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Will Donald Trump be a dictator?

Will Donald Trump be a dictator?
Category:
Politics
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Description

Donald Trump has stated that the US Constitution can be terminated, floated the idea of being "President for Life," and stated he would be a dictator "on day one" if re-elected. Will he follow through?

This bet focuses on whether Trump declares a state of emergency to consolidate power and the ensuing battle over its legitimacy: will Congress act to cancel it, will he veto their cancellation, and can Congress muster a veto override?

Decision Logic

"Emergency Declared" occurs if Trump declares a national emergency by December 31, 2025.

"Congress Cancels" occurs if Congress votes to cancel the emergency by a simple majority.

"Trump Vetoes" occurs if Trump vetoes the cancellation.

"Congress Overrides" occurs if Congress overrides the veto with a 2/3 majority.

"None of the Above" occurs if no other outcomes are met by December 31, 2025.

Resolution will rely on official documentation and reputable outlets such as AP, Reuters, Politico, White House announcements, and Congressional records.

CLOSING IN2025-12-31 05:00:00

3:02AM, Jan 10, 2025 UTC

5:00AM, Dec 31, 2025 UTC

5:00AM, Jan 9, 2026 UTC

30.860xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier

Total Volume: 0.0200

Emergency Declared
Volume: 0.0137
0.5448395
# of Bets: 6
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Congress Cancels
Volume: 0.0000
0
# of Bets: 0
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Trump Vetoes
Volume: 0.0000
0
# of Bets: 0
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Congress Overrides
Volume: 0.0000
0
# of Bets: 0
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

None of the Above
Volume: 0.0063
0.2614735
# of Bets: 4
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Discussion

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f84jf85hg7g 12:39AM, Mar 2, 2025 UTC
@patatosaure Yes, anything that uses the National Emergencies Act to gain powers not granted in the Constitution counts. That condition has already happened: "I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States of America, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including … the National Emergencies Act…"
patatosaure 10:08PM, Feb 24, 2025 UTC
@f84jf85hg7g, would be useful to clarify what exactly counts as an emergency. According to this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_national_emergencies_in_the_United_States, you have currently 44 national emergencies in effect in the US, and I'm not sure you can, for instance, count the "Imposing Certain Sanctions on Persons Undermining Peace, Security, and Stability in the West Bank" as Trump assuming emergency power to usher an era of dictatorship
f84jf85hg7g 12:03AM, Feb 5, 2025 UTC
@Avalon If an emergency is declared and not cancelled, it resolves to "Emergency Declared". If an emergency is declared and cancelled, but not vetoed, then it resolves to "Congress Cancels", etc. Whichever most extreme scenario happens is the outcome. It wouldn't make sense for "which one happens first" to be the outcome, since 3 out of 5 outcomes would be impossible to reach. You can't cancel an emergency before it's declared, etc.
Avalon 7:45PM, Jan 27, 2025 UTC
@f84jf85hg7g - we're having trouble understanding the logic here as well. The proposition can only have one outcome, so are bettors expected to pick which one happens first (since Jan 9, 2025)?
SpinningBall 5:08AM, Jan 25, 2025 UTC
Thanks for the clarification.
f84jf85hg7g 3:40AM, Jan 25, 2025 UTC
I don't see any problem with the logic. "Trump declares a national emergency" does not preclude declaring multiple emergencies. "Congress votes to cancel the emergency" is true if they cancel any of them. "Trump vetoes the cancellation" only applies after one has been cancelled, etc.
AndrewL 4:50PM, Jan 23, 2025 UTC
Two were already declared. Which one are we betting on now?
AndrewL 2:50PM, Jan 22, 2025 UTC
A National Emergency was declared on day one. This bet logic isn't coherant either. Trump will likely declare more than one, and if there is an emeegency six months from now and it's cancelled, then we have a confliction with the logic.
SpinningBall 7:58AM, Jan 22, 2025 UTC
With a fully republican congress, they should have no reason to cancel this.
SpinningBall 7:58AM, Jan 22, 2025 UTC
"Emergency Declared" occurs if Trump declares a national emergency by December 31, 2025.
SpinningBall 7:57AM, Jan 22, 2025 UTC
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/declaring-a-national-emergency-at-the-southern-border-of-the-united-states/

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