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Will Donald Trump be elected president in 2020?

Will Donald Trump be elected president in 2020?
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Politics
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Description

Will Donald Trump win re-election in 2020 to remain president

Decision Logic

Betting on YES means that you believe Donald Trump will win re-election in 2020

Betting on NO means he was unable to win for any reason which would include any, but not limited to, the following examples:

  • Being challenged and losing during the primaries
  • Resigning from or being removed from the presidency
  • Losing the general election in 2020
  • Death

    Early resolution is possible

15773
CLOSING IN2020-01-05 00:50:00

11:57PM, Jan 4, 2019 UTC

12:50AM, Jan 5, 2020 UTC

11:45PM, Nov 4, 2020 UTC

RESOLVED AT 4:33PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC

Total Volume: 12.93

This bet has been resolved!

The outcome was "No"

12.93370588 was split between 46 bettors.
YES
Volume:6.443
176.88427968
# of Bets:74
NO
Volume:6.491
173.71550507
# of Bets:46

Discussion

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jbperez808 6:01PM, Dec 21, 2020 UTC
Hi @rostrander I placed an anonymous bet but the winning amount does not seem to have been returned to the originating address, can you help me with this?
jbperez808 6:00PM, Dec 21, 2020 UTC
Hi @Avalon I placed an anonymous bet but the winning amount does not seem to have been returned to the originating address, can you help me with this?
PoorSnowflake 4:40PM, Dec 20, 2020 UTC
@Pheenixm I would just like to thank you for your bitcoin... I spent a good chunk of 2019 reeling in suckers like you to place bets and give me incredible odds. You are a special kind of stupid... Please continue to bet on trump remaining president in 2021... I will be on the other side of that trade. I have to go on a shopping spree now with your money... thanks homie
Pheenixm 11:05PM, Dec 16, 2020 UTC
@PoorSnowflake imagine being so salty you create an account to antagonize people! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA Trump is going to win and you're only going to be able to cry. And I'm going to get my $300 because @Avalon knows what a ***** bad press is for a small business
PoorSnowflake 2:52AM, Dec 15, 2020 UTC
@Pheenixm. Joe Biden is going to be your president. I created this account if you want it because you are such an annoying poor little snowflake... trump remaining in office wouldn't mean that he was elected. It would have meant there was a successful coup, but he, like his supporters are kinda terrible at litigation... you're going to sue? how american/trumpanzeean of you... so typical... not sure if you get understand how bitcoin works. lol... sore loser
Pheenixm 1:54AM, Dec 15, 2020 UTC
My only stance is that if Donald Trump remains in the White House on January 21st, I expect that this bet will be resolved in my favor and MY bitcoin paid to me.
Pheenixm 1:52AM, Dec 15, 2020 UTC
Of course, if @Avalon does the smart thing and chooses to defer payment of this bet to January, thus keeping a consistent stance on bets of this type, he isn't showing a double standard and opening himself up to this sort of litigation. What's more, if he's willing to pay me out of pocket if/when this is resolved in my favor, I genuinely don't care.
Pheenixm 1:51AM, Dec 15, 2020 UTC
@Glider Yeah, filing a claim in small claims in free in America. If and when I discover that I have been cheated of my money, I will file a claim. If Betmoose chooses to fly down to answer it in person, as is legally required, they can fight it. Otherwise, I win by default. $300 is more than worth the $50 filing fee.
Glider 10:36PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
@Pheenixm You are delusional dude. This proposition is soooo over. "If blah blah blah...I am not properly compensated, I will pursue all legal options...blah blah blah" You are a case of "The smallest dog bark the loudest" So you're going to pursue legal options for the $300 you lost? lol... not likely son... That is all. Move along now. scurry on
Glider 10:31PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
Thanks @Avalon You've done a good job with this one
Pheenixm 9:46PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
@Avalon https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/20-799.html If and when Donald Trump is certified as the winner of the 2020 election, he will have technically been elected in 2020. At that point, I assume you will be compensating everyone who bet on him out-of-pocket? If that eventuality comes to pass, and I am not properly compensated, I will pursue all legal options available to me.
golgotha 7:53PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
The States can certify all they want but ultimately it's Congress that decides if the electors are valid and certified. If you want to stay technical in the wording, that Trump needs to be "elected" in the year "2020", then that's OK by me. However, we still have over 2 weeks before the end of 2020 and anything can happen in that time. We've waited so long here, can we not wait 2.5 more weeks? Why the hurry? Let's get this right.
Avalon 7:09PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
We are closing this particular in agreement with the host. 1. Safe harbour deadline has passed. 2. All states have certified final votes. 3. Any court challenges and/or de-certifications will occur beyond 2020. There is no time left in 2020 for Trump to be officially "elected" as President. Even if a pending case is agreed to be heard in a court, it will need to go to SCOTUS to change the outcome, which can't happen in the next 2 weeks.
golgotha 6:03PM, Dec 14, 2020 UTC
Looks like the states have sent their electors to Congress today but nothing is certified yet. Now we're just waiting for the VP to strike the gavel on Jan 6 certifying the electors and this bet can be settled.
vegai 11:44AM, Dec 6, 2020 UTC
Biden has now officially secured enough electors to become president. Settle this bet already!
MooseMe 8:05PM, Dec 1, 2020 UTC
@golgotha Trump's legal team's been kinda confused and disoriented lately as they try to spin the logic for reversing the Biden/Harris win. They could use you on their team.
vegai 9:45AM, Dec 1, 2020 UTC
Yeah, it makes sense to be absolutely sure. Still, the decision logic is stretching quite a bit. It's getting close to being interpreted as "Donald Trump stops the US from being a democracy, instigates a civil war and wins it" ;)
golgotha 1:50AM, Dec 1, 2020 UTC
We need to wait a little more. It's better to be patient then resolving early and making a mistake. Some of us have over 1 bitcoin on this bet. Electors from all 50 states will meet on December 14 to place their official votes for their states. On January 6, that vote count is finalized and election results are certified. This bet shouldn't be resolved prior to January 6th, unless Trump officially concedes.
vegai 12:21PM, Nov 29, 2020 UTC
Yep. Also the >60BTC bet was already paid out correctly, so obviously somebody in the mod team agrees how reality works :) I hope Betmoose is solvent...
MooseMe 2:31PM, Nov 28, 2020 UTC
@vegai Agree. All but the raging-pro-Trump legal analysts are telling us that at this time the chance of a Trump win are micro-micro-micro-remote at best. This holdup of payout is causing me bunches of problems. It's time for this bet to get resolved as a Biden win.
vegai 12:12PM, Nov 25, 2020 UTC
White House has signed off on the president-elect Joe Biden getting the Presidential Daily briefs. Could you finally settle this already? There are so many other juicy markets going on just now, it's bit of a pain to see funds get stuck on this one.
MooseMe 3:32AM, Nov 17, 2020 UTC
Ha! " ... turbulence." The entertainment here is worth more than the BTC I'll win when it's resolved that Biden won fairly and squarely. Unhappy? How about doing a Trump bet where the result yes or no can't become uncertain? "Will Trump Ever Set a Foot in the White House After He Leaves for His Mar-a-Lago Vacation? " -- This bet will be a posted in a few minutes.
PoorSnowflake 4:16AM, Nov 12, 2020 UTC
It should also be noted in the decision logic that Biden doesn't need to be declared the winner of the election. This proposition is solely focused on whether Trump was able to win re-election. If neither candidate has 270 electoral votes, this proposition would have an outcome of NO since only trump is required to reach 270 according to the logic of this proposition.
PoorSnowflake 11:43PM, Nov 9, 2020 UTC
Just to be clear, the title says "Will Donald Trump be elected president in 2020?" It doesn't say Will Trump litigate his way through courts that he stacked to become president. The outcome of this proposition should be settled. The voting done by the electors on December 15th is nothing more than a formality
BHenry2072 10:56PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
Alright, I was just popping in to see if this bet was being held open until the actual winner was certified, looks like you guys have this well in hand
protus 1:51PM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
I totally agree. Wait on resolving this. This is not a done deal. It's headed to SCOTUS
Lugal 8:44AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
That's fair and levelheaded.
golgotha 1:29AM, Nov 8, 2020 UTC
Thanks Avalon for the update. Please let's not be hasty in resolving this. If vote counts are contested in any state, or if recounts are in process, or there is litigation preventing vote counts in any state from becoming official, then this bet must remain unresolved. We must wait for Congress to officially declare that all recounts and pending litigation is resolved and that there is a clear, uncontested winner that will take office on Jan 20. Only then can this bet be resolved.
Avalon 10:49PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
Hello everyone - please remain calm as we are not planning on settling these outcomes just yet due to all the turbulence. These props can stay open for another week or so until the count is fully complete and a more certain picture is visible. As others have said, the recounts and legal challenges are moot if Biden is confirmed in AZ, NV, and GA so we expect to resolve this sooner than Jan 20th regardless. Note also that Trump conceding is irrelevant to whether he won/lost the election.
mrksdiehl 8:55PM, Nov 7, 2020 UTC
This bet can not be resolved like this. In a contested election, we have to actually wait for electoral vote or if one party concedes! Everything else is unacceptable!

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