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Wil the Kerch Strait Bridge to Crimea get blown up?

Wil the Kerch Strait Bridge to Crimea get blown up?
Category:
Politics
By
Porky
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Description

Nice bridge, sure would be a shame if somethin' happened to it, eh? (Well, kinda yeah, but no, not really.)

Russia annexed Crimea and built a 14 mile long bridge to it. Ukraine has been unhappy about that, and with Russia having invaded Ukraine, Ukraine is no longer trying to avoid conflict with Russia.

Will Ukraine (or "someone") blow up the Kerch Strait Bridge between Russia and the Crimean Peninsula?

Ukrainian, European, or US media announcements of the cause of any damage or closure are deemed dispositive. In light of their lies about the Moskva sinking, Russian announcements of the cause of any damage are preemptively deemed unreliable and shall be ignored.

Decision Logic

If both the rail span and automotive/truck span remain in normal use (aside from temporary weather-related outages) until July 2023, NO wins.

If one or both of the rail span or the automotive/truck span is rendered unusable by human-caused damage for more than 1 week starting prior to July 1 2023 but after January 1 2023, 1H2023 wins.

If one or both of the rail span or the automotive/truck span is rendered unusable by human-caused damage for more than 1 week starting prior to January 1 2023, 2H2022 wins.

Anti-leech provision: bets on either 2H2022 or 1H2023 made after an attempted strike that damaged but did not yet close one or both spans shall be removed/refunded.

Early outcome is possible if/when someone blows up the bridge.

CLOSING IN2023-06-30 04:55:00

2:25PM, Jul 25, 2022 UTC

4:55AM, Jun 30, 2023 UTC

5:00AM, Jul 1, 2023 UTC

39.465xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier

Total Volume: 0.0007

NO
Volume: 0.0005
0.0207775
# of Bets: 1
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

2H2022
Volume: 0.0002
0.00835
# of Bets: 1
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

1H2023
Volume: 0.0000
0
# of Bets: 0
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Discussion

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Porky 2:32PM, Jul 25, 2022 UTC
Note, the entire 14 mile long bridge doesn't have to be sunk into the ocean; damaging enough of the bridge to make it impossible to send either a train or trucks/cars or both across the full length is sufficient. A bunch of holes punched in a short stretch that makes it impassable without risking collapse, as was done to the Antonivka Road Bridge, is sufficient. Taking out the arch, as implied by the Ukrainian Defense Minister's tweet, is also sufficient.

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