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U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020
U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020
kolotoure77294
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Description
What will be the result of the 2020 United States presidential election?
Decision Logic
The candidate that wins 270+ Electoral College votes at the 2020 presidential election will be settled as winner. Any subsequent events will have no effect on the settlement of this market.
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If no candidate wins 270+ Electoral College votes, we wait and the person chosen as President will be settled as winner.
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If Trump or Biden are replaced as candidates for any reason before the election this proposition will be settled as a Republicans vs Democrats proposition.
CLOSING IN2020-11-03 12:00:00
8:19PM, Oct 4, 2020 UTC
12:00PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC
12:00PM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC
RESOLVED AT 7:54PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
Total Volume: 21.75
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "Biden"
21.74740381 was split between 46 bettors.
Trump
| Volume: | 14.00 |
| # of Bets: | 93 |
Biden
| Volume: | 7.751 |
| # of Bets: | 46 |
Discussion
zargothrax
6:14AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
It's not "media speculation." The vote counts are official from the state. The only part the media plays is their estimates of how many votes in total there will be, but a bunch of secretaries of state have already called it. Also, faithless electors are quite rare and are almost always settled by faithless elector laws.
I don't really mind waiting, but I think it's silly at this point. The First Lady and Jared Kushner have even urged Trump to concede. It might as well be over at this point.
Javan
5:40AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@TeamColtra once the states have cast their votes, i suppose we will know.
Javan
5:38AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
@red-green 'the whole world' isn't the electoral college. We a want our ps5's. The decision logic is very clear.
Pnmuk
4:51AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Electoral college count is still out all we have now is pure media speculation and representatives don't always vote for the one with more votes
TeamColtra
3:26AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
We shouldn't just confirm the decision because we want the money sooner.. but also i don't think we need to wait until January either. I think we can all agree that a middle ground can be acceptable. Final totals being confirmed in December seems like a fair time to me.
red-green
2:13AM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
What about when the rest of the world calls it, do you think we can move on then or you wanna keep holding up our ps5's?
Javan
10:56PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@jeb_bush
I gotcha. You're right! No one technically has any electoral votes until they are cast and aproved in January.. Obviously in the case of trump throwing in the towel this becomes irrelevant..
jeb_bush
9:23PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@Javan yeah I understand that. I was pointing out that deciding when we call a EC vote as won by a candidate. It could be considered as 1) When a state has been called for the canadidate 2) when the secreatry of state submits the official tallies and deciision (Dec 13th or there abouts), or 3) ultimately when the EC votes are actually cast on Jan 6th.
To "win" an EC vote is not perfectly defined. As I say again, I'm happy with whatever reading BetMoose goes with.
Javan
7:06PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@jeb_bush
"I mean, what is it to "win" an EC vote?"
Its the decision logic for this bet. There were lots of other bets that said nothing about EC votes.. those bets are currently resolved.
Pheenixm
6:34PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@Avalon I do not mean to imply that you hold every possible outcome as a realistic one, but if ongoing lawsuits present a path to victory for President Trump, I expect that you will not release the funds until the outcome of such are known.
Pheenixm
6:31PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@Avalon As the electoral college is not in until January 6th, I expect that if there is any question remaining of who will be elected that you will wait to pay out the bet until ALL possible disputes have been resolved. Dec 14th should be the EARLIEST date you consider releasing this money.
I have enjoyed using your website for many years, but if a premature outcome results in President Trump elected by the electoral college and my money not paid to me, I will seek restitution.
Pnmuk
10:22AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
Red dawn no one anticipated the elections would be controversial the way they are though there were tell tell signs that drive the democrats to viciously try to steal the elections like the hunter biden tapes
red-green
9:59AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
This was supposed to resolve on the 4th no one said anything about waiting until Dec 14th
kardus
7:12AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@jeb_bush "Obvious" how? Pretty much all polls said Biden had more than double digit % leads in nearly every battleground/contested state and it was going to be a landslide victory when in reality he barely scraped a 0.3-1% lead in many. So what seems very "obvious" as you say did not materialise at all. "Winning" an EC vote does not come until 6 Jan or later per the supreme court.
jeb_bush
6:48AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
I mean, what is it to "win" an EC vote? The most difinitive answer is when it is cast on January 6th.
I bet on Biden. It's been obvious Biden was going to win for months, it's been obvious that Trump would claim some kind of fraud for longer.
If BetMoose wants to wait until EC votes are cast, I'm fine with that, but this was only ever going to have one outcome, and where we are headed is obvious to the gorwnups in the room. Happy to wait as required however.
Javan
4:46AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
*Of course, in the electoral college system, states don't actually cast their votes until dec. 14th.. the media does not decide this, despite what people may think.
Pnmuk
4:14AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
Avalon many websites have also projected trump victory we must wait for official confirmation like professionals don't be distracted by the media groupies
Javan
3:58AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
I tend to agree.. fraud and legal battles should have no impact. The rules says 'the canidate that wins 270+ electoral votes'. In normal circumstances there isn't a 'contests' and we can declare a winner the night of..
These are unprecedented times and this election is far from over..
I understand other books closing their bets with verbage like 'winner of the 2020 election'. The reason i picked this bet was BECAUSE it was specific about the electoral college. Thank you @kolotoure77294
Tuned
2:53AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
Most of us made this bet to predict who would become/stay as the next president after all said and done. If the supreme courts decides otherwise in a month but you and your team decides to resolve the bet in a week, are you willing to defend your position?
Do what other bookmakers are doing, looking out for themselves, it benefits them nothing to resolve a bet a week or month earlier if the result is still in gray area.
Tuned
2:53AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@Avalon, No not everyone else is resolving yet, other bookmakers are letting the legal process play out before resolving. Also with that logic, you're saying that whoever is announced/"wins" 270+ electoral college votes first (regardless of voter fraud allegations, lawsuit challenges, recount announcements) wins the bet? Do not let technicalities of words/decision logic get in the way of common sense.
kardus
2:06AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@Avalon Not to mention, The electoral college votes are not even counted and discussed until the 6 January.
kardus
2:05AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@Avalon The electoral college votes have not occurred yet. What is seen on the news is just a likely outcome of the process. Electoral college votes are not determined by the media but by the electoral college itself. "Monday after the second Wednesday in December of presidential election years is set (3 U.S.C. ยง7) as the date on which the electors meet and vote. In 2020, the meeting is on December 14."
red-green
1:43AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
This was trumps plan any way to delegitimize the election so that people betting on him wouldn't lose their money. It's only gonna expose the true validity of the votes and how good of a job they actually did do, even during a pandemic, with infected over-zealous poll watchers thinking they are better than everyone.
dhorks
1:34AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
I'd be impressed if Joe could convince the Georgia republican attorney general and republican governor to rig the election. Call be crazy but maybe it is more likely the person who had been ahead in the polls for the entire election won.
TeamColtra
1:10AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
You know what is stupid? The Democrats organized this sophisticated effort to rig the ballots so Biden could win, yet they all forgot to also mark the senate position so they won't even control senate. :/
Avalon
12:44AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@Pnmuk As per this prop's decision logic, "The candidate that wins 270+ Electoral College votes at the 2020 presidential election will be settled as winner. Any subsequent events will have no effect on the settlement of this market." Legal challenges are considered subsequent events, and everyone else is resolving accordingly as well.
Pnmuk
11:36PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
At supreme Court level the results are unchangeable
Pnmuk
11:32PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
Az, NV, GA are included in the lawsuits the finalisation could be well into December given the usual court processes, the key is state certification not "more certain picture"
Avalon
10:45PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
Hello everyone - please remain calm as we are not planning on settling these outcomes just yet due to all the turbulence. These props can stay open for another week or so until the count is fully complete and a more certain picture is visible. As others have said, the recounts and legal challenges are moot if Biden is confirmed in AZ, NV, and GA so we expect to resolve this sooner than Jan 20th regardless. Note also that Trump conceding is irrelevant to whether he won/lost the election.
red-green
9:59PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
I think we all know what the outcome is, regardless good luck everyone.
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