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Will a nuclear accident (INES level 4+) occur in 2018?

Will a nuclear accident (INES level 4+) occur in 2018?


The IAEA measures nuclear events on the International Nuclear Event Scale ( Events below 4 on the scale are often referred to as "incidents," while 4 and higher are "accidents." ***ushima got a 7. The highest-rated event in 2017 got a 3. Will 2018 give us something worse than that?

Decision Logic

Data will be taken from the IAEA website ( as of January 8th, 2019 at 12:00 EST. Events that began after December 31st 2018 (11:59pm UTC) will not be included. If the website data is clearly incomplete (an event that occurred is not listed on the website) other reliable sources may be used to determine what rating the IAEA assigns to it. A provisional or final rating of 4 or higher will be accepted for a "Yes" resolution. If no provisional rating has been determined by January 8th, it will get a "No" resolution. Whether the event is accidental or caused by terrorism/war does not affect the outcome, as long as it gets a rating on the INES scale that is accepted by the IAEA.

CLOSING IN2018-12-31 22:30:00

9:35PM, Jan 8, 2018 UTC

10:30PM, Dec 31, 2018 UTC

10:30PM, Jan 8, 2019 UTC

RESOLVED AT 12:28AM, Jan 9, 2019 UTC

Total Volume: 0.0611

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "No"

0.061139 was split between 8 bettors.
# of Bets:2
# of Bets:8


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Mirh 3:00PM, Feb 5, 2018 UTC
Or does yes mean only an accident?
Mirh 3:00PM, Feb 5, 2018 UTC
What about a nuclear "on purpose"?

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