Wil the Kerch Strait Bridge to Crimea get blown up?

Category:

Description

Nice bridge, sure would be a shame if somethin' happened to it, eh? (Well, kinda yeah, but no, not really.)

Russia annexed Crimea and built a 14 mile long bridge to it. Ukraine has been unhappy about that, and with Russia having invaded Ukraine, Ukraine is no longer trying to avoid conflict with Russia.

Will Ukraine (or "someone") blow up the Kerch Strait Bridge between Russia and the Crimean Peninsula?

Ukrainian, European, or US media announcements of the cause of any damage or closure are deemed dispositive. In light of their lies about the Moskva sinking, Russian announcements of the cause of any damage are preemptively deemed unreliable and shall be ignored.

Decision Logic

If both the rail span and automotive/truck span remain in normal use (aside from temporary weather-related outages) until July 2023, NO wins.

If one or both of the rail span or the automotive/truck span is rendered unusable by human-caused damage for more than 1 week starting prior to July 1 2023 but after January 1 2023, 1H2023 wins.

If one or both of the rail span or the automotive/truck span is rendered unusable by human-caused damage for more than 1 week starting prior to January 1 2023, 2H2022 wins.

Anti-leech provision: bets on either 2H2022 or 1H2023 made after an attempted strike that damaged but did not yet close one or both spans shall be removed/refunded.

Early outcome is possible if/when someone blows up the bridge.

697

CLOSING IN2022-10-08 04:00:00

2:25PM, Jul 25, 2022 UTC

4:00AM, Oct 8, 2022 UTC

4:41AM, Mar 9, 2023 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 7:23PM, May 24, 2023 UTC

Total Volume: 0.0008

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "2H2022"

0.0008 was split between 2 bettors.

Volume:	0.0005
0.0207775
# of Bets:	1

2H2022

Volume:	0.0003
0.0122335
# of Bets:	2

1H2023

Volume:	0.0000
0
# of Bets:	0

Related see more from Politics

Discussion

Porky 7:24PM, May 24, 2023 UTC

@Avalon sorry for not checking in for a while, I moved internationally and have had almost no internet access. Back now. I've set the outcome per your decision.

Porky 7:22PM, May 24, 2023 UTC

Thanks, @Avalon. I think I'm going to quit making convoluted multiway bets forevermore. :-( Famous last words, amirite?

Avalon 4:42AM, Mar 9, 2023 UTC

We've concluded in our view that the Oct 8th bombing/damage to the bridge which caused it to be inoperable/unusable during that time as a valid outcome for the purposes of this bet. 2H2022 is corrected outcome with further bets being invalid due to early resolution.

dogiv 10:51PM, Mar 6, 2023 UTC

The anti-leech provision doesn't really make sense as written. The resolution criterion is based on when the bridge was rendered unusable, not when it was attached. So a bet would only be a leech if it was made after the bridge was rendered unusable.

Porky 10:10PM, Mar 2, 2023 UTC

3/N: @Avalon I beg for your Board of Governors to determine an outcome, because none of the options seem to be valid. (A) Bridge was still barely usable throughout 2022, (B) Bridge is clearly out of commission in 2023 but no one bet on it when such bets were valid, and (C) the shutdown makes "No" not the outcome. My recommendation is that it be refunded under the heading "bet originator didn't cover the possibilities."

Porky 10:04PM, Mar 2, 2023 UTC

2/N: I'm sorry, but I have absolutely no idea how to determine an outcome for this bet now. It never ever even crossed my mind that: (1) Ukraine would bomb the bridge in 2022, (2) but it would remain barely usable with tiny amounts of traffic, (3) until in 2023 Russia was forced to clearly shut down the rail line for repairs, on top of which (4) no one bet on 2023 until after the anti-leech provision made such bets invalid.

Porky 10:02PM, Mar 2, 2023 UTC

1/N: Video from two days ago shows that the rail bridge has been disassembled for repair, rendering it inoperable. https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11f787s/reportedly_this_video_is_from_last_night_it_shows/

Porky 2:07AM, Nov 1, 2022 UTC

BTW, the anti-leech provision means the only bettable option at this point is "no".

Porky 2:05AM, Nov 1, 2022 UTC

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1587167853412847616 "Kerch Bridge Update: Minister of Transportation Savelev says that 250 light cars on average cross the bridge per hour. Heavy cargo is being sent via occupied land corridor from Rostov oblast (7.5k trucks since Oct 8). Only 16 train pairs have been sent across the bridge so far"

Porky 2:04AM, Nov 1, 2022 UTC

I've been wondering about the rail side, since I keep seeing reports that it is unusable. However, the following seems to indicate that it is still minimally functional: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1587167853412847616

Porky 2:16AM, Oct 10, 2022 UTC

From random news reports, the Russians are allowing cars up to about 7000lbs across the damaged span in single file. The rail bridge still has one functioning track out of the pair, but the concrete is heat-damaged from the burning fuel that was pouring down it. One guy's commentary: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1579139255531896832.html

Porky 3:56PM, Oct 8, 2022 UTC

I guess we wait and see whether the railroad span was sufficiently damaged to stay out of service for a bit. Or whether either or both of the surviving spans collapse under use. All I know is, if I were there, I'd pick swimming over either driving or taking the train.

Porky 3:55PM, Oct 8, 2022 UTC

Uncalling it, video shows they're actually rolling cars across the damaged-but-not-sunk side. O.o Better them than me. https://twitter.com/BPartisans/status/1578756644280111105

Porky 9:32AM, Oct 8, 2022 UTC

Second half of roadway, the adjacent section is shattered and just hanging in pieces on its cables. Calling it, that's unusable. You might walk a bicycle across it but any sort of vehicle traffic would risk collapsing the section into the sea. https://img.4plebs.org/boards/pol/image/1665/21/1665217647779943.jpg

Porky 8:06AM, Oct 8, 2022 UTC

Video of the truck bomb, detonation is at the three second mark. My guess is that the fire then fortuitously spread to the POL tanker cars that a train on the railway bridge was pulling, but it's possible the train was mined separately. https://files.catbox.moe/1f7mj6.mp4

Porky 5:43AM, Oct 8, 2022 UTC

Probably resolved, the TheDrive article claims that both road spans are destroyed and that the rail one may collapse soon due to the fire. But I'll wait to call it until there's total confirmation.

Porky 5:41AM, Oct 8, 2022 UTC

BOOM https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/explosion-rocks-russias-prized-kerch-strait-bridge-leading-to-crimea

Porky 2:32PM, Jul 25, 2022 UTC

Note, the entire 14 mile long bridge doesn't have to be sunk into the ocean; damaging enough of the bridge to make it impossible to send either a train or trucks/cars or both across the full length is sufficient. A bunch of holes punched in a short stretch that makes it impassable without risking collapse, as was done to the Antonivka Road Bridge, is sufficient. Taking out the arch, as implied by the Ukrainian Defense Minister's tweet, is also sufficient.

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