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Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?

Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?


Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Decision Logic

The person elected as President will be the winner of the bet. No early resolution is possible. Bet runs for a full year. Bet resolves the day after Election day: November 4th, 2020. In case of recount, the outcome date will be extended to a point in time when winner is known. Official news source confirms winner.

CLOSING IN2019-11-29 04:55:00

3:23AM, Nov 29, 2018 UTC

4:55AM, Nov 29, 2019 UTC

4:55AM, Nov 5, 2020 UTC

RESOLVED AT 6:51PM, Dec 15, 2020 UTC

Total Volume: 0.9067

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "Joe Biden"

0.90668664 was split between 10 bettors.
Donald Trump
# of Bets:23
Kamala Harris
# of Bets:14
Joe Biden
# of Bets:10
Elizabeth Warren
# of Bets:17
# of Bets:19


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nineseven 3:12PM, Dec 20, 2020 UTC
Guedez 2:18PM, Dec 20, 2020 UTC
@BetMoose @Avalon Man, I sure hope BetMoose have the money to pay everyone twice
grolsch 4:29AM, Dec 18, 2020 UTC
@Avalon Will you please help us put an end to this madness. Biden won the electoral college, in accordance with the US constitution - As affirmed by the 50 states. Supreme Court threw out the Trump/Texas challenge. As @nineseven noted: even if Biden dies, he still won the election. For Trump to steal the election with the help of Congress, democrats in the House would need to vote against Biden! There are ZERO valid arguments to hold this up. So please, help.
grolsch 8:24PM, Dec 16, 2020 UTC
@Guedez *Biden's win.
grolsch 8:23PM, Dec 16, 2020 UTC
@Guedez Just stop. Please. This is getting ridiculous. The electoral college has formally picked Biden as the winner. The Supreme Court threw out their challenge. Even Mitch McConnell has congratulated Biden. Btw: You're wrong about Pence. He doesn't hold the power to invalidate Trump's win. Read the constitution and US election law.
nineseven 7:06PM, Dec 16, 2020 UTC
@BetMoose @Avalon The electoral college has elected Joe Biden. If Biden dies tomorrow, he would still and always will be the winner of this election. Most betting sites have already resolved their election bets. It is utterly infuriating that you are humoring sore losers like @Guedez who will always have another excuse to delay the payments, especially since Bitcoin is at an all-time high right now which might not last much longer. Please send the payments already.
Guedez 6:14PM, Dec 16, 2020 UTC
@BetMoose @Avalon Why are this being resolved? Pence can straight up say 'I won't count either' or 'I count the republican electoral votes'. This is nowhere near done
Guedez 9:03PM, Nov 28, 2020 UTC
Sorry, the video is not actually new, just went viral recently
Guedez 6:10PM, Nov 28, 2020 UTC Not even CNN can say Trump can't win anymore. According to CNN, this constitutional trick would pan out at about jan 6th when the EC votes are tallied by the congress.
fuzzybritches 8:04PM, Nov 25, 2020 UTC
I believe the right thing to do is wait. As long as there are recounts, audits, and litigation occurring it seems smart to just wait a little bit longer.
Guedez 8:20PM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
I believe certifications are only final after December 8. "The ‘Safe Harbor’ deadline". And even then there are the electoral votes going unfaithful.
Guedez 8:18PM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
@grolsch We don't get to 'see' that the winner is 'clear'. Not to mention there is even the possibility of unfaithful electors. Certifications can be overruled in court. There is no 'clear' or 'certain' in this anywhere in sight.
grolsch 8:14PM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
@Guedez Indeed, and the recounts in MI and PA have ended -> Results are certified. Biden won the states' electors. Thus, Trump no longer has a viable pathway to victory. This isn't hard Guedez. It's basic math/EC votes. We follow the logic of the market, and now see that the "winner is clear". Heck, Even Trump has allowed for the transition to begin through the GSA.
Guedez 8:09PM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
@grolsch There was a recount, if you want to be strict about the logic. There was recount -> until winner is known. A winner is not decided by a majority opinion of people watching the competition. The winner is decided when the winner is decided, and to know that, we check the constitution to know when the president is decided. You can't just be strict about some parts and loose about other parts of the logic.
grolsch 8:02PM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
@Guedez Dude, that's just plain wrong. The author explicitly says: "Bet resolves the day after Election day: November 4th, 2020. In case of recount, the outcome date will be extended to a point in time when winner is known" Again: PA and MI have certified their votes. Let's say Trump won GA, WI and AZ. Even that won't be enough, as he'd still have 269 electoral votes. You see? It's impossible for Trump to win at this stage now that PA and MI is off the table.
Guedez 7:55PM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
@grolsch If you are going by the market author's logic then it goes until a bit after the electoral votes are actually cast and verified. That's the only time we know the winner according to the constitution.
grolsch 7:49PM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
@Guedez I'm following the market author's logic, which does not mention "pending legal challenges". With that being said: Since MI and PA has certified their votes, Trump no longer has a path to victory. So, I'm respectfully asking that @fuzzybritches help resolve this, in accordance with what @Avalon discussed below. Bettors shouldn't be kept from accessing their funds when the result is clear and well established.
Guedez 6:45PM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
The certification can be overruled still though, there should be no resolving while there are pending legal challenges. The winner is only known after the electoral college cast votes. Last thing I need is this getting resolved only to change a week later.
Avalon 5:45PM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
We will defer to @fuzzybritches to resolve first. As written, the decision logic is the person elected president, the date of which is hotly debated as you can see below. The final date is January 7th. If the host resolves before then, that's ok too as long as there are no valid arguments against.
grolsch 4:42PM, Nov 24, 2020 UTC
Hi @Avalon. Please consider resolving this. PA Supreme Court just tossed out Trump's lawsuit, and the votes were just certified for Biden. That means Biden has decisively won PA, MI and GA, which leaves Trump with no pathway to victory: Thank you.
Guedez 2:00PM, Nov 18, 2020 UTC
@grolsch But that's my whole point, they did not, there was no confirmations yet. The states did not determine the outcome, and then that alone is not enough. Back to discussing the decision logic: "In case of recount, the outcome date will be extended to a point in time when winner is known". Since there was a recount, until the winner is known, this is frozen, and we are very far from knowing the winner, that's happening somewhere in December or January. Welcome to contested elections.
grolsch 8:16PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
@Lugal - Indeed. Some traders on this site appear to live in an alternate reality where real world facts don't matter. Hopefully the moderators will cut through at some point.
grolsch 8:14PM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
@Guedez You're missing the forest for the trees. News reports are based on the "official counts" from the states themselves. Including PA, GA, MI and AZ. What other "official sources" do you need, besides the states that actually determine the outcome of the election? Unless you think Trump's frivolous and baseless lawsuits have an actual chance of flipping 4 states into his fold. You're grasping at straws, and it's really sad to watch.
Guedez 1:07PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
And before you say "just remove 'official' from the wording" then I could very well ask to remove 'news source' from it too. There are only "Official Sources" or "News sources". There is no such thing as a "Official News Source"
Guedez 1:05PM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
"official news source confirms the winner" Are you asking to refund the bet? There is not a single "official news source" for the election. Show be the law that made any news source official.
Lugal 9:03AM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
Agree with @grolsch. Those are the terms. Resolve the bet. Other bets have other terms, I won't complain about waiting for a while with those.
grolsch 2:55AM, Nov 15, 2020 UTC
@Guedez Wrong. The terms of this contract literally reads "official news source confirms the winner". Fox News, NY Times, CNN, Politico, AP News. They've all called the election for Biden. Trump has zero pathways to win this, besides launching a coup. So pretty please, with some sugar on top of it, resolve the market.
bitqueen 5:41AM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC
Bet on Trump's final EC vote count here; will audits, recounts, or faithless electors help him before Jan 6th?
Guedez 5:34PM, Nov 11, 2020 UTC
No state has certified the results, nobody won yet. The 'serious media' is not the authority and they can only give their opinion.
grolsch 9:54PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
@fuzzybritches It is obvious that Biden has won this. All of the serious media channels have already called the election, including Fox News. No proof has been provided that there's somewhat a "democratic cabal" that cheated Trump out of his victory. Just vague accusations and hearsay on Twitter. Trump literally has no legal path to change the outcome. 3 judges already threw out their bogus lawsuits. Please - Stop procrastinating and resolve!

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