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Will 2020 Census forms include Citizenship Question?
Will 2020 Census forms include Citizenship Question?
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Description
Bet resolves in favor of Yes if any of the questionnaires distributed as part of the 2020 Census include, intentionally or accidentally, a Citizenship Question.
Otherwise, if there is no public confirmation that at least one 2020 Census form was distributed with a Citizenship Question, this bet resolves in favor of No.
Decision Logic
For Yes to win - prior to May 1, 2020, it is publicly confirmed (in a manner that can be reasonably verified & corroborated) that a questionnaire(s) was distributed as a part of the 2020 Census (i.e. to conduct the decennial population count of the US, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Island Areas) that included a question asking the respondent if he/she is a citizen of the US ("Citizenship Question"). Such confirmation, resolves this Market for Yes even if it is also confirmed that the questionnaire(s) were mistakenly printed/distributed during the 2020 Census or if efforts are made to mitigate the effects of this printing/distribution error. Test forms, like the 2019 Census Test, do not resolve this market for Yes.
CLOSING IN2020-05-01 16:00:00
4:52AM, Jul 29, 2019 UTC
4:00PM, May 1, 2020 UTC
6:00PM, May 1, 2020 UTC
RESOLVED AT 6:29PM, May 2, 2020 UTC
Total Volume: 0.1495
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "No"
0.1495 was split between 7 bettors.
YES
| Volume: | 0.0294 |
| # of Bets: | 5 |
NO
| Volume: | 0.1201 |
| # of Bets: | 7 |
Discussion
GarySpivey
2:32AM, May 26, 2020 UTC
Last point - the spirit of the prop related to if any 2020 Census questionnaire was "printed/distributed" with a citizenship question. Although there was a different census form used for mainland US vs, the form used for Island Areas, rules for this prop specifically confirm "Island Area" questionnaire counts as a 2020 Census form. You have to ignore the rules as written to say its not in spirit of the rules to rely on both mainland census form and island area census form. UNFAIR!
GarySpivey
2:10AM, May 26, 2020 UTC
Avalon states- "our moderators did their own research to confirm that no forms were really printed (at least not provably so) and resolved as such." THIS CLAIM IS 100% FALSE. The Census Bureau monthly status report confirms "Began Island Area printing production on June 3 and completed on June 28." See for yourself - page 11 of the pdf found at - https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/program-management/monthly-status-reports/2019-06-msr.pdf . Thats proof!
GarySpivey
2:04AM, May 26, 2020 UTC
Note- page 11 of Census Bureau status report for June 2019, confirms "Began Island Area printing production on June 3 and completed on June 28." see - https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/program-management/monthly-status-reports/2019-06-msr.pdf
The decision to "remove" the citizenship question from island area questionnaire was not made until August. See-
https://www.npr.org/2019/08/09/749865233/citizenship-question-to-be-removed-from-2020-census-in-u-s-territories
GarySpivey
2:01AM, May 26, 2020 UTC
FYI - prior Census bet WAS RESOLVED CORRECTLY. The decision logic referenced "printing" of a questionnaire w citizen question by census bureau vs. decision logic of this Census market that referenced "printed/distributed". See decision logic for first Census prop below-
"Yes wins bet if...it is publicly confirmed...that at least one questionnaire WAS PRINTED for use in the 2020 Census...This Market resolves for Yes even if such questionnaire(s) were PRINTED for the 2020 Census by mistake."
Avalon
1:39AM, May 26, 2020 UTC
@d_d I understand your logic however the previous prop was the one that was resolved incorrectly due to us not having enough information at the time. The author at the time wrote a multi-page summary including screenshots and supporting documentation that we accepted. This prop had more volume so we had more time to investigate the conflicting report. You wagered on what you thought was a known outcome instead of reporting this prop for early resolution based on the previous prop.
d_d
8:12AM, May 20, 2020 UTC
- 0.00450733= 0.02096241!
d_d
8:11AM, May 20, 2020 UTC
in total I placed 0.00136974+0.003+0.0212 BTC on both props and got back only 0.00450733 btc, so clearly I lost 0.02546974
d_d
8:05AM, May 20, 2020 UTC
I placed 0.0013697421 BTC on NO [Citizenship Question by Jan 1?]
d_d
8:00AM, May 20, 2020 UTC
@Avalon. right after the first bet was resolved as YES by the moderator, I went heavy on YES here...
0.003 was placed on NO by me and 0.0212 on YES. Well, that was certainly a risky decision on my part, but I really lost twice on two opposite outcomes on the same bet. Perhaps at least 2 my bets made on the incorrectly resolved [Citizenship Question by Jan 1?] prop can be refunded?
Avalon
4:27AM, May 20, 2020 UTC
In general, BetMoose and its moderators try their best to do their own research however this takes considerable time and we do not get involved too much if the volume is small or the prop is between 2 parties unless we get conflicts and proof is provided from both parties in the latter case. We agree that the wording in this decision logic is slightly ambiguous due to the nature of the proposition, however, it's not ambiguous enough to warrant cancellation.
Avalon
4:25AM, May 20, 2020 UTC
@d_d you have wagers on both yes and no on this prop. Furthermore, as GarySpivey mentioned, the previous prop went without any supporting documentation in favour of No, so based on his documentation, it did appear that indeed it matched the logic. In this wager, as the volumes were larger, our moderators did their own research to confirm that no forms were really printed (at least not provably so) and resolved as such.
GarySpivey
1:08AM, May 15, 2020 UTC
Also if "distribute" of questionnaire w citizen question can be reasonably interpreted as taking place internally and externally (which i agree with) why not accept both interpretations? Especially in light of the resolution of prior market! Rep said only external distribution of questionnaire counts because its the only one in the spirit of the rules. UNFAIR!
GarySpivey
12:58AM, May 15, 2020 UTC
Rep then said use of "distribute" was debatable bc could reference internal or external distribution. But rules also confirm Yes wins if "confirmed that questionnaire was mistakenly PRINTED/distributed...or if efforts are made to mitigate... PRINTING/distribution error." Thats exactly what happened and = spirit of rules- https://www.npr.org/2019/08/09/749865233/citizenship-question-to-be-removed-from-2020-census-in-u-s-territories
GarySpivey
12:42AM, May 15, 2020 UTC
I hosted this bet. The rep told me that this bet was resolved for No, in part, because the confirmation I gave showing Census form was printed with Citizenship Question was Census Bureau's June status report BEFORE reated this proposition. Only problem is that the Census Bureau's June status report WAS NOT first published in June (obv - it details what Census Bureau did in June). It was published in August after I created this proposition. Unfair!
d_d
12:02AM, May 14, 2020 UTC
if the previous bet was resolved incorrectly all the bets placed here after Jan 1. are invalid or made after the fact...
d_d
11:55PM, May 13, 2020 UTC
@Avalon I reported the previous bet where I placed my bet on NO. The host provided some proof. I placed BTC on YES here. So I've lost twice on basically the same prop choosing two different options! This can't be the case...this bet should be cancelled, imo.
Avalon
8:59PM, May 13, 2020 UTC
The previous proposition was also resolved incorrectly, however, was not reported by any bettor so no further research or action was taken.
werewolf
9:19PM, May 8, 2020 UTC
@Avalon The same bet was resolved as YES several months ago.
https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-2020-census-include-citizenship-question-by-jan-1-4564
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