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When will the Presidential election be decided?

When will the Presidential election be decided?
Category:
Politics
By
jonnyq
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Description

The 2020 United States presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020.

The 2016 election was decided in the early morning the day after ballots were cast when Clinton conceded to Trump. Likewise the 2012 the election was decided in the early morning the day after the ballots were cast when Romney conceded to Obama. In 2012 McCain conceded to Obama the day of the election. In 2000 Gore did not concede the election until December 13.

Decision Logic

The bet will be considered won if CNN, FOX and MSNBC all report the concession of the loser of the election and the President-elect or President (if incumbent wins) gives an election victory speech. For simplicity, the outcome will be decided by the date and time the President-elect/President first appears at a podium in Eastern Standard Time.

EG If President the President appears at the podium at November 4 12:00AM EST after a concession by the losing candidate, November 4 will be the winning bet.

If no victory speech occurs, the election will be considered decided on inauguration day.

462
CLOSING IN2020-11-07 05:00:00

6:05AM, Aug 14, 2020 UTC

5:00AM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC

5:42PM, Nov 13, 2020 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 2:04AM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC

Total Volume: 0.1257

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "November 7 or any day after"

0.12573187 was split between 9 bettors.
November 3
Volume:0.0007
0.0024195
# of Bets:3
November 4
Volume:0.0439
0.45178069
# of Bets:4
November 5
Volume:0.0150
0.13535
# of Bets:2
November 6
Volume:0.0120
0.11654
# of Bets:2
November 7 or any day after
Volume:0.0541
0.422987
# of Bets:9

Discussion

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jonnyq 5:00AM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
@oracleon That's a fair criticism. I'll try to do better next time, but if it makes you feel any better I lost on this bet too.
oracleon 8:03AM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
In other words, I agree that the election will have to be decided at some point after November 7, and so I didn’t report the bet. I just wanted to point out that the bet’s logic description wasn’t met yet, because it depends on a concession which may never happen.
oracleon 7:55AM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
@johnnyq I didn’t report the bet because I believe the rules don’t accurately convey the spirit of the title, and I wagered on the basis of the title. Yes, the rules state “if no victory speech occurs...” Did you mean “if no concession speech occurs...”?
jonnyq 1:39AM, Nov 16, 2020 UTC
oracleon. If you'd like to report to moderators you can. However, it was written that "If no victory speech occurs, the election will be considered decided on inauguration day." Based on this language and wording I think we can consider this election resolved after November 7th. Honestly, didn't even consider this sort of weird outcome that we've ended up with.
oracleon 5:47PM, Nov 14, 2020 UTC
Why is this bet resolving before the losing candidate concedes? A resolution assumes he will concede after Nov 7, but if he doesn’t this should be cancelled

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