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Which party will lead Canada after the next election?

Which party will lead Canada after the next election?
Category:
Politics
By
Porky
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Description

With Canadian elections approaching, who will lead Canada?

The two major parties are the Liberals, currently in power, led by Justin Trudeau; and the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre. Four other parties currently have representatives in Parliament.

Currently, the Liberals lead, but it is rumored that Trudeau may step down. The election is scheduled for October 20th, 2025, but may be held earlier if the government dissolves.

Decision Logic

The party of the Prime Minister after the 2025 elections is the winner.

CONSERVATIVES - The Conservative party, Poilievre or his successor, is PM
LIBERALS - The Liberal party, Trudeau or his successor, is PM
OTHER - the next PM is from any of the other parties

Anti-leech provision: bets must be placed at least one calendar day prior to the vote. Bets made after that date will be refunded.
Early decision possible if an early election is called.

CLOSING IN2025-04-29 04:00:00

10:55PM, Dec 16, 2024 UTC

4:00AM, Apr 29, 2025 UTC

5:43PM, May 23, 2025 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 1:18AM, May 28, 2025 UTC

Total Volume: 0.0093

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "Liberals"

0.00927949 was split between 13 bettors.
Conservatives
Volume:0.0030
0.10473
# of Bets:2
Liberals
Volume:0.0062
0.15269
# of Bets:13
Other
Volume:0.0001
0.003491
# of Bets:1

Discussion

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Porky 1:19AM, May 28, 2025 UTC
Thanks, admins! I hope I picked the correct result. :-)
Porky 4:07AM, Apr 29, 2025 UTC
I've submitted an "outcome known" report, so whenever @Avalon cleans up the completed bets, this will get paid out.
Porky 4:04AM, Apr 29, 2025 UTC
CBC calls it for the Liberals and Carney. https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/carneys-liberals-beat-conservatives-ctv-news-declares-will-form-minority-government/
freedom 4:10PM, Apr 4, 2025 UTC
@Porky Liberals are cheap but ugh ya well got a few more weeks to see if this holds
Porky 3:44AM, Mar 18, 2025 UTC
@freedom with Trump pissing off Canadians, it looks like this will actually be a contest now. Hard to believe Canadians are suddenly supporting the Liberals after over a decade of worsening economic conditions solely caused by them, not to mention the COVID lockdowns and border restrictions.
freedom 12:57PM, Jan 8, 2025 UTC
Not a snowballs chance in hell haha even with the reset of Trudeau I made a bet for the runner up Viva Quebec :D
Porky 3:55AM, Dec 25, 2024 UTC
Surely someone will stick up for Turdeau!
SpinningBall 12:19PM, Dec 24, 2024 UTC
This is so in the bag for Pierre you might not get a single counterparty, lol

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