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Will Courts Overturn the 2020 Presidential Election?
Will Courts Overturn the 2020 Presidential Election?
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Description
Joe Biden has been declared president elect by the media. He has won PA, it looks like he won GA, and other swing states. Do you think the courts will reverse vote counts to the point that Donald Trump remains president?
Decision Logic
Currently Joe Biden is the presumptive President-Elect. If through decisions by courts, the vote counts get changed to the degree that Donald Trump actually wins the presidency by flipping enough previously called states... then YES will win.
If Joe Biden remains the president elect then NO wins.
This will be called December 14th or when there is no further pathway for court cases to reverse the race.
CLOSING IN2020-11-21 08:00:00
6:27PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
8:00AM, Nov 21, 2020 UTC
8:00AM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
RESOLVED AT 2:04PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
Total Volume: 2.897
This bet has been resolved!
The outcome was "No"
2.89668454 was split between 55 bettors.
YES
| Volume: | 0.4764 |
| # of Bets: | 23 |
NO
| Volume: | 2.420 |
| # of Bets: | 55 |
Discussion
praine
10:08AM, Dec 13, 2020 UTC
Oops, wrong bet.
praine
10:08AM, Dec 13, 2020 UTC
https://www.thefreedictionary.com/non+sequitur
TeamColtra
4:33PM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
@Andyzzle Wisconsin doesn't have enough electors to swing the election.
As to the other filling, it still does not have enough states to overturn the election. Plus, i believe that's already been ruled on and rejected, I'm trying to find any source that shows them refiling after the court said they would refuse to hear the case.
I know many people are skeptical of "mainstream media" so I'm checking Breitbart, the Wikipedia page for the filing, etc.
I just don't see it
TeamColtra
4:24PM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
I want to be very clear that i take my role as bookmaker to be more important than my political leaning. It's more important that people trust me to make fair decisions, than focus on a world where my guy won (for the record, "my guy" didn't. I think Biden is awful)
I do have to balance ending the bet when i say i will to making sure i have all the facts. I think in this case, the Supreme Court is not going to make it's most controversial and big decision it's ever made over one weekend.
TeamColtra
4:18PM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
The problem with these lawsuits is they don't actually challenge enough electors to change the outcome of the election. They all focus on these 5 states. If the SC says there was shenanigans so we will invalidate these states electors: Biden still wins.
Andyzzle
11:55AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
Texas refiled it seems:
https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/22/22O155/163498/20201211111125165_TX-v-State-MPI-Reply-2020-12-11.pdf
Andyzzle
8:49AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
...and election fraud on being back on the menu, if they can prove it in one state that used Dominion machines, they would still have a pathway by sueing before Scotus and argueing that the same case could be made for other contested states. Chances of that actually happening are slim though. I'm curious to see what happens on the 14th and how or if electors will vote. But I agree with you, if they do something then that's beyond the scope of this bet.
Andyzzle
8:43AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
Supreme Court in Wisconsin also just agreed to hear out the Trump Team's lawsuit and they'll probably make the decision by Dec 14th anyway. It is my understanding that Scotus rejected the Texas lawsuit out of refusal to set precedence for States to be able to sue other states for the way they conduct elections and decide election laws (but i might be wrong on that). While I agree with you that there's probably very little chance of courts overturning this, due to the nature of the lawsuit...
Andyzzle
8:29AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
@TeamColtra there's still lawsuits being filed. Powell just filed for Arizona.
TeamColtra
7:13AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
I see no further pathway for COURTS to change the election. If the electoral college gets up to something that's not within the realm of this bet. As such I'm requesting the bet is closed on favour of "NO".
Of course everyone is entitled to dispute this with BetMoose and if I was betting on THAT I would guess you will.
betterment
6:10AM, Dec 12, 2020 UTC
SC has rejected the lawsuit. So there "is no further pathway for court cases to reverse the race."
Andyzzle
9:39PM, Dec 11, 2020 UTC
@atmosphere Not yet, it's my understanding that Scotus needs to vote on whether they pick up the case first. They need four Justices to agree and then it's accepted. Texas has filed, the four states have responded and Scotus needs to make a decision now. Decision could come in any day now.
atmosphere
2:31PM, Dec 11, 2020 UTC
@Andyzzle -- The case is already on the docket. It has been accepted.
Andyzzle
8:41AM, Dec 10, 2020 UTC
@TramColtra I can't imagine Scotus not taking up the case to be honest. There's 19 States that joined in on the lawsuit already and Trump is piling on as well. It's not about fraud anymore but rather about the new election laws in those states being unconstitutional, which should be much easier to prove.
I don't think we'll have the bet resolved by Dec 14th but we'll have to wait and see.
betterment
5:48AM, Dec 10, 2020 UTC
@TeamColtra when will it be known that the court has refused to hear it?
TeamColtra
3:10AM, Dec 10, 2020 UTC
I'm watching the outcome of this https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-gop-loyalists-seek-pile-supreme-court-election/story?id=74636127
If the supreme court refuses to hear it, this is pretty much the last chance and the last legitimate effort in court to overturn the election.
Andyzzle
10:53PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
@TeamColtra Okay, I'm fine with that. We're on the same page then. I just read that Justice Alito moved the date up by one day so that they can decide on picking the case up before the safe harbour deadline. It *might* still get interesting.
TeamColtra
9:14PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
If the Supreme Court takes this case I'll obviously extend it out for them to do their job.
TeamColtra
9:13PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
There currently is no pathway for victory, @Andyzzle. Various member's of Trump's own team has already said this. I'm going to hold out probably until the 14th anyway, because I think that's fair... but I likely wont hold this longer than the 14th. There are no current pathways to victory. There is a petition to the Supreme Court but the date is after Safe Harbour ends. I'll watch that case, because it's honestly the last hope for the Trump side to win this.
Andyzzle
5:35PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
www.betmoose.com/bet/trump-wins-one-of-pa-nv-az-mi-wi-or-ga-5215
^This bet is an example with specific "by date" restriction. Yours doesn't have that though so I'd expect and ask you to wait until it really is clear without any doubt out of fairness to everybody who put their money down. If Biden still pulls out ahead then nothing changes and everybody gets their winnings anyway. Whether that's now or in January doesn't matter. A bet is a bet.
Andyzzle
5:28PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
The election has been more chaotic/irregular than any of us would've guessed a month ago and nobody can predict what will happen next. I don't know how court cases will turn out or if Scotus makes a move. But we bet on courts reversing the decision, not on it happening before Dec. 14th specifically ("or when there is no further pathway..."). Bitcoin peaking shouldn't matter because funds being locked is a risk you take when you place the bet. Correct resolution of the bet should be prioritized.
TeamColtra
3:36PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
@Andyzzle if you can find me any open court cases that can flip the election I'm all ears. I've been watching closely and haven't seen any.
TeamColtra
3:33PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
I would call this now, honestly. However, i know BetMoose would make it wait. I will close this on the 14th though as there are no court cases left that would turn the tides, the AG has already said they have found no evidence of election fraud. Everything has been ratified.
I know Bitcoin is peaking but this isn't really up to me.
Andyzzle
3:04PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
@vegai why so hostile? Calm down and be civil.
The decision logic is clear. "This will be called on Dec 14th" is not the same as "it needs to happen by Dec 14th". Especially not when combined with the second sentence stating "or when there is no further pathway for court cases". If court cases taken longer then they take longer and the deadline should be adjusted. The bets marked as "extended" are for people that still want to bet on the outcome (since this bet has already closed).
vegai
1:26PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
@TeamColtra please don't extend the outcome a single second. Delusional people can pour money into the markets that are clearly marked as "extended".
Andyzzle
1:14PM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
@TeamColtra can you extend the outcome date on this bet? It looks like court proceedings will take longer and the decision logic doesn't say it has to happen by Dec 14th, just that it's going to be called that day or when there's no further pathways to reverse the race. Currently it looks like further pathways will extend past that date.
TeamColtra
12:29AM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
@praine thank you very much. Feel free to give me more money here: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-courts-reverse-2020-presidential-election-extended-5242#bets-1
:P
praine
12:25AM, Nov 22, 2020 UTC
This has turned out to be a pretty nice bet for you, given that you started it out with just .005 BTC :D.
TeamColtra
5:49PM, Nov 21, 2020 UTC
That's it for betting, let's see what happens for the next 22 days. Good luck to everyone.
TeamColtra
5:49PM, Nov 21, 2020 UTC
That's it for betting, let's see what happens for the next 22 days. Good luck to everyone.
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