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U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020

U.S. Presidential Election Winner 2020
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Politics
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Description

What will be the result of the 2020 United States presidential election?

Decision Logic

The candidate that wins 270+ Electoral College votes at the 2020 presidential election will be settled as winner. Any subsequent events will have no effect on the settlement of this market.
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If no candidate wins 270+ Electoral College votes, we wait and the person chosen as President will be settled as winner.
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If Trump or Biden are replaced as candidates for any reason before the election this proposition will be settled as a Republicans vs Democrats proposition.

CLOSING IN2020-11-03 12:00:00

8:19PM, Oct 4, 2020 UTC

12:00PM, Nov 3, 2020 UTC

12:00PM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC

WAITING FOR RESOLUTION

Total Volume: 21.75

This bet is waiting to be resolved.

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Trump
Volume:14.00
19.00255335
# of Bets:93
Biden
Volume:7.751
14.28733562
# of Bets:46

Discussion

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bitqueen 10:37PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
An investigation in Colorado, in which the Secretary of State alleged 100 cases of voter fraud, yielded one conviction. http://www.aurorasentinel.com/news/gessler-voter-sting-nets-1-conviction-despite-accusation-widespread-fraud/
bitqueen 10:37PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
There was no evidence that any of these incidents involved in-person impersonation fraud. Over a five year period, they found “no concerted effort to tilt the election.” http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/12/washington/12fraud.html
bitqueen 10:36PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A specialized United States Department of Justice unit formed with the goal of finding instances of federal election fraud examined the 2002 and 2004 federal elections, and were able to prove that 0.00000013 percent of ballots cast were fraudulent. https://www.aclupa.org/files/1913/7960/9095/Minnite.pdf https://www.brennancenter.org/publication/justice-departments-voter-fraud-scandal-lessons
bitqueen 10:36PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Texas lawmakers purported to pass its strict photo ID law to protect against voter fraud. Yet the chief law enforcement official in the state responsible for such prosecutions knew of only one conviction and one guilty plea that involved in-person voter fraud in all Texas elections from 2002 through 2014. https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legal-work/Findings.pdf
bitqueen 10:35PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
The secretary has also testified about his review of 84 million votes cast in 22 states, which yielded 14 instances of fraud referred for prosecution, which amounts to a 0.00000017 percent fraud rate. https://www.thenation.com/article/voter-fraud-witch-hunt-kansas/
bitqueen 10:34PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, a longtime proponent of voter suppression efforts, argued before state lawmakers that his office needed special power to prosecute voter fraud, because he knew of 100 such cases in his state. After being granted these powers, he has brought six such cases, of which only four have been successful. http://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article77519827.html
bitqueen 10:34PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
...with Judge Posner noting that strict photo ID laws are “now widely regarded as a means of voter suppression rather than of fraud prevention.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/stevens-says-supreme-court-decision-on-voter-id-was-correct-but-maybe-not-right/2016/05/15/9683c51c-193f-11e6-9e16-2e5a123aac62_story.html http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/16/us/politics/judge-in-landmark-case-disavows-support-for-voter-id.html
bitqueen 10:34PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Two of the jurists who weighed in on that case at the time — Republican-appointed former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens and conservative appellate court Judge Richard Posner — have since announced they regret their votes in favor of the law...
bitqueen 10:33PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Even the Supreme Court, in its opinion in Crawford upholding Indiana’s voter ID law, noted that the record in the case “contains no evidence of any [in-person voter impersonation] fraud actually occurring in Indiana at any time in its history.” https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/07-21.ZO.html
bitqueen 10:33PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A federal trial court in Wisconsin reviewing that state’s strict photo ID law found “that impersonation fraud — the type of fraud that voter ID is designed to prevent — is extremely rare” and “a truly isolated phenomenon that has not posed a significant threat to the integrity of Wisconsin’s elections.” https://www.aclu.org/legal-document/frank-v-walker-preliminary-injunction-motion-granted?redirect=legal-document/frank-v-walker-motion-granted
bitqueen 10:32PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
In its opinion striking down North Carolina’s omnibus restrictive election law —which included a voter ID requirement — as purposefully racially discriminatory, the Fourth Circuit noted that the state “failed to identify even a single individual who has ever been charged with committing inperson voter fraud in North Carolina.” http://electionlawblog.org/wp-content/uploads/nc-4th.pdf
bitqueen 10:32PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
The Fifth Circuit, in an opinion finding that Texas’s strict photo ID law is racially discriminatory, noted that there were “only two convictions for in-person voter impersonation fraud out of 20 million votes cast in the decade” before Texas passed its law. https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legal-work/2016.07.20_En%20Banc%20Opinion.pdf
bitqueen 10:31PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Additional research on noncitizen voting can be found here: http://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/analysis-noncitizen-voting-vanishingly-rare. Additional resources can be found here: https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/analysis-andreports.
bitqueen 10:31PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2009 analysis examined 12 states and found that fraud by voters was “very rare,” and also concluded that many of the cases that garnered media attention were ultimately unsubstantiated upon further review. file://bcnyfs01.brennancenterny.org/brennan/Public/Democracy/Voting%20Rights%20&%20Elections/Election%202016/Election%202016%20Controversies/A%202009%20analysis%20examined%2012%20states%20and%20found%20that%20fraud%20by%20voters%20was%20
bitqueen 10:30PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2010 book cataloguing reported incidents of voter fraud concluded that nearly all allegations turned out to be clerical errors or mistakes, not fraud. http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/study-finds-no-evidence-widespread-voter-fraud-n637776
bitqueen 10:30PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2011 study by the Republican National Lawyers Association found that, between 2000 and 2010, 21 states had 1 or 0 convictions for voter fraud or other kinds of voting irregularities. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/debbie-hines/voter-fraud-statistics_b_1139085.html
bitqueen 10:30PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2012 assessment of Georgia’s 2006 election found “no evidence that election fraud was committed under the auspices of deceased registrants.” http://digitalcommons.kennesaw.edu/facpubs/2165/
bitqueen 10:29PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2012 study exhaustively pulled records from every state for all alleged election fraud, and found the overall fraud rate to be “infinitesimal” and impersonation fraud by voters at the polls to be the rarest fraud of all: only 10 cases alleged in 12 years. The same study found only 56 alleged cases of non-citizen voting, in 12 years. http://votingrights.news21.com/article/election-fraud/
bitqueen 10:29PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
While writing a 2012 book, a researcher went back 30 years to try to find an example of voter impersonation fraud determining the outcome of an election, but was unable to find even one. http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/10/29/the-voter-fraud-myth
bitqueen 10:29PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2014 study by the non-partisan Government Accountability Office, which reflected a literature review of the existing research on voter fraud, noted that the studies consistently found “few instances of in-person voter fraud.” http://www.gao.gov/assets/670/665966.pdf
bitqueen 10:28PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2014 study that examined impersonation fraud both at the polls and by mail ballot found zero instances in the jurisdictions studied. http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1532673X13498411
bitqueen 10:28PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2014 nationwide study found “no evidence of widespread impersonation fraud” in the 2012 election. http://online.liebertpub.com/doi/abs/10.1089/elj.2013.0231
bitqueen 10:28PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2014 paper concluded that “the likely percent of non-citizen voters in recent US elections is 0.” http://projects.iq.harvard.edu/cces/news/perils-cherry-picking-low-frequency-events-large-sample-surveys
bitqueen 10:27PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2016 working paper concluded that the upper limit on double voting in the 2012 election was 0.02%. The paper noted that the incident rate was likely much lower, given audits conducted by the researchers showed that “many, if not all, of these apparent double votes could be a result of measurement error.” https://www.dropbox.com/s/fokd83nn4x6wuw9/OnePersonOneVote.pdf?dl=0
bitqueen 10:26PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Research into the 2016 election found no evidence of widespread voter fraud. http://www.dartmouth.edu/~voterfraud/
bitqueen 10:26PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A review of the 2016 election found four documented cases of voter fraud. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/12/01/0-000002-percent-of-all-the-ballots-cast-in-the-2016-election-were-fraudulent/?utm_term=.ff52dd16d6e0
bitqueen 10:25PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
The follow-up study, which looked for fraud specifically in states where politicians have argued that fraud is a pernicious problem, found zero successful prosecutions for impersonation fraud in five states from 2012-2016. http://votingrights.news21.com/article/election-fraud/ https://votingwars.news21.com/voter-fraud-is-not-a-persistent-problem/
bitqueen 10:25PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Two studies done at Arizona State University, one in 2012 and another in 2016, found similarly negligible rates of impersonation fraud. The project found 10 cases of voter impersonation fraud nationwide from 2000-2012.
bitqueen 10:25PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A comprehensive 2014 study published in The Washington Post found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast. Even this tiny number is likely inflated, as the study’s author counted not just prosecutions or convictions, but any and all credible claims. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/08/06/a-comprehensive-investigation-of-voter-impersonation-finds-31-credible-incidents-out-of-one-billion-ballots-cast/
bitqueen 10:24PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
A 2017 analysis published in The Washington Post concluded that there is no evidence to support Trump’s claim that Massachusetts residents were bused into New Hampshire to vote. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/02/28/we-cant-find-any-evidence-of-voting-fraud-in-new-hampshire/?utm_term=.9ab385c64fa0

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