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When will Brexit happen, if ever?

When will Brexit happen, if ever?


Will the UK leave the EU between now and a year from now, and if so when?

Decision Logic

Decision based on the UK actually leaving the EU, with our without a deal, by the respective dates. Early resolution possible. Bets after the fact will be cancelled.

CLOSING IN2020-01-06 05:00:00

3:03PM, Jul 16, 2019 UTC

5:00AM, Jan 6, 2020 UTC

1:20AM, Jan 31, 2020 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 9:51PM, Jan 31, 2020 UTC

Total Volume: 0.1307

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "By March 1 2020"

0.13069637 was split between 21 bettors.
By November 1 2019
# of Bets:1
By March 1 2020
# of Bets:21
Not by July 16 2020
# of Bets:8


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d_d 9:29PM, Jan 31, 2020 UTC
UK parliament finally rubber stamps Brexit in no-fuss vote January 9, 2020
Guedez 1:18PM, Jan 31, 2020 UTC
Brexit was passed into law some day in january, so the cutoff point should be 7 days before that 'brexit into law' bill passed, whenever that was
Avalon 1:28AM, Jan 31, 2020 UTC
For those still doubtful or wish to predict specifics, we recommend creating a more specifically-worded prop on items such as trade deals.
Avalon 1:26AM, Jan 31, 2020 UTC
Early outcome known set to January 6th based on the following logic; Dec 12 2019 the Tories won majority in the election, meaning it was semi-guaranteed a withdrawal bill to have been passed (and was). Given a generous 50/50 expected outcome of actual bill passing with no delays, we set the known outcome to be half-way between the election and the formal withdrawal. As per the outcome logic, Brexit was fairly vaguely specified, so 31st Jan is considered the day Britain left the EU.
werewolf 3:05PM, Aug 25, 2019 UTC
I am actually willing to bet on Brexit taking place later than November 1st. Moderator can be contacted by clicking the red button in the right corner.
Lugal 1:01PM, Aug 25, 2019 UTC
Good point, I don't know what I was thinking. Maybe fairest to just cancel and refund in that case. I guess that must be possible?
Lugal 1:00PM, Aug 25, 2019 UTC
Good point, I don't know what I was thinking. Maybe fairest to just cancel and refund in that case. I guess that must be possible?
werewolf 12:33AM, Aug 25, 2019 UTC
How this proposition will be resolved if Brexit happens somewhere in between March 1 and July 16?
werewolf 10:11PM, Aug 23, 2019 UTC
I suppose that if Brexit is going to happen next year, [Not by July] option will be getting more and more volume starting from the early March and essentially it will be after the fact betting. So perhaps the betting deadline should've been moved closer to 1March2000 or even a bit earlier. Not a big deal though.

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