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What will Trump’s job approval rating be on December 31
What will Trump’s job approval rating be on December 31
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Description
Gallup Poll releases Trump’s job approval rating every Monday. On Monday, November 26th his rating had dropped to 38%. What will his Gallup Poll job approval rating be on Monday, December 31, 2018?
Decision Logic
The outcome will be determined by the released Gallup Poll number. If something happens that causes the poll to not be released (Trump is impeached, Gallup goes out of business, etc), this resolves as OTHER.
CLOSING IN2018-12-11 23:00:00
1:52AM, Nov 28, 2018 UTC
11:00PM, Dec 11, 2018 UTC
11:00PM, Dec 31, 2018 UTC
RESOLVED AT 1:47PM, Jan 3, 2019 UTC
Total Volume: 0.0756
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "Other"
0.07561422 was split between 2 bettors.
36% or higher
| Volume: | 0.0466 |
| # of Bets: | 13 |
35% to 33%
| Volume: | 0.0134 |
| # of Bets: | 6 |
32% to 30%
| Volume: | 0.0151 |
| # of Bets: | 2 |
29% or lower
| Volume: | 0.0003 |
| # of Bets: | 3 |
Other
| Volume: | 0.0002 |
| # of Bets: | 2 |
Discussion
MooseMe
2:41PM, Jan 4, 2019 UTC
If anyone wants to see on-gong posts regarding the earliest date that Gallup announced the change from weekly reports to monthly reports, go to the bet "What will Trump's job approval rating be January 14th?" which resolves on January 14th.
d_d
1:48PM, Jan 4, 2019 UTC
(can be read)
d_d
1:47PM, Jan 4, 2019 UTC
sanko places bets anonymously as many people (including me) do. I still can press the 'report' button as the bet has not payed out yet, but I agree that it can be red in both ways and everyone could bet on OTHER in order to hedge. It is just amazing that what seemed to be a 'sure thing' bet was actually not.
MooseMe
12:02PM, Jan 4, 2019 UTC
Sanko has not placed a bet. Someone who believed that mentally unstable Trump was going to do something crazy or someone who believed that Mueller was going to reveal some very incriminating evidence before that date. If you disagree with the resolution, then you should protest before the time is up to bring a moderator into this.
d_d
2:26PM, Jan 3, 2019 UTC
The way this bet was started tells me that someone probably knew something in advance and the main goal was to attract volume. Who on earth would seriously bet on 'lover than 36%' or on '30-32' when the approval rating was always hovering around ~40%.
d_d
2:04PM, Jan 3, 2019 UTC
@MooseMe how do you know that sanko is non interested party?
MooseMe
1:47PM, Jan 3, 2019 UTC
@sanko Thanks for your input. As a non-interested party in this bet your opinion is valued. 'Other' is my gut feeling, so I think it's the right thing to do to set this outcome now.
sanko
1:09PM, Jan 3, 2019 UTC
I think this should be resolved as OTHER:
"If something happens that causes the poll to not be released (Trump is impeached, Gallup goes out of business, etc), this resolves as OTHER."
MooseMe
7:27PM, Dec 31, 2018 UTC
con't ... please see the fourth post down for the beginning. The article shown in the 3rd post down has no date on it and I only first found it as I was searching for today's Gallup number. Once again, I apologize for this mess-up.
MooseMe
7:15PM, Dec 31, 2018 UTC
con't ... please see the third post down for the beginning. In view of the below info, I'm contacting the moderators for a decision on whether this bet gets canceled or whether there's a resolution - I hope that they will make a decision.
MooseMe
6:59PM, Dec 31, 2018 UTC
con't ... approval rating of 2019 on Tuesday, Jan. 15." I had not seen this when I setup the bet. In view of this info, it's unclear if "Other" is a resolution because it might have been a known outcome when the bet was set - I don't know. The link: https://news.gallup.com/poll/245606/update-gallup-presidential-approval-ratings.aspx?g_source=link_newsv9&g_campaign=item_203207&g_medium=copy
MooseMe
6:54PM, Dec 31, 2018 UTC
Sorry guys. It appears that there won't be a December 31st poll number. I found this on the Gallup site today: "In January 2019, Gallup will return to using its national cross-sectional, multiday surveys as the primary vehicle for measuring presidential job approval. Starting in January, we will report presidential approval monthly rather than weekly. The final weekly average from Gallup tracking will be released on Monday, Dec. 24, 2018. Gallup will release its first presidential ... con't
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