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Will a >1MB block be mined before July 2017?

Will a >1MB block be mined before July 2017?


Will a >1MB block be mined on the bitcoin network (with the most hashrate) before July 2017?

Decision Logic

This bet will treat "the bitcoin network" as the chain that has the most hashrate behind it.

If a small miner forks themselves away from the network with the most hashrate, that shall not count for the purposes of this bet.

This bet assumes that the MAX_BLOCK_SIZE constraint will be greater than 1MB by July 2017. Segregated Witness activation shall not be construed to mean >1MB blocks.

This bet will be concluded on July 1st, 2017 at 00:00 GMT.

CLOSING IN2017-06-30 19:00:00

11:43PM, Nov 16, 2016 UTC

7:00PM, Jun 30, 2017 UTC

11:00PM, Jul 1, 2017 UTC

RESOLVED AT 7:16AM, Jul 4, 2017 UTC

Total Volume: 11.44

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "No"

11.4369711 was split between 52 bettors.
# of Bets:15
# of Bets:52


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Avalon 8:56PM, Mar 22, 2017 UTC
@kolotoure77294 We don't forsee an issue where the largest and most powerful fork is not also the most 'valuable' if by valuable you mean in BTC/USD terms. If it's just a powerful fork but cannot be traded or used for exchange, then it's not really a 'successful' fork.
kolotoure77294 6:16PM, Mar 21, 2017 UTC
@DonkeyHotee @BetMoose @Avalon what happens in the case of a controversial hard fork by a majority of miners where the original chain (with <1MB blocks) is the most valuable chain and the forked chain becomes just another altcoin. It could happen, maybe not before July but it's looking more and more likely at some point this year that some kind of controversial fork will happen and the Decision Logic is not clear enough for this scenario.
kolotoure77294 12:07AM, Mar 7, 2017 UTC
@DonkeyHotee 2/2 I think reading the decision logic it is determined on 1st July because it doesn't say it can resolve early and it says "This bet will be concluded on July 1st, 2017 at 00:00 GMT." - Am I right in thinking this bet is determined by the chain with majority hash rate on 1st July and not before?
kolotoure77294 12:00AM, Mar 7, 2017 UTC
When is 'most hashrate' determined? 1 block after the fork, 100 blocks, 2016 blocks (one difficulty period)? - The reason I ask is because a fork allowing bigger blocks could happen with 60% hashpower but the economic majority (nodes, users, exchanges, etc.) could stay on the original chain and ignore the bigger block fork. - The hashpower would quickly abondon the fork and revert to the original chain.

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