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Will Donald Trump be a dictator?

Will Donald Trump be a dictator?
Category:
Politics
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Description

Donald Trump has stated that the US Constitution can be terminated, floated the idea of being "President for Life," and stated he would be a dictator "on day one" if re-elected. Will he follow through?

This bet focuses on whether Trump declares a state of emergency to consolidate power and the ensuing battle over its legitimacy: will Congress act to cancel it, will he veto their cancellation, and can Congress muster a veto override?

Decision Logic

"Emergency Declared" occurs if Trump declares a national emergency by December 31, 2025.

"Congress Cancels" occurs if Congress votes to cancel the emergency by a simple majority.

"Trump Vetoes" occurs if Trump vetoes the cancellation.

"Congress Overrides" occurs if Congress overrides the veto with a 2/3 majority.

"None of the Above" occurs if no other outcomes are met by December 31, 2025.

Resolution will rely on official documentation and reputable outlets such as AP, Reuters, Politico, White House announcements, and Congressional records.

CLOSING IN2025-12-31 05:00:00

3:02AM, Jan 10, 2025 UTC

5:00AM, Dec 31, 2025 UTC

5:00AM, Jan 9, 2026 UTC

41.905xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier

Total Volume: 0.0147

Emergency Declared
Volume: 0.0096
0.405276
# of Bets: 4
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Congress Cancels
Volume: 0.0000
0
# of Bets: 0
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Trump Vetoes
Volume: 0.0000
0
# of Bets: 0
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Congress Overrides
Volume: 0.0000
0
# of Bets: 0
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

None of the Above
Volume: 0.0051
0.2151495
# of Bets: 2
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Discussion

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AndrewL 4:50PM, Jan 23, 2025 UTC
Two were already declared. Which one are we betting on now?
AndrewL 2:50PM, Jan 22, 2025 UTC
A National Emergency was declared on day one. This bet logic isn't coherant either. Trump will likely declare more than one, and if there is an emeegency six months from now and it's cancelled, then we have a confliction with the logic.
SpinningBall 7:58AM, Jan 22, 2025 UTC
With a fully republican congress, they should have no reason to cancel this.
SpinningBall 7:58AM, Jan 22, 2025 UTC
"Emergency Declared" occurs if Trump declares a national emergency by December 31, 2025.
SpinningBall 7:57AM, Jan 22, 2025 UTC
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/declaring-a-national-emergency-at-the-southern-border-of-the-united-states/

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