnmuk LOOLLL.... sure.. I am 100% with @Thundy on all he said and it’s a pity if anyone thinks that their clan is 100% clean. I bet on Biden but I’d never say neither one are super clean and let’s say if somehow they were, there is other major players that might play dirty for them to be elected. That’s piolitics. Either way, Trump is a goner and I used to be in a hurry to cash out but now with this bull run I am blessed
Pnmuk 5:25PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
Trump fans the supreme court odds are very good
Pnmuk 12:34AM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
No fraud on trump side thundy
jeb_bush 9:58PM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
Regardless there is a truth status. So why don't we sit here quietly until whatever arbitrary measure of finality everyone is forced to accept asserts itself and then one group of us can type "WE TOLD YOU SO" in all caps. I for one will take my humility and ridicule on the chin if it turns out me / @bitqueen / @TeamColtra are wrong and Trump is elected. But, I wouldn't bet on it if I were you ;)
jeb_bush 9:55PM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
lol @Thundy: "Dear bitqueen I'm not going to answer all your well researched and cited posts because you are obviously stupid and you only listen to facts. The thing I believe however is obviously true because here are some things people say on facebook." There is no upside to this debate, the lines have been drawn and the two tribes are only going to listen to themselves. It shouldn't take that much insight to see believing something is unrelated to its truth status.
d_d 8:44PM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
@Thundy Trump actually turned out to be a big disappointment for Russia. There are surely lots of people wishing him well for mostly ideological and impractical reasons. However the Kremlin was clearly rooting for Biden this fall:
Thundy 8:31PM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
Before you blindly believe anything from any source, ask yourself, can you disprove it? If you can, to what degree can you disprove it? We've seen far too much ignorance on the left and the right, the truth gets buried under a pile of ideological **** with mistruths and conspiracies on both sides. Just... try to think for once, really critically think, try to disprove what you believe. I'm not a "Trumpkin" just a rational human being who knows how to spot ********.
Thundy 8:29PM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
I did not vote either this election. I don't care for the left or the right, I'm angry at this blatant corruption and these ideological echo chambers people place themselves in to ignore objective reality when it contradicts with their ideological echo chambers. Democracy was a mistake, as Plato said himself, because anyone can vote and critical thinking is a skill that needs to be cultivated.

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