Will Bitcoin hit $50,000 before Dec 2021?

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Description

New bitcoin price bet:
Will Bitcoin hit $50,000 or at least $30,000 before Dec 31 2021? This proposition is leech protected: see decision logic for details!

Decision Logic

"YES" if the price is strictly above $50,000 at any point between now and Dec 31 2021 00:00 UTC, using the Bitstamp exchange as the point of reference. "NO but will reach 30,000" if the price never goes above $50,000 during the time period but is strictly above $30,000 at any point of time. "NO" if the price never goes above $30,000. In case of Bitcoin fork and chain split "Bitcoin" is the most valuable bitcoin chain. If Bitstamp price is unavailable, then Bitfinex price will be used. Early resolution is possible.
Leech protection:
In case of YES outcome: "YES" bets within 30 days of the "YES" outcome will be refunded.
In case if NO outcome: no refunds.

5953

CLOSING IN2021-01-17 12:30:00

3:09PM, Apr 29, 2020 UTC

12:30PM, Jan 17, 2021 UTC

3:35PM, Feb 16, 2021 UTC

Early Outcome

RESOLVED AT 5:25AM, Feb 17, 2021 UTC

Total Volume: 3.206

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "YES"

3.20565211 was split between 46 bettors.

YES

Volume:	1.677
23.76322749
# of Bets:	46

NO but will reach 30,000

Volume:	0.6066
9.04202226
# of Bets:	36

Volume:	0.9219
20.85505513
# of Bets:	36

Related see more from Bitcoin

Discussion

gabbello 1:15PM, Dec 1, 2020 UTC

Also outcome seems to be set for 29th of Dec, which is before the date in the description?

gabbello 1:14PM, Dec 1, 2020 UTC

There is a small issue with how the question is asked, as "before Dec 2021" would actually mean before 1st of Dec 2021 (just like the current bet that ends today for 2020), but the resolution states before Dec 31 2021 00:00 (which BTW is not end of year, but 1 day before), anyway, hope this will not invalidate the bet.

FreedomOfTrade 4:39PM, Nov 30, 2020 UTC

@iddiaci Smart way to encourage counterbets ;) No but seriously, the value cap is the combined market value of all the worlds currencies. I.E if everything is run on BTC. Plus if BTC starts to be a majority used currency in the $ market then the $ will lose it's value and inflate like crazy. Bizarre scenario but that's where we're headed, unless the banks use government tyranny to protect the $. (Spoiler alert) They will. Question is just; When? A $400k/BTC ≈ $8 Trillion market. You decide.

iddiaci 7:49AM, Nov 27, 2020 UTC

Yes, there is something you're missing. It can't keep 20x in every few years forever. The trend HAS TO slow down or if this happens once every 2 years, in 18 years, 1 btc will be=$1 Quintillion. If you agree with me that this is absurd and that the trend must slow down, then you would have no reason to think it won't be slowing down this time. So maybe btc won't "reach ~400k in a couple of months or so".

FreedomOfTrade 7:27PM, Nov 25, 2020 UTC

Maybe I shouldn't say this but logically speaking it should reach ~400k$ in a couple of months or so. The only trend I've been able to find BTC price to consistently follow since 2009 or so is that it explodes, goes down 60% over a long period(~6m - 2y), goes back at the same pace and then once it reaches all time high again it explodes 20 fold. Last time was 20k$ and we're at ~19.5k$. 20x20k$=400k$. Is there something I'm missing? Normies & Media always go wild at all time highs.

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