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Will 2020 Census include Citizenship Question by Jan 1?

Will 2020 Census include Citizenship Question by Jan 1?
Category:
Politics
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Description

If questionnaires with a Citizenship Question have been printed or distributed for the 2020 Census prior to Jan 1, 2020, this bet resolves in favor of Yes. Otherwise, if a questionnaires with a Citizenship Question have not been printed and/or distributed for the 2020 Census by Jan 1, 2020, this bet resolves in favor of No. Early resolution possible.

Decision Logic

Yes wins bet if, prior to Jan 1, 2020, it is publicly confirmed (in manner that can be reasonably verified/corroborated) that at least one questionnaire was printed for use in the 2020 Census (i.e. to conduct the decennial census population counts of the 50 states, Puerto Rico, and/or US Island Areas) that contained a question asking if respondent is a citizen of the US ("Citizen Question"). This Market resolves for Yes even if such questionnaire(s) were printed or sent for the 2020 Census by mistake.

Only questionnaires that were printed to conduct the 2020 Census population counts of the US/US territories can resolve this bet for Yes. The 2019 Census Test will not resolve this bet for Yes. Early resolution possible.

CLOSING IN2020-01-01 10:00:00

4:46AM, Aug 6, 2019 UTC

10:00AM, Jan 1, 2020 UTC

10:41PM, Jan 1, 2020 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 3:24AM, Jan 2, 2020 UTC

Total Volume: 0.0283

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "Yes"

0.02825382 was split between 1 bettors.
YES
Volume:0.0102
0.33887526
# of Bets:1
NO
Volume:0.0181
0.54033492
# of Bets:3

Discussion

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Avalon 6:47AM, Jan 4, 2020 UTC
Although American Samoa had a citizenship question in the past, we believe for the purpose of this prop, the fact they continue to have it satisfies the logic as written due to some political contention this year. Thank you for supporting documentation, @GarySpivey
GarySpivey 11:58PM, Jan 3, 2020 UTC
@Avalon, please note that I have sent supporting documentation to [email protected]
GarySpivey 4:20PM, Jan 3, 2020 UTC
@Avalon. I will send you all the documentation supporting Yes resolution later today.
GarySpivey 4:18PM, Jan 3, 2020 UTC
Island Area census is part of the 2020 census. It includes American Samoa, Guam, Virgin Islands, and Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands. All of the Island Area census forms included a citizenship question. Page 11 of this report confirms that they were printed. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/program-management/monthly-status-reports/2019-06-msr.pdf
Avalon 4:12PM, Jan 3, 2020 UTC
Hey @GarySpivey - we've received your request to offer additional information. Please either use pastebin.com or send it to our team at support[at]betmoose.com
d_d 10:11PM, Jan 2, 2020 UTC
I see... Were they actually printed?
GarySpivey 4:40PM, Jan 2, 2020 UTC
Page 45 - https://reginfo.gov/public/do/DownloadDocument?objectID=94534300 Question 11 - https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/DownloadDocument?objectID=88429701 Page 11 - https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/program-management/monthly-status-reports/2019-06-msr.pdf
d_d 3:33AM, Jan 2, 2020 UTC
I found no mentions that these questionaries were printed (besides the test ones) https://www.npr.org/2019/12/30/792420857/census-bureau-finds-latinos-asians-sensitive-to-now-blocked-citizenship-question However it was stated that in the decision logic "The 2019 Census Test will not resolve this bet for Yes".

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