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Will Donald Trump be President in June 2021-BEST

Will Donald Trump be President in June 2021-BEST
Category:
Politics
By
NqKe
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Description

That is simple. MOST other bets about Trump are bad because unclear. Let's say Trump uses the military to remain President because of some proof that courts refuse, how will the other bets deal with it? Did he win the Election then? Hard to say. So this is about him remaining in power, wether people agree or not.
 

YES: Trump is in power, wether he is contested or not isn't relevant. As long as he got power, it's considered a YES, even if Biden claims he is the President.
NO: Trump left and returned to "normal" life. Biden is in office and ruling the country.

Decision Logic

This bet makes it way easier and clear than other bets. If Trump is President of the United States of America on June first, 2021... you either win or lose.

CLOSING IN2021-05-30 22:00:00

6:17PM, Dec 13, 2020 UTC

10:00PM, May 30, 2021 UTC

10:00AM, Jun 1, 2021 UTC

11.560xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier

Total Volume: 17.93

YES
Volume: 1.183
20.31705512
# of Bets: 40
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

NO
Volume: 16.75
273.19334239
# of Bets: 112
Payout
ROI
0.00
0%

*assumes current weight and volumes

Discussion

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betterment 10:43AM, Feb 21, 2021 UTC
@f84jf85hg7g I think so.
f84jf85hg7g 11:50PM, Feb 18, 2021 UTC
@tiffegut Are you counting on this? https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-trump-be-inaugurated-president-on-march-4th-5498
f84jf85hg7g 11:47PM, Feb 18, 2021 UTC
If Trump dies of a heart attack, will this bet stay open, just in case of a miraculous resurrection?
cryptoman 7:24AM, Feb 17, 2021 UTC
@tiffegut . Thank you. You kind donation is truly appreciated.
jagsbeach 3:37PM, Feb 14, 2021 UTC
Unless Mike Lindell drops a bomb, true on the 5c. But lucky for us it's satoshis not cents. I love HodlMoose.
f84jf85hg7g 5:11PM, Feb 12, 2021 UTC
Looking forward to making 5 cents profit on this bet.
d_d 6:28PM, Feb 4, 2021 UTC
William Henry Harrison, elected in 1840. Harrison caught a cold at his inauguration and died of pneumonia a month later. https://www.scholastic.com/teachers/articles/teaching-content/white-house-curse/
McBryde 3:41PM, Feb 3, 2021 UTC
@Avalon: "...Title updated with the word 'still' removed to be consistent with the rest of the prop." that's clearer, but as the description says "..So this is about him remaining in power", it still causes confusion. Later, though, the bet is clarified, in that NqKe states in clear black and white terms the qualification for YES and NO. I think it's pretty clear from that that the word 'remaining' is pretty loose, and really implies that he bets there will be no overall change. If Trump wasn
cryptoman 10:45AM, Jan 25, 2021 UTC
https://www.b i t c h ute.com/video/BVRCyEOAH5ex/
cryptoman 10:44AM, Jan 25, 2021 UTC
Looks like the Trump side is running out of gas. I just spoke to a colleague of mine, a true Qanon nutjob that said that Biden's inauguration was a fake and that Trump will be back on 4th March. He even provided a source for such claims: https://www.*****ute.com/video/BVRCyEOAH5ex/ Don't trust the mass media, you know they always lie, right? ;-) Trump will be back. Have faith. @sortino , @brad3 , @PaP and all MAGA people : don't let me down.
betterment 3:34AM, Jan 25, 2021 UTC
Anyone got contact information of @NqKe ?
Avalon 7:16AM, Jan 23, 2021 UTC
@betterment I said the exactly the same thing. We only look at title/descriptions/comments if there are inconsistencies between the logic and timeline, which here there are none. There were multiple other props which were set to resolve post-inauguration.
cryptoman 5:13PM, Jan 22, 2021 UTC
@kazanecki @brad3 , please spread the word in all the alternative truths sites & forums . This is a great opportunity to make a metric ton of money.
cryptoman 5:10PM, Jan 22, 2021 UTC
4 more years! :-D
f84jf85hg7g 4:19PM, Jan 22, 2021 UTC
So after we've bet, you change the title?? :( Now our money's tied up until June and the bet will get diluted to nothing, since the outcome is already known. @praine "This bet said nothing that Trump had to be in power the entire time to pass as 'Yes'." It asked if Trump will "still be President" and says it "is about him remaining in power". He is no longer in power, so the bet should resolve early to "No". It is not possible to "remain in power" if you are no longer in power.
PaP 2:16PM, Jan 22, 2021 UTC
@praine You explained from a neutral point of view, so it was objective and beautiful. Well done!
praine 11:20PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
Also, the decision logic and timeline make it pretty clear as to how it should be resolved. You guys are doing the opposite of what the MAGA guys are doing. Instead of trying to move the goalposts forward (ad infinitum), you are trying to cut the bet short.
praine 11:17PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
This bet said nothing that Trump had to be in power the entire time to pass as 'Yes'. As I said, this would resolve right after the inauguration if that had any bearing on the resolution. The 'still' that was once there was in relation to the fact that Trump was president at the time this bet was created, so even if he loses and regains power, he is 'still' the president when the bet resolves, despite the journey involved.
betterment 7:32PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
@Avalon And the title before you changed it as well as the description were enough to solve any potential inconsistencies to several other users and me.
betterment 7:30PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
@Avalon But you said an opposite thing to that here: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/trump-elected-president-in-2020-extended-betting-5177?comments=10 "As a general update; comments are irrelevant to our resolution process. We look primarily at the decision logic and timeline. If there are inconsistencies, we refer to the title and bet description (noting any edits (if any)). "
nsob 5:36PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
I think that the bet's intent was to see if Trump managed to stay in power for the full period Jan-Jun. If Trump managed to prevent Biden to be inaugurated, then Biden's side would have to try to revert this until June (for the sake of this bet). Yes would win if Trump was able to maintain power all this time. It happens that he did not.
Avalon 5:35PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
Title updated with the word 'still' removed to be consistent with the rest of the prop.
Avalon 5:30PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
We do not refer to the description to settle or early-close bets. We look at the decision logic and timeline - those are consistent with the idea that the host would like this open until Jun 1st. In addition, you still have users betting on Yes - this bet is whether Trump will regain power or otherwise be president on June 1st with no possible early resolutions.
jagsbeach 4:57PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
The description was clear about the timeline and open to wildly out of the norm scenarios. I’m expecting it’s still fair to dilute one side and shoot alien invasion odds on the other. Not my call tho.
f84jf85hg7g 2:20PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
@betterment The description says "still be President" and "remaining in power", so there's no ambiguity. He is no longer President and no longer in power, so even if he somehow took power in the future, the bet still resolved NO at the moment of inauguration.
f84jf85hg7g 2:15PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
Aren't any post-inauguration bets invalid? FAQ says "Any bets placed after the outcome was known will be cut off and refunded."
AHamilton 11:03AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
@betterment. Correct. Thought of that after I posted. We just locked up our money for no reason...
betterment 7:41AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
@AHamilton This is going to get diluted to like 3% lol.
AHamilton 7:27AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
Admittedly, when I put the money down, I knew it was a bet not about Trump, but about whether the creator would try to resolve it earlier given the ambiguity. Congrats @praine on piling in late to get a 10% risk-free interest rate.
betterment 7:04AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
@Avalon There's a difference between staying in power until June 1st and seizing power between Jan 21st and June 1st until June 1st. It's a bit of a shame it's not possible to even message the creator of a bet to give his input on this ambiguity.

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