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Will Donald Trump be President in June 2021-BEST
Will Donald Trump be President in June 2021-BEST
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Description
That is simple. MOST other bets about Trump are bad because unclear. Let's say Trump uses the military to remain President because of some proof that courts refuse, how will the other bets deal with it? Did he win the Election then? Hard to say. So this is about him remaining in power, wether people agree or not.
YES: Trump is in power, wether he is contested or not isn't relevant. As long as he got power, it's considered a YES, even if Biden claims he is the President.
NO: Trump left and returned to "normal" life. Biden is in office and ruling the country.
Decision Logic
This bet makes it way easier and clear than other bets. If Trump is President of the United States of America on June first, 2021... you either win or lose.
CLOSING IN2021-05-30 22:00:00
6:17PM, Dec 13, 2020 UTC
10:00PM, May 30, 2021 UTC
10:00AM, Jun 1, 2021 UTC
16.115xCurrent Time-Weight Multiplier
Total Volume: 9.786
Discussion
pommy963
12:06AM, Jan 24, 2021 UTC
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Avalon
7:16AM, Jan 23, 2021 UTC
@betterment I said the exactly the same thing. We only look at title/descriptions/comments if there are inconsistencies between the logic and timeline, which here there are none. There were multiple other props which were set to resolve post-inauguration.
cryptoman
5:13PM, Jan 22, 2021 UTC
@kazanecki @brad3 , please spread the word in all the alternative truths sites & forums . This is a great opportunity to make a metric ton of money.
cryptoman
5:10PM, Jan 22, 2021 UTC
4 more years! :-D
f84jf85hg7g
4:19PM, Jan 22, 2021 UTC
So after we've bet, you change the title?? :( Now our money's tied up until June and the bet will get diluted to nothing, since the outcome is already known.
@praine "This bet said nothing that Trump had to be in power the entire time to pass as 'Yes'."
It asked if Trump will "still be President" and says it "is about him remaining in power". He is no longer in power, so the bet should resolve early to "No". It is not possible to "remain in power" if you are no longer in power.
PaP
2:16PM, Jan 22, 2021 UTC
@praine You explained from a neutral point of view, so it was objective and beautiful. Well done!
praine
11:20PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
Also, the decision logic and timeline make it pretty clear as to how it should be resolved. You guys are doing the opposite of what the MAGA guys are doing. Instead of trying to move the goalposts forward (ad infinitum), you are trying to cut the bet short.
praine
11:17PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
This bet said nothing that Trump had to be in power the entire time to pass as 'Yes'. As I said, this would resolve right after the inauguration if that had any bearing on the resolution. The 'still' that was once there was in relation to the fact that Trump was president at the time this bet was created, so even if he loses and regains power, he is 'still' the president when the bet resolves, despite the journey involved.
betterment
7:32PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
@Avalon And the title before you changed it as well as the description were enough to solve any potential inconsistencies to several other users and me.
betterment
7:30PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
@Avalon But you said an opposite thing to that here: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/trump-elected-president-in-2020-extended-betting-5177?comments=10
"As a general update; comments are irrelevant to our resolution process. We look primarily at the decision logic and timeline. If there are inconsistencies, we refer to the title and bet description (noting any edits (if any)). "
nsob
5:36PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
I think that the bet's intent was to see if Trump managed to stay in power for the full period Jan-Jun. If Trump managed to prevent Biden to be inaugurated, then Biden's side would have to try to revert this until June (for the sake of this bet). Yes would win if Trump was able to maintain power all this time. It happens that he did not.
Avalon
5:35PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
Title updated with the word 'still' removed to be consistent with the rest of the prop.
Avalon
5:30PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
We do not refer to the description to settle or early-close bets. We look at the decision logic and timeline - those are consistent with the idea that the host would like this open until Jun 1st. In addition, you still have users betting on Yes - this bet is whether Trump will regain power or otherwise be president on June 1st with no possible early resolutions.
jagsbeach
4:57PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
The description was clear about the timeline and open to wildly out of the norm scenarios. I’m expecting it’s still fair to dilute one side and shoot alien invasion odds on the other. Not my call tho.
f84jf85hg7g
2:20PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
@betterment The description says "still be President" and "remaining in power", so there's no ambiguity. He is no longer President and no longer in power, so even if he somehow took power in the future, the bet still resolved NO at the moment of inauguration.
f84jf85hg7g
2:15PM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
Aren't any post-inauguration bets invalid? FAQ says "Any bets placed after the outcome was known will be cut off and refunded."
AHamilton
11:03AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
@betterment. Correct. Thought of that after I posted. We just locked up our money for no reason...
betterment
7:41AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
@AHamilton This is going to get diluted to like 3% lol.
AHamilton
7:27AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
Admittedly, when I put the money down, I knew it was a bet not about Trump, but about whether the creator would try to resolve it earlier given the ambiguity. Congrats @praine on piling in late to get a 10% risk-free interest rate.
betterment
7:04AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
@Avalon There's a difference between staying in power until June 1st and seizing power between Jan 21st and June 1st until June 1st. It's a bit of a shame it's not possible to even message the creator of a bet to give his input on this ambiguity.
Avalon
5:49AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
@betterment Although we agree this prop is a little out there in terms of hypothetical scenarios, the host selected June 1st as the timeline for a reason - not Jan 21st which would have been the actual date to affirm the 'still' in power of the title. That said, the bets intent with the June timeline and the logic as written point to the theoretical scenario where Trump comes back to seize power one way or another.
betterment
3:00AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
"Let's say Trump uses the military to remain President because of some proof that courts refuse, how will the other bets deal with it? " - sounds like someone counting on military to help Trump remain in power and the bet was whether it's going to work unlike the so-called failed insurrection.
praine
12:25AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
Use your critical thinking skills. Why would this resolve in June if a Biden inauguration would produce a 'No'? It would resolve after the inauguration like AHamilton's and MAGABro's fixed odd's bets if that were the case. February at the latest. This facilitates further miracles, and you may not like that, but that's the way the host created it.
betterment
12:09AM, Jan 21, 2021 UTC
But this bet doesn't say anything about regaining power that Trump lost only about remaining in power, the author's intention seems pretty clear to me. There were 5 weeks for miracles to happen since the bet proposition was created, that time is now over.
praine
10:44PM, Jan 20, 2021 UTC
This is literally about the date and nothing more. Trump can weave in and out of the White House multiple times for what it's worth, all that matters is that he is the president on June 1st. While the betting could have been cut off, the bet itself can't resolve right now. You can think of it as a proposition that could only be resolved as 'Yes' by a miracle, but that's what the host wanted. So having it resolve now is changing the bet, and you can't do that.
betterment
7:37PM, Jan 20, 2021 UTC
@AHamilton Exactly. The entire first paragraph of the description exudes the popular thought of the Trump movement that Trump will come up with a way of remaining in power. "So this is about him remaining in power, wether people agree or not. "
AHamilton
6:19PM, Jan 20, 2021 UTC
"NO: Trump left and returned to "normal" life" He has, already.
AHamilton
6:17PM, Jan 20, 2021 UTC
@betterment, and then it says clearly: "this is about him remaining in power"... he's already no longer remaining in power...
betterment
4:33PM, Jan 20, 2021 UTC
@Avalon @AHamilton @praine
The title of the bet is "Will Donald Trump still be President in June 2021". "still" means that for the bet to resolve as YES Trump would need to seize power during Biden's inauguration at the latest or prevent it from happening, and remain in power until June.
praine
8:01AM, Jan 19, 2021 UTC
I don't see why you think he would do that. He made the decision logic the way he wanted it, and it is simple and strong. The betting deadline does point to extreme dilution, which @betterment called out early on, but that's not the host's problem. Especially since he bet on 'Yes'.
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