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Wil the Kerch Strait Bridge to Crimea get blown up?

Wil the Kerch Strait Bridge to Crimea get blown up?
Category:
Politics
By
Porky
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Description

Nice bridge, sure would be a shame if somethin' happened to it, eh? (Well, kinda yeah, but no, not really.)

Russia annexed Crimea and built a 14 mile long bridge to it. Ukraine has been unhappy about that, and with Russia having invaded Ukraine, Ukraine is no longer trying to avoid conflict with Russia.

Will Ukraine (or "someone") blow up the Kerch Strait Bridge between Russia and the Crimean Peninsula?

Ukrainian, European, or US media announcements of the cause of any damage or closure are deemed dispositive. In light of their lies about the Moskva sinking, Russian announcements of the cause of any damage are preemptively deemed unreliable and shall be ignored.

Decision Logic

If both the rail span and automotive/truck span remain in normal use (aside from temporary weather-related outages) until July 2023, NO wins.

If one or both of the rail span or the automotive/truck span is rendered unusable by human-caused damage for more than 1 week starting prior to July 1 2023 but after January 1 2023, 1H2023 wins.

If one or both of the rail span or the automotive/truck span is rendered unusable by human-caused damage for more than 1 week starting prior to January 1 2023, 2H2022 wins.

Anti-leech provision: bets on either 2H2022 or 1H2023 made after an attempted strike that damaged but did not yet close one or both spans shall be removed/refunded.

Early outcome is possible if/when someone blows up the bridge.

CLOSING IN2023-06-30 04:55:00

2:25PM, Jul 25, 2022 UTC

4:55AM, Jun 30, 2023 UTC

5:00AM, Jul 1, 2023 UTC

26.060xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier

Total Volume: 0.0008

NO
Volume: 0.0005
0.0207775
# of Bets: 1
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

2H2022
Volume: 0.0003
0.0122335
# of Bets: 2
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

1H2023
Volume: 0.0000
0
# of Bets: 0
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Discussion

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Porky 2:07AM, Nov 1, 2022 UTC
BTW, the anti-leech provision means the only bettable option at this point is "no".
Porky 2:05AM, Nov 1, 2022 UTC
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1587167853412847616 "Kerch Bridge Update: Minister of Transportation Savelev says that 250 light cars on average cross the bridge per hour. Heavy cargo is being sent via occupied land corridor from Rostov oblast (7.5k trucks since Oct 8). Only 16 train pairs have been sent across the bridge so far"
Porky 2:04AM, Nov 1, 2022 UTC
I've been wondering about the rail side, since I keep seeing reports that it is unusable. However, the following seems to indicate that it is still minimally functional: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1587167853412847616
Porky 2:16AM, Oct 10, 2022 UTC
From random news reports, the Russians are allowing cars up to about 7000lbs across the damaged span in single file. The rail bridge still has one functioning track out of the pair, but the concrete is heat-damaged from the burning fuel that was pouring down it. One guy's commentary: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1579139255531896832.html
Porky 3:56PM, Oct 8, 2022 UTC
I guess we wait and see whether the railroad span was sufficiently damaged to stay out of service for a bit. Or whether either or both of the surviving spans collapse under use. All I know is, if I were there, I'd pick swimming over either driving or taking the train.
Porky 3:55PM, Oct 8, 2022 UTC
Uncalling it, video shows they're actually rolling cars across the damaged-but-not-sunk side. O.o Better them than me. https://twitter.com/BPartisans/status/1578756644280111105
Porky 9:32AM, Oct 8, 2022 UTC
Second half of roadway, the adjacent section is shattered and just hanging in pieces on its cables. Calling it, that's unusable. You might walk a bicycle across it but any sort of vehicle traffic would risk collapsing the section into the sea. https://img.4plebs.org/boards/pol/image/1665/21/1665217647779943.jpg
Porky 8:06AM, Oct 8, 2022 UTC
Video of the truck bomb, detonation is at the three second mark. My guess is that the fire then fortuitously spread to the POL tanker cars that a train on the railway bridge was pulling, but it's possible the train was mined separately. https://files.catbox.moe/1f7mj6.mp4
Porky 5:43AM, Oct 8, 2022 UTC
Probably resolved, the TheDrive article claims that both road spans are destroyed and that the rail one may collapse soon due to the fire. But I'll wait to call it until there's total confirmation.
Porky 5:41AM, Oct 8, 2022 UTC
BOOM https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/explosion-rocks-russias-prized-kerch-strait-bridge-leading-to-crimea
Porky 2:32PM, Jul 25, 2022 UTC
Note, the entire 14 mile long bridge doesn't have to be sunk into the ocean; damaging enough of the bridge to make it impossible to send either a train or trucks/cars or both across the full length is sufficient. A bunch of holes punched in a short stretch that makes it impassable without risking collapse, as was done to the Antonivka Road Bridge, is sufficient. Taking out the arch, as implied by the Ukrainian Defense Minister's tweet, is also sufficient.

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