Wil the Kerch Strait Bridge to Crimea get blown up?
Nice bridge, sure would be a shame if somethin' happened to it, eh? (Well, kinda yeah, but no, not really.)
Russia annexed Crimea and built a 14 mile long bridge to it. Ukraine has been unhappy about that, and with Russia having invaded Ukraine, Ukraine is no longer trying to avoid conflict with Russia.
Will Ukraine (or "someone") blow up the Kerch Strait Bridge between Russia and the Crimean Peninsula?
Ukrainian, European, or US media announcements of the cause of any damage or closure are deemed dispositive. In light of their lies about the Moskva sinking, Russian announcements of the cause of any damage are preemptively deemed unreliable and shall be ignored.
If both the rail span and automotive/truck span remain in normal use (aside from temporary weather-related outages) until July 2023, NO wins.
If one or both of the rail span or the automotive/truck span is rendered unusable by human-caused damage for more than 1 week starting prior to July 1 2023 but after January 1 2023, 1H2023 wins.
If one or both of the rail span or the automotive/truck span is rendered unusable by human-caused damage for more than 1 week starting prior to January 1 2023, 2H2022 wins.
Anti-leech provision: bets on either 2H2022 or 1H2023 made after an attempted strike that damaged but did not yet close one or both spans shall be removed/refunded.
Early outcome is possible if/when someone blows up the bridge.
2:25PM, Jul 25, 2022 UTC
4:00AM, Oct 8, 2022 UTC
4:41AM, Mar 9, 2023 UTC
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